Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JIP TOB for Toshiba is here. Finally. It is still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.</li>
<li>But it is not clear that activists who pushed this for years want to push any more. There appears to be Toshiba Fatigue, as I warned in March.</li>
<li>That makes this deal look "safe" but there are technical aspects which make it less "comfortable" than normal large and long-awaited deals. </li>
</ul>


The JIP TOB for Toshiba is here. Finally. It is still too low. Since the announcement, when it was too low, peers are up a lot, and memory looks healthier.
But it is not clear that activists who pushed this for years want to push any more. There appears to be Toshiba Fatigue, as I warned in March.
That makes this deal look "safe" but there are technical aspects which make it less "comfortable" than normal large and long-awaited deals. 


JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebixcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36390:1" rel="noopener">EbixCash (EBIXC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/e-guardian-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10629:1" rel="noopener">E Guardian Inc (6050 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>.     </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), EbixCash (EBIXC IN), Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK) and Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - E Guardian Inc (6050 JP), Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM).     


Weekly Deals Digest (06 Aug) - Toshiba, E-Guardian, ITOCHU, Allkem, Symbio, Pacific Current, MPI

<ul>
<li>On 28 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> disclosed that JIP delayed the tender start to “sometime in August 2023” vs the target “in the last ten days of July 2023.”</li>
<li>Toshiba reports 1Q results on 7 August. A solid 1Q will undermine the Board’s recommendation of the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic.</li>
<li>The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip away at the offer’s attractiveness. </li>
</ul>


On 28 July, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) disclosed that JIP delayed the tender start to “sometime in August 2023” vs the target “in the last ten days of July 2023.”
Toshiba reports 1Q results on 7 August. A solid 1Q will undermine the Board’s recommendation of the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic.
The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip away at the offer’s attractiveness. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as 1Q Results and Tender Start Approach

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Toshiba announced on Friday that JIP’s upcoming tender offer would not make the July end deadline. </li>
<li>At this point delays for Toshiba are par for the course and we do not think anything needs to be read into this. </li>
<li>With earnings coming up next week we examine the likely trends and the possibility of a revision to guidance.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba announced on Friday that JIP’s upcoming tender offer would not make the July end deadline. 
At this point delays for Toshiba are par for the course and we do not think anything needs to be read into this. 
With earnings coming up next week we examine the likely trends and the possibility of a revision to guidance.


<ul>
<li>It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba's Board supported it.</li>
<li>There's been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That's now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. </li>
<li>But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. </li>
</ul>


It has been four months since JIP officially announced their intention to launch a Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) by end-July. 7 weeks since Toshiba's Board supported it.
There's been no material public griping. Peers are sharply higher. There have been news stories suggesting a Western Digital/Kioxia deal is close. That's now extended. The Toshiba deal possibly too. 
But huge outperformance by peers, and possible clarity from Kioxia deal terms are unlikely to move the Toshiba Board to demand more. 


Toshiba (6502) Tender - Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

Japan

Seibu Holdings Inc. offers diversified operation. The Company through its subsidiary companies operates transportation, construction, hotel, leisure facilities, and real estate business. Seibu Holdings provides group enterprises strategy planning, operation management, asset management and supply, and business promotions.

Keihan Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides passenger rail and bus transportation in Osaka and Kyoto prefectures.  The Company operates department stores, hotels, travel agents, and restaurants in the vicinity of its railway system.  The Company leases and sells real estate and offers a wide range of construction works.

Nisshinbo Holdings Inc. manufactures cotton fabrics, synthetic textiles, and chemical products used in apparel and industrial materials.  The Company also makes a variety of paper products, electronics products for wireless communication devices and semiconductors, and specialized machines for industrial manufacturing. In addition, Nisshinbo makes brakes for automobiles.

TOKAI Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through reorganization of TOKAI CORPORATION and VIC TOKAI CORPORATION.  The Group mainly provides energy business and information-communication business.  TOKAI Holdings Corporation also provides construction and real estate, bridal and insurance and security businesses.

Katakura Industries Co., Ltd. operates in a range of business segments. The Company manfucatures and sells clothing and textile products, pharmaceutical products, automobile parts, fire pump cars and agricultural machinery. Katakura also operates shopping and home centers, the leasing of real estate and the provision of building management services.

