Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Toyota’s 3Q results were in-line with revenue and OP 2% above consensus and a slight QoQ improvement. </li>
<li>The FY production plan was revised down as expected though we see slight upside to the 8.25m unit plan. </li>
<li>Toyota has now averaged ¥853bn in OP over the last six pandemic driven quarters.</li>
</ul>


Toyota’s 3Q results were in-line with revenue and OP 2% above consensus and a slight QoQ improvement. 
The FY production plan was revised down as expected though we see slight upside to the 8.25m unit plan. 
Toyota has now averaged ¥853bn in OP over the last six pandemic driven quarters.


Toyota – In-Line 3Q Sets Up Strong 4Q Beat

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a></strong>'s implied stub and simple ratio with 8.5%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a></strong> has significantly bifurcated in the last 12 months. </li>
<li>Yet recent and forward earnings at the stub level indicate this dislocation is unjustified. </li>
<li>Toyota Industries is a set up at this current level. </li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)'s implied stub and simple ratio with 8.5%-held Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has significantly bifurcated in the last 12 months. 
Yet recent and forward earnings at the stub level indicate this dislocation is unjustified. 
Toyota Industries is a set up at this current level. 


Toyota Industries Back To Covid Lows Vs. Toyota Motors

<ul>
<li>We have pointed out previously that the hype surrounding Tesla’s FSD system was delusional. </li>
<li>We have always regarded their differentiating factor as simply being a greater risk tolerance for endangering the lives of their customers. </li>
<li>However, some automakers are actually making efforts to improve safety… and they actually know what they are doing.</li>
</ul>


We have pointed out previously that the hype surrounding Tesla’s FSD system was delusional. 
We have always regarded their differentiating factor as simply being a greater risk tolerance for endangering the lives of their customers. 
However, some automakers are actually making efforts to improve safety… and they actually know what they are doing.


Toyota – So About That Whole Tesla Being Years Ahead of The Competition in Autonomous Thing…

<ul>
<li>After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.</li>
<li>It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. </li>
<li>Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.</li>
</ul>


After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.
It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. 
Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Toyota-plans-to-make-record-11m-cars-in-fiscal-year-starting-April" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The Nikkei is reporting</a> that Toyota has set internal production targets of 11m units for the fiscal year ending March 2023. </li>
<li>That would imply a more than 20% YoY increase in production volumes. </li>
<li>And that in turn is very positive news not just for Toyota but for several other auto-related names.</li>
</ul>



 The Nikkei is reporting that Toyota has set internal production targets of 11m units for the fiscal year ending March 2023. 
That would imply a more than 20% YoY increase in production volumes. 
And that in turn is very positive news not just for Toyota but for several other auto-related names.


Toyota – 11m Unit Production Target Is a Positive Surprise

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

Toyota – In-Line 3Q Sets Up Strong 4Q Beat

Toyota has now averaged ¥853bn in OP over the last six pandemic driven quarters and consensus estimates fail to appreciate the potential gains once...

Mio Kato

Toyota Industries Back To Covid Lows Vs. Toyota Motors

Unless the market were assigning a significantly reduced valuation for the stub ops, this protracted bifurcation is unjustified. As it is, an EBIT...

David Blennerhassett

Toyota – So About That Whole Tesla Being Years Ahead of The Competition in Autonomous Thing…

We have pointed out previously that the hype surrounding Tesla’s FSD system was delusional. Meanwhile, Toyota is actually doing some innovative...

Mio Kato

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off. It is now...

Mio Kato

Toyota – 11m Unit Production Target Is a Positive Surprise

Toyota has set internal production targets of 11m units for the FY23 implying a more than 20% YoY increase which is very positive news not just for...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)