Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Toyota has been in the news of late as it has decided to <a href="https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-charges-into-electrified-future-in-the-u-s-with-10-year-3-4-billion-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">invest $3.4bn in a battery plant in the US</a>, <a href="https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/36192173.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced a target of 850-900k production units for Nov</a> (vs. 500-600k in Sep and Oct) and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Nippon-Steel-sues-Toyota-China-s-Baoshan-over-patent-infringement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gotten embroiled in a dispute between Nippon Steel and Baoshan</a>.

Toyota has been in the news of late as it has decided to invest $3.4bn in a battery plant in the US, announced a target of 850-900k production units for Nov (vs. 500-600k in Sep and Oct) and gotten embroiled in a dispute between Nippon Steel and Baoshan.

Toyota – All-Time High Production Despite “Cuts”, A US Battery Factory and Nippon Steel Dispute

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Among active Global managers, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks are the 3rd largest country/sector holding in the Asia region.  Average fund weights sit behind Taiwan Tech and Japan Industrials at 1.07%, with 57.1% of the 380 funds in our analysis invested in the sector with combined AUM of $9.18bn.Measured against other Asian country/sectors, changes in fund ownership have been positive and among the highest across all measures over the last 6-months.  Against a backdrop of plummeting exposure in China Consumer Discretionary stocks, average weights, funds invested, cash flows and the balance of buyers vs sellers were all positive for Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks.  Infact, across most ownership metrics, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks have overtaken, or at least closed to gap to China Consumer Discretionary stocks since the 'Tech Crackdown' in October of 2020.  We can see evidence of this rotation on a fund level, with Aberdeen's Global Unconstrained Fund, LBPAM's Actions Monde and BNY Mellon's Global Opportunities Fund examples of managers rotating from China Consumer Discretionary and into Japan since October 2020.Analysis taken from our Global research, covering 380 active Global strategies with combined AUM of $1.1bn

Among active Global managers, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks are the 3rd largest country/sector holding in the Asia region.  Average fund weights sit behind Taiwan Tech and Japan Industrials at 1.07%, with 57.1% of the 380 funds in our analysis invested in the sector with combined AUM of $9.18bn.Measured against other Asian country/sectors, changes in fund ownership have been positive and among the highest across all measures over the last 6-months.  Against a backdrop of plummeting exposure in China Consumer Discretionary stocks, average weights, funds invested, cash flows and the balance of buyers vs sellers were all positive for Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks.  Infact, across most ownership metrics, Japan Consumer Discretionary stocks have overtaken, or at least closed to gap to China Consumer Discretionary stocks since the 'Tech Crackdown' in October of 2020.  We can see evidence of this rotation on a fund level, with Aberdeen's Global Unconstrained Fund, LBPAM's Actions Monde and BNY Mellon's Global Opportunities Fund examples of managers rotating from China Consumer Discretionary and into Japan since October 2020.Analysis taken from our Global research, covering 380 active Global strategies with combined AUM of $1.1bn

Japan Consumer Discretionary:  Benefiting from China's Downfall

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Post Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div>The Japanese government plans to sell over 26% or US$8bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).</a> We've covered most most aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-placement-the-final-us-8bn-countdown-past-deal-didn-t-do-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well</a>. </div><div>In this note, we will talk about the updates and the share price performance so far.</div>

The Japanese government plans to sell over 26% or US$8bn worth of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP). We've covered most most aspects of the deal in our previous note, Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well. In this note, we will talk about the updates and the share price performance so far.

Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Shaping up Better than the Last Deal

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Cross Asset Strategy

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

Toyota – All-Time High Production Despite “Cuts”, A US Battery Factory and Nippon Steel Dispute

Toyota has been in the news as it has decided to invest $3.4bn in a US battery plant, announced a target of 850-900k production units for Nov and...

Mio Kato

Japan Consumer Discretionary: Benefiting from China's Downfall

Against a backdrop of plummeting exposure in China Consumer Discretionary stocks, active Global managers have pivoted towards the Japan Consumer...

Steven Holden

Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Shaping up Better than the Last Deal

The Japanese government plans to sell over 26% or US$8bn worth of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP). In this note, we will talk about the updates and...

Sumeet Singh

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above...

Mio Kato

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

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