Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.</li>
<li>The impact on the stocks is small but this is not a widely tracked index, so there could still be opportunities for some high risk/reward basket trades.</li>
<li>With Northbound Stock Connect eligibility no longer drawing on the SSE180 Index constituents, the index could lose relevance over time.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
The impact on the stocks is small but this is not a widely tracked index, so there could still be opportunities for some high risk/reward basket trades.
With Northbound Stock Connect eligibility no longer drawing on the SSE180 Index constituents, the index could lose relevance over time.


SSE180 Index Rebalance: Small Impact but Not Widely Tracked

Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co., / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 50 changes a side for the CSI 500 Index at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 12.64% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.3bn. The Materials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors are net gainers.</li>
<li>9 adds to the CSI 500 Index are deletes from the CSI 300 Index while 7 deletes from the CSI 500 Index are adds to the CSI 300 Index.</li>
</ul>


There are 50 changes a side for the CSI 500 Index at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 December.
One-Way turnover at the rebalance is estimated at 12.64% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.3bn. The Materials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors are net gainers.
9 adds to the CSI 500 Index are deletes from the CSI 300 Index while 7 deletes from the CSI 500 Index are adds to the CSI 300 Index.


CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover

Haohua Chemical Science & Tech / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With a day left in the review period, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI500 Index at the close on 9 December.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.53% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.01bn. The Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors are net gainers.</li>
<li>The potential adds and potential deletes have performed in line over the last few weeks, and we'd look to position for outperformance post the end of the review period.</li>
</ul>


With a day left in the review period, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI500 Index at the close on 9 December.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.53% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.01bn. The Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors are net gainers.
The potential adds and potential deletes have performed in line over the last few weeks, and we'd look to position for outperformance post the end of the review period.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Adds/Deletes in December

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period for the December rebalance of the CSI500 Index, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) at the close on 9 December.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.53bn.
The potential adds have outperformed over the last 6 months but have given up some of the gains recently as market turned volatile. Expect outperformance as the review period ends.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There were 21 changes to the index at the June 2020 review and 26 changes at the December 2020 review. We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.56%.With passive tracking products holding around US$32bn of AUM, plus another US$53bn in open interest on the listed futures, plus active managers benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>, there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names from now to the end of the review period. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off. There should not be too many changes in the possible list of inclusions and exclusions due to the averaging process over the last year of trading.

The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) consists of stocks from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and is one of the most widely tracked A-share indices with passive tracking products listed in multiple markets globally. There are CFFEX listed futures that trade actively as well.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.There were 21 changes to the index at the June 2020 review and 26 changes at the December 2020 review. We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.56%.With passive tracking products holding around US$32bn of AUM, plus another US$53bn in open interest on the listed futures, plus active managers benchmarked to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX), there could be significant moves in the inclusion/exclusion names from now to the end of the review period. There will only be 9-10 trading days between the announcement of the changes and the implementation, so having a pre-position should pay off. There should not be too many changes in the possible list of inclusions and exclusions due to the averaging process over the last year of trading.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Number of Changes

China

TongKun Group Co., Ltd. develops, produces and sells polyester and Terylene filament.  The Company also invests in real estate, finance, business trade and education businesses.

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Tongkun Group Co Ltd A (601233 CH)

SSE180 Index Rebalance: Small Impact but Not Widely Tracked

There are 18 changes for the SSE180 Index in June. The index is not widely tracked and there could be opportunities for long/short basket trades...

Brian Freitas

CSI 500 Index Rebalance: 50 Changes a Side Leads to 12%+ One-Way Turnover

There are 50 adds/deletes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is 12.6% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9bn. There are 16 overlaps between the...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Adds/Deletes in December

We expect 50 adds/deletes at the December rebalance with one-way turnover expected to be over 13% & the one-way trade around CNY 8bn. There is a...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Positioned for Outperformance

There could be 50 changes to the index in December. We estimate a one-way turnover of 13.67% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Number of Changes

We see 30 potential inclusions/exclusions to the CSI300 index at the June review that will become effective COB 11 June. With a lot of benchmarked...

Brian Freitas

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