Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. </li>
<li>As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.</li>
</ul>


Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int'l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.


Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The agreement helps Intel fill up some long-underutilised fab capacity at their Rio Rancho, New Mexico facility</li>
<li>Tower likely gets a bargain-basement opportunity to increase their percentage of 300mm wafer capacity</li>
<li>Tower's automotive business grew from 11% of revenues in 2022 to 19% of revenues in H1'23. Greater 300mm capacity will help them meet this demand once foundry starts to recover. </li>
</ul>


The agreement helps Intel fill up some long-underutilised fab capacity at their Rio Rancho, New Mexico facility
Tower likely gets a bargain-basement opportunity to increase their percentage of 300mm wafer capacity
Tower's automotive business grew from 11% of revenues in 2022 to 19% of revenues in H1'23. Greater 300mm capacity will help them meet this demand once foundry starts to recover. 


Intel's Deal With Tower Semi Is Basically A Rent-A-Fab Scheme

<ul>
<li>Tower to collect a cool $353 million termination fee from Intel</li>
<li>Intel claims its foundry ambition to become the global #2 by end of the decade remains unchanged</li>
<li>The key thing Intel needed from Tower was access to its broad, diverse portfolio of specialty process technologies. These will take Intel years to develop on their own.  </li>
</ul>


Tower to collect a cool $353 million termination fee from Intel
Intel claims its foundry ambition to become the global #2 by end of the decade remains unchanged
The key thing Intel needed from Tower was access to its broad, diverse portfolio of specialty process technologies. These will take Intel years to develop on their own.  


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The role has been vacant for &gt; 3 months. Why wait till now to chose an obvious in-situ candidate?</li>
<li>Closure date for the Tower acquisition has been pushed out to H1 2023 from Q1 2023 according to an Intel filing on January 27 last</li>
<li>Intel's fortunes have changed dramatically for the worse over the past year. It's debatable whether the Tower acquisition makes sense any more. </li>
</ul>


The role has been vacant for &gt; 3 months. Why wait till now to chose an obvious in-situ candidate?
Closure date for the Tower acquisition has been pushed out to H1 2023 from Q1 2023 according to an Intel filing on January 27 last
Intel's fortunes have changed dramatically for the worse over the past year. It's debatable whether the Tower acquisition makes sense any more. 


Intel Foundry Chief Announcement Spells Trouble For The Tower Semi Acquisition

Israel

Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TowerJazz) is an independent foundry providing semiconductor integrated circuits manufacturing & related design services. The Company manufactures wafers using its technologies & production capability and the proprietary designs of its customers. TowerJazz's integrated circuits are incorporated into a wide range of products in diverse markets.

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Tower Semiconductor (TSEM US)

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullbacks in $EFA $ACWX as they hold above $80 and $53.50 supports; Europe and Japan also buyable pullbacks to uptrend supports; Market...

Vermilion Research

Intel's Deal With Tower Semi Is Basically A Rent-A-Fab Scheme

Intel's recently announced "Capacity Corridor" deal with Tower help them fill up some long-underutilised fab capacity at their Rio Rancho, New...

William Keating

Intel Terminates Tower Semi Deal

Tower to collect a cool $353 million termination fee. Intel claims its foundry ambition remains unchanged, but not gaining access to Tower's...

William Keating

Intel Foundry Chief Announcement Spells Trouble For The Tower Semi Acquisition

Waiting >3 months to finally fill the role with an obvious in-situ candidate strongly suggests that the original plan has fallen apart. We think...

William Keating

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