Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla faces stiffer competition in 2H 2022 as chip supplies at rivals recover faster than expected. This will put pricing pressure on Tesla amid rising costs. </li>
<li>Cash could be tight in 2H 2022 as Tesla ramps up 2 new factories. There is a distinct possibility of Tesla resorting to equity financing.</li>
<li>If the drop in Q2 earnings doesn't return to high growth again from Q3, Tesla could finally see its valuation fall down to earth. Its premium has already shrunk.  </li>
</ul>


Tesla faces stiffer competition in 2H 2022 as chip supplies at rivals recover faster than expected. This will put pricing pressure on Tesla amid rising costs. 
Cash could be tight in 2H 2022 as Tesla ramps up 2 new factories. There is a distinct possibility of Tesla resorting to equity financing.
If the drop in Q2 earnings doesn't return to high growth again from Q3, Tesla could finally see its valuation fall down to earth. Its premium has already shrunk.  


Tesla May Struggle as Rivals Rebuild Inventory

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.</li>
<li>There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. </li>
<li>Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. </li>
</ul>


The last of the three-leg rebalance for TOPIX and JPNK400 index weights takes place Wednesday 29 June at the close. This one is a bit larger than expected in April.
There were a large number of cancellations of shares by TSE Prime members in May which ups the predicted value to be traded. 
Interestingly, because lots of names have seen share cancellations and FFW drops, the average passive ownership of TSE Float (not other providers' float) has gone up significantly through this process. 


Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The third tranche of the FFW methodology change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June.</li>
<li>One-Way flow is ~JPY 742bn and will be spread across 2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> and the largest outflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest impact of inflows have outperformed stocks with the largest impact of outflows, but there has been underperformance over the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


The third tranche of the FFW methodology change for the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June.
One-Way flow is ~JPY 742bn and will be spread across 2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on NTT (9432 JP) and the largest outflow on Toyota Motor (7203 JP).
Stocks with the largest impact of inflows have outperformed stocks with the largest impact of outflows, but there has been underperformance over the last couple of weeks.


TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>In our next Webinar, we are excited to host Analyst Chris Redl (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sc-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:914" rel="noopener">SC Capital</a>) who will outline his stock picks in the global automotive sector. What do major automotive names look like amidst the EV revolution? Tune in to hear more.</p>
<h3>The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 29 June 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
<p>Subscribe to our podcast feed and listen on the go:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0eVtefGNCoU6q220ftsavT?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="232" style="border-radius: 12px;" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture"></iframe><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">SC Capital has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff), along with a wealth of industry contacts. The current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well. From time to time, SC Capital covers opportunistic events with stocks in the manufacturing sector, food &amp; beverage, healthcare, and tech.</span></p>

In our next Webinar, we are excited to host Analyst Chris Redl (SC Capital) who will outline his stock picks in the global automotive sector. What do major automotive names look like amidst the EV revolution? Tune in to hear more.
The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 29 June 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.
Subscribe to our podcast feed and listen on the go:
SC Capital has over 20 years' experience covering the global automotive industry both on the Sell-side (UBS &amp; Morgan Stanley) and Buy-side (Och-Ziff), along with a wealth of industry contacts. The current focus is on electric vehicle stocks &amp; their supply chains, aiming is to identify the winners and losers from a long/short perspective. This includes close coverage of legacy automakers as well. From time to time, SC Capital covers opportunistic events with stocks in the manufacturing sector, food &amp; beverage, healthcare, and tech.

Smartkarma Webinar | Global Automotive Stock Picks

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO in Jun 2021. </li>
<li>The shares are now trading well above the IPO price and its largest PE investor, Blackstone, will be released from its lockup soon.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO in Jun 2021. 
The shares are now trading well above the IPO price and its largest PE investor, Blackstone, will be released from its lockup soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Sona Comstar Lock-Up - Blackstone up 17x, Sold Half in the IPO with over US$1bn Left

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Toyota Motor (7203 JP)

Tesla May Struggle as Rivals Rebuild Inventory

A faster than expected recovery in automotive chip supply may put pressure on Tesla's profits as rivals will lower prices. This comes as Tesla...

SC Capital

Last Leg of TOPIX and JPNK400 FFW Rebal - ¥780bn One-Way Flow Wednesday

There are 2+ days until the last stage of the TSE FFW Rebalance is done. This time sees more changes because of increased share cancellation in...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

The third and final tranche of the FFW methodology change for the TOPIX Index will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June. One way flow...

Brian Freitas

Smartkarma Webinar | Global Automotive Stock Picks

On 29 June, 5pm SGT, join our Webinar where Analyst Chris Redl will outline his stock picks in the global automotive sector, amidst the EV revolution.

Smartkarma Research

Sona Comstar Lock-Up - Blackstone up 17x, Sold Half in the IPO with over US$1bn Left

Sona Comstar (Sona) raised around US$761m in its Indian IPO in Jun 2021. The shares are trading well above the IPO price. Blackstone still owns...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)