Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>The index changes and the indicative component weights