Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.</li>
<li>The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. </li>
<li>Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) sees its AGM next week with new directors and a possible privatisation process ongoing. But the AGM is a done deal and privatisation is not.
The event-i-ness of Toshiba keeps it "supported" while its better-valued and higher-growth peers fall harder in the face of recent overall market weakness. 
Toshiba promised transparency on its privatisation process, and so far, it has delivered everything it promised. The next "transparency" likely comes in November. 


Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

<ul>
<li>Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.</li>
<li>On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April</li>
<li>First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...</li>
</ul>


Since Toshiba reported lacklustre earnings and guidance, there has been a steady flow of articles in the press about the privatisation process going on behind the scenes.
On 25 March, Toshiba let it be known a privatisation process would start. On 31 March, Bain gave notice it would participate. Toshiba has been in talks since 21 April
First round bids were due 30 May, and 10 total submissions were made, with 8 privatisation proposals proffered. Now we wait...


Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. </li>
<li>The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. </li>
<li>In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba provided an update today on its management policy and the status of discussions with potential investors. 
The management targets unveiled looked plausible but rather optimistic while the only real new information on the potential privatisation was that 8 bids had been submitted. 
In the end the most interesting takeaway for us was that Toshiba Tec would play a key role in Toshiba’s data business.


Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announces <em>meh-to-weak</em> earnings and <em>surprisingly conservative</em> revenue guidance for next year given better order books and backlog and much higher USD/yen.</li>
<li>The company announced a slightly higher March 2022 dividend (giving money to past shareholders) and a big special dividend and higher March 2023 dividend.</li>
<li>The Privatisation Proposal Process continues. It may get a result, or not. New director choices will wait. Now we start a quiet period where privatisation news competes with analyst bearishness.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announces meh-to-weak earnings and surprisingly conservative revenue guidance for next year given better order books and backlog and much higher USD/yen.
The company announced a slightly higher March 2022 dividend (giving money to past shareholders) and a big special dividend and higher March 2023 dividend.
The Privatisation Proposal Process continues. It may get a result, or not. New director choices will wait. Now we start a quiet period where privatisation news competes with analyst bearishness.


Toshiba (6502) - Iffy Earnings, Worse Projections, A Special Div, But Privatisation Process Proceeds

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announced that it will start a sale process by offering info, and running a two-round "strategic alternative" process. Info and non-binding proposals followed by due dili and binding proposals.</li>
<li>For me, this seems like "That One Piece Of News" which is required to make the range jump, and to get people into Now-We-Are-Going-To-Get-A-Deal. </li>
<li>We may not, of course, and it will be a long, complicated road. But this is a step change. Starting a beauty contest is a big deal.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announced that it will start a sale process by offering info, and running a two-round "strategic alternative" process. Info and non-binding proposals followed by due dili and binding proposals.
For me, this seems like "That One Piece Of News" which is required to make the range jump, and to get people into Now-We-Are-Going-To-Get-A-Deal. 
We may not, of course, and it will be a long, complicated road. But this is a step change. Starting a beauty contest is a big deal.


Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have "That One Piece Of News"

Japan

TOSHIBA TEC CORPORATION manufactures electronic equipment for distribution system, document processing, and household use.  The Company's products include Point of Sale (POS) systems, bar code scanners, copy machines, printers, and vacuum cleaners.

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Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)

Toshiba (6502) Strong Vs Peers on No News Means Susceptible to Risk On Underperformance

Weak earnings/forecasts and 3yr highs vs Peers make Toshiba's relative valuation un-compelling. Lack of near-term news means on a risk-on rebound,...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have the First Rounds Bids In, And We Wait, But It's Top of Range

Toshiba today announced a comprehensive deck with a Management Policy update, which is a very interesting read. They also announced they had...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Key Takeaway Is Toshiba Tec’s Attractiveness

Toshiba's presentation today offered little new aside from rather optimistic "LT" targets but we believe it highlighted the enormous strategic...

Mio Kato

Toshiba (6502) - Iffy Earnings, Worse Projections, A Special Div, But Privatisation Process Proceeds

Toshiba (6502) reported disappointing earnings in the infra business and what appears to be conservative revenue guidance. But they offer regular...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) - Now We Have "That One Piece Of News"

Toshiba has started a beauty contest process. There will be two stages, and the news on Stage I will only come after the AGM (Toshiba's pushback to...

Travis Lundy

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