Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. 


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite solid 1Q23 result, share price performance for China's tourism and hospitality companies has been unexciting. This is unjustified and we expect a pick-up going forward.</li>
<li>While their earnings multiples are high at 31.0x and 21.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively, they should be interpreted in the context of impressive FY23-24 average EPS growth of 51.4%.</li>
<li>Anecdotal evidences showed that positive momentum will sustain - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-world-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> will stay as beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


Despite solid 1Q23 result, share price performance for China's tourism and hospitality companies has been unexciting. This is unjustified and we expect a pick-up going forward.
While their earnings multiples are high at 31.0x and 21.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively, they should be interpreted in the context of impressive FY23-24 average EPS growth of 51.4%.
Anecdotal evidences showed that positive momentum will sustain - Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), H World Group (1179 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) will stay as beneficiaries.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), Zijin Mining (2899 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK). 


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng index committee has added four stocks to take the number of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents to 80. A year late, but we're there!</li>
<li>The next leg of the increase in the number of index constituents will take us up to 100. There is no timeline, so this should take a couple of years.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.93% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.7bn (US$730m). All adds will have over 2x ADV to buy from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng index committee has added four stocks to take the number of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents to 80. A year late, but we're there!
The next leg of the increase in the number of index constituents will take us up to 100. There is no timeline, so this should take a couple of years.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.93% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.7bn (US$730m). All adds will have over 2x ADV to buy from passive trackers.


HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> has over 1x ADV to buy from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH)</a> trackers. The stock is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June but there are some free float changes and a bunch of capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.

Trip.com (9961 HK) has over 1x ADV to buy from Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) trackers. The stock is also an add to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI).


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

China

Trip.com Group Limited provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services. Trip.com Group provides services worldwide.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

We anticipate sustained earnings strength for China's tourism and hospitality industry following impressive 1Q23 results. This should underpin pick...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2023)

The June rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use todays closing prices for capping. The one-way trade across all stocks across the...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Rebalance: Yippee! Finally at 80!

The 4 adds get us to 80 members. The next leg up to 100 members should take a few years. 1-way turnover in June is 2.9% resulting in a 1-way trade...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes Lead to US$768m Two-Way Trade

Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% leading to a one-way trade of HK$3bn (US$384m). There are 3 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade. Trip.com is...

Brian Freitas

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