Mie Kotsu Group Holdings, Inc. through its subsidiaries, provides bus and taxi transportation services in Mie prefecture. The company also sells, leases and manages houses, apartment and commercial facilities. In addition, Mie Kotsu operates department stores, hotels, and leisure-related services and construction works.

OBAYASHI CORPORATION is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds commercial, residential, institutional buildings with earthquake-resistant technology.  Obayashi also performs civil engineering works for such as railroads.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates real estate, golf course, and financial businesses.

KAJIMA CORPORATION is a general contractor operating nationwide and overseas. The Company builds commercial, residential, and institutional buildings with high-rise and earthquake-resistant construction technology.  Kajima also performs large scale civil engineering works such as nuclear power plants. The Company operates real estate and office automation equipment businesses.

Nippi, Incorporated. manufactures gelatin and collagen peptides for food products, health foods, and pharmaceutical, photographic film and printing paper.  The Company manufactures leather for shoes, bags, car interiors and clothing.

Minebea Mitsumi manufactures and markets miniature and instrument ball bearings.  The Company also makes DC motors, servo motors, stepping motors, spindle motors, pivot assemblies, rod-end and spherical bearings, fasteners, and computer keyboards. Minebea Mitsumi has production facilities in Thailand and Singapore.

Keppel Corporation Limited's core businesses are offshore and marine, infrastructure, property investment and development, telecommunications and transportation, energy, and engineering.

Samsung C&T Corporation conducts diversified business support services and resort operation activities. The Company offers a range of services in areas including clothing retail, construction, energy, real estate, food service, and resort accommodations. Samsung C&T also operates a resort with amusement rides, a zoo, water park, golf clubs, and restaurants.

LG Corp. is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including LG Electronics, LG Household & Health Care, LG Chem Ltd., and Dacom Corp. The Company's main business areas are electronics, chemicals, and household products manufacturing and telecommunications services.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

SM Investments Corporation is an investment holding company. The Company operates retail business and develops shopping mall and other real estate property.  The Company also provides tourism services.

Smiths Group plc is a global technology company.  The company delivers products and services for the threat & contraband detection, medical devices, energy and communications market worldwide.

Lifco AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides dental products, machinery and tools, sawmill equipment, contract manufacturing, vehicle interiors, and environmental technology. Lifco offers its products through a network of subsidiaries and partnerships worldwide.

Grupo Carso SAB de CV is a holding company with subsidiaries in the construction ,retail and industrial materials industries. The Company's products and services include: oil platform construction; shoping centers, industrial facilities and corporate buildings construction; highway construction; dam and aqueduct construction; steel tubes; and housing.

KOC Holding A.S. is a holding company. The Company has interests in manufacturers of automobiles, household appliances, consumer electronics, textiles, construction materials and other goods, food processers, liquefied petroleum gas distributors, insurance, factoring, lease financing, and securities brokerage companies, and banks.

Enka Insaat ve Sanayi AS provides construction and construction related services worldwide. The Company builds infrastructure, commercial projects and factories. The manufacturing subsidiaries produce construction materials, steel pipes, windows and hand tools. The Group also imports and distributes industrial machinery in Turkey.

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here

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Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (06 Aug) - Toshiba, E-Guardian, ITOCHU, Allkem, Symbio, Pacific Current, MPI

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Toshiba, E-Guardian, Itochu Techno, MPI, Allkem, PAC, Symbio, United Malt) and ECM...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as 1Q Results and Tender Start Approach

The current low spread points to a done deal, partly due to shareholder fatigue. However, risks persist as the rerating of peers continues to chip...

Arun George

Toshiba – Earnings Preview 1QFY24

With earnings coming up next week we examine the likely trends and the possibility of a revision to guidance given strong performance for the...

Mio Kato

Toshiba (6502) Tender - Certainly Cheaper. Maybe Delayed, But Toshiba Fatigue Is Strong

Toshiba has sharply underperformed a broad peer basket since March. Too cheap has become cheaper. A Kioxia valuation input may arrive, but I expect...

Travis Lundy

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