'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

- MARKET COMPOSITE -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/882/original/2019-02-24_11-07-12.png?1550974089" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79882"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>ALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY - The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above the Christmas Day low. The 'market value'-based percentage above moving averages almost reached a new three-month on Thursday; the stock count version is lagging as usual.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/886/original/2019-02-24_11-32-45.png?1550975583" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79886"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STILL SOME UPSIDE - Using the three-month rate of change in this indicator, we are a few weeks away from generating a short-term sell signal, the last such trigger having occurred on 25th October. <hr>- SECTORS - <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/887/original/2019-02-24_11-45-38.png?1550976349" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79887"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Transporation and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants and Healthcare replacing Media and Telecommunications. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction and Retail replacing Chemicals and Other Materials. <hr>- COMPANIES -COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. <div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26181" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26181:1">PKSHA Technology (3993 JP)</a> is currently the most extreme large capitalisation positive outlier and an excellent example of a -100 to 100 'roundtrip' in under two months. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> is, again, the most extreme negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list and is another 'round-tripper'. We also add the chart for 'cockroach' stock <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8244" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 (8848 JP)</a> which no longer qualifies for inclusion in our tables, having lost 60% of its value in the last two weeks and 79% in less than a year.
</div><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/890/original/2019-02-24_12-58-23.png?1550980729" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79890"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/891/original/2019-02-24_12-59-54.png?1550980806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79891"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/892/original/2019-02-24_13-12-58.png?1550981589" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79892"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>

- MARKET COMPOSITE -Source: Japan AnalyticsALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY - The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above the Christmas Day low. The 'market value'-based percentage above moving averages almost reached a new three-month on Thursday; the stock count version is lagging as usual.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTILL SOME UPSIDE - Using the three-month rate of change in this indicator, we are a few weeks away from generating a short-term sell signal, the last such trigger having occurred on 25th October. - SECTORS - 
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Transporation and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants and Healthcare replacing Media and Telecommunications. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction and Retail replacing Chemicals and Other Materials. - COMPANIES -COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
PKSHA Technology (3993 JP) is currently the most extreme large capitalisation positive outlier and an excellent example of a -100 to 100 'roundtrip' in under two months. SanBio (4592 JP) is, again, the most extreme negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list and is another 'round-tripper'. We also add the chart for 'cockroach' stock Leopalace21 (8848 JP) which no longer qualifies for inclusion in our tables, having lost 60% of its value in the last two weeks and 79% in less than a year.

Source: Japan Analytics


🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its strategtic partnerships, plus upcoming ICO for its subsidiary can make for interesting catalysts. Details are discussed in a three-part series.</li>
<li>In Part 2 of this three part series, we discuss the company's growth through partnerships and M&amp;A, financials, catalysts, and risks. </li>
</ul>


With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its strategtic partnerships, plus upcoming ICO for its subsidiary can make for interesting catalysts. Details are discussed in a three-part series.
In Part 2 of this three part series, we discuss the company's growth through partnerships and M&amp;A, financials, catalysts, and risks. 


Y Ventures: A Potential to Double (Part 2)

<ul class="">
<li>With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, Y Ventures Group (YVEN) might easily be overlooked by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its partnership with SingPost and a joint venture with a blockchain developer for its upcoming buyer platform, all make for interesting catalysts. Details will be discussed in a three-part series.</li>
<li>Part 1 presents some possible reasons for recent share price softness, an overview of YVEN’s business, its unique approach to e-commerce,  channel checks, and industry growth supportive for doubling its e-commerce revenues..</li>
<li>Part 2 discusses YVEN’s non-organic growth plans, financials, catalysts, valuation, and risks.</li>
<li>Part 3 discusses my views on the upcoming ICO for Luminore 8 (its subsidiary), which is the first ICO done by a listed company.</li>
</ul>


With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, Y Ventures Group (YVEN) might easily be overlooked by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce, its partnership with SingPost and a joint venture with a blockchain developer for its upcoming buyer platform, all make for interesting catalysts. Details will be discussed in a three-part series.
Part 1 presents some possible reasons for recent share price softness, an overview of YVEN’s business, its unique approach to e-commerce,  channel checks, and industry growth supportive for doubling its e-commerce revenues..
Part 2 discusses YVEN’s non-organic growth plans, financials, catalysts, valuation, and risks.
Part 3 discusses my views on the upcoming ICO for Luminore 8 (its subsidiary), which is the first ICO done by a listed company.


Y Ventures Group: A Potential to Double (Part 1)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global markets are holding at support levels and we reiterate, our neutral but constructive outlook . In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks within countries that are displaying bullish price and relative strength trends, including Japan, Hong Kong, Italy and Norway.

Global markets are holding at support levels and we reiterate, our neutral but constructive outlook . In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks within countries that are displaying bullish price and relative strength trends, including Japan, Hong Kong, Italy and Norway.

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight TOPIX, Hang Seng

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We screened for lesser known names (2 or fewer Analysts with coverage) in Japan that rebounded in September. Some of the larger names by mkt-cap that rebounded were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18346" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18346:1">Nipro Corp (8086 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1">Mitsubishi Logistics Corp (9301 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18567" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18567:1">Nissin Electric Co Ltd (6641 JP)</a>. We identified the rebounds using RSI or Relative Strength Index, which compares gains and losses over a specific period. <h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap is greater than ¥50bn and there are only 2 or fewer Analyst with coverage</li>
<li>Current RSI (1 month)…</li>
</ol>

We screened for lesser known names (2 or fewer Analysts with coverage) in Japan that rebounded in September. Some of the larger names by mkt-cap that rebounded were Nipro Corp (8086 JP), Mitsubishi Logistics Corp (9301 JP) and Nissin Electric Co Ltd (6641 JP). We identified the rebounds using RSI or Relative Strength Index, which compares gains and losses over a specific period. Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap is greater than ¥50bn and there are only 2 or fewer Analyst with coverage
Current RSI (1 month)…


Lesser Known Names that Rebounded in September....

Japan

Transcosmos Inc is an independent data processing company that provides software development services. The Company develops and manages electronic commerce systems, and also provides marketing support services.

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Transcosmos Inc (9715 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS

- MARKET COMPOSITE -ALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY - The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above...

Campbell Gunn

Y Ventures: A Potential to Double (Part 2)

With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, YVEN is easy to be passed up by fund managers. However, its data-centric approach to e-commerce,...

Valerie Law, CFA

Y Ventures Group: A Potential to Double (Part 1)

With a small market cap barely touching SGD 100m, Y Ventures Group (YVEN) might easily be overlooked by fund managers. However, its data-centric...

Valerie Law, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight TOPIX, Hang Seng

Global markets are holding at support levels and we reiterate, our neutral but constructive outlook . In today’s report we highlight actionable...

Vermilion Research

Lesser Known Names that Rebounded in September....

We screened for lesser known names (2 or fewer Analysts with coverage) in Japan that rebounded in September. Some of the larger names by mkt-cap...

Custom Products Group

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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