Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The growth in subscription services is a global phenomenon that has been growing just as fast in Japan as anywhere else. While most attention is given to music and media subscriptions, many brands and retailers of consumer goods are finding that the subscription model can be a key part of their online strategy, delivering multiple benefits across sales growth, customer data, marketing, inventory management and margin improvement.</p>

The growth in subscription services is a global phenomenon that has been growing just as fast in Japan as anywhere else. While most attention is given to music and media subscriptions, many brands and retailers of consumer goods are finding that the subscription model can be a key part of their online strategy, delivering multiple benefits across sales growth, customer data, marketing, inventory management and margin improvement.

The Subscription Economy: Keeping Customers Keen While Earning Recurring Revenues

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Lexus announced its new LF-Z EV concept yesterday, laying out broad plans for its electrification strategy and future development outlook. The brand has seen less news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing. This has implications for a variety of suppliers.</p>

Lexus announced its new LF-Z EV concept yesterday, laying out broad plans for its electrification strategy and future development outlook. The brand has seen less news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing. This has implications for a variety of suppliers.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Capitaland, Languang Justbon, Fast Retailing, Crown Resorts, Adani Power

<p>Yesterday Toyota, Hino and Isuzu announced a new partnership to accelerate development of commercial vehicles utilising CASE technologies. The move is something of a surprise given that Toyota and Isuzu previously ended their capital tie-up (formed in 2006 to develop diesel engines) in 2018 without anything of real substance coming to fruition. It is, however, an indication that the Japanese auto sector will continue to consolidate around Toyota as we have been saying for some time.</p>

Yesterday Toyota, Hino and Isuzu announced a new partnership to accelerate development of commercial vehicles utilising CASE technologies. The move is something of a surprise given that Toyota and Isuzu previously ended their capital tie-up (formed in 2006 to develop diesel engines) in 2018 without anything of real substance coming to fruition. It is, however, an indication that the Japanese auto sector will continue to consolidate around Toyota as we have been saying for some time.

Toyota – Isuzu Re-Tie-Up Drives Further Japanese Consolidation

Travis Lundy

<p>On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/BOJ-to-widen-interest-rate-target-range-to-support-bank-profits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said <em>"BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" </em>and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. </p><p>What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ <em>"would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."</em></p><p>The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). </p><p>This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/872/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.26.17+PM.png?1616311594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195872"></figure><p></p></section><p>Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. </p><p>The details are <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/rel210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. The presentation with the basic details is <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319b.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p><ul>
<li>The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).</li>
<li>Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.</li>
<li>The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.</li>
</ul><p>It based the new policy on the Reference <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2021/k210319c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">document</a> which backs up the changes in policy is <em>much</em> more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.</p><p>The hypotheses and results are described here.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/869/original/Screenshot+2021-03-21+at+3.02.28+PM.png?1616310186" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195869"></figure></section><p>There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </p></div><h3>What This Means</h3><ul>
<li>When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  </li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).</li>
<li>Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. </li>
</ul><h3>What This Does NOT Mean</h3><ul><li>It does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.</li></ul><hr><p>It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. </p><p>So we do so below the fold.</p><p>Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. </p>

On Thursday, the Nikkei came out with an article during the lunch break of equities trading. The headline said "BOJ to widen interest rate target range to support bank profits" and indeed in the article it noted that the BOJ would allow the long end of the curve to fluctuate more widely, creating a slightly steeper curve. This could lead to slightly better bank profits less because of the extra 5bp on the curve but more because of the expectation of forcing borrowers to pay more on an absolute basis. What was MORE important for equity markets was the idea that the BOJ "would also abolish its target for purchasing exchange-traded funds, now 6 trillion yen ($55 billion) per year, and instead vow to make such purchases only in times of market turmoil."The article also suggested that the "Target" would be removed for the ¥90bn of J-REITs they buy as a base case (doubled now to ¥180bn as the ¥6trln was doubled to ¥12trln in the depths of the covid crash of March 2020). This move caused Nikkei to underperform TOPIX on the day. TOPIX actually ended up on the day, and ended above where the market closed the AM session before the article came out. Nikkei fell, and started underperforming TOPIX from that point on. Nikkei underperformed TOPIX in the AM session on Friday, and when the BOJ announcements came mid-day on Friday, there were additional subtleties involved. The details are here. The presentation with the basic details is here.
The target rates for ETF and REIT buying will be abolished, but the current "Target Rate" of annual buying will become annual maxima (¥12 trillion for ETFs, ¥180bn for J-REITs, with ongoing maximum ownership limits on ETFs in place).
Buying of ETFs and J-REITs will be conducted "as necessary" "in times of market turbulence" and such buying will be done only on TOPIX ETFs.
The "Special Rules for Purchases of ETFs to Support Firms Proactively Investing in Physical and Human Capital" will continue as before with only specific ETFs permitted in this group. The amount of ~¥300bn/year and ¥1.2bn per business day will continue.
It based the new policy on the Reference document which backs up the changes in policy is much more interesting reading.  Appendix 5 and Chart 12 are the parts you want to read.The hypotheses and results are described here.There are a couple of other side conclusions but the base understanding is...When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  What This Means
When the BOJ steps into the market in size, in times of market turbulence, and when stocks are trading below their medium-term average, it has a greater effect per dollar spent on market-wide risk premia as measured in option premia than buying in normal times, and size matters when looking at the risk premia change on single stocks.  
Expect the BOJ to follow the concept of its study (Appendix 5 again).
Expect the BOJ to pay greater attention to futures activity. 
What This Does NOT MeanIt does NOT mean the BOJ will be selling any ETFs.It is worthwhile taking a look at WHY the market reacted the way it did on Thursday and Friday afternoon, and it is worthwhile looking at what the BOJ ETF buying might look like going forward. So we do so below the fold.Note: This is part 1 of the analysis of potential future BOJ ETF Buying. Part II looks at the difference in single stock makeup. 

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

The Subscription Economy: Keeping Customers Keen While Earning Recurring Revenues

Subscriptions to physical goods are rapidly becoming a popular model. In Japan, many major retailers and brands are creating subscriptions, gaining...

Michael Causton

Toyota – Electrifying Lexus

Lexus has seen less EV related news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing and has...

Mio Kato

Last Week in Event SPACE: Capitaland, Languang Justbon, Fast Retailing, Crown Resorts, Adani Power

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Toyota – Isuzu Re-Tie-Up Drives Further Japanese Consolidation

We believe the tie-up between Isuzu and Toyota is an indication that the Japanese auto sector will continue to consolidate around Toyota as we have...

Mio Kato

Quantifying the BOJ Change in ETF Policy: Assessing Future ETF Buying Methodology

The BOJ has announced a change in ETF Buying Program Parameters. The study/review they did is required reading to understand how they might buy...

Travis Lundy

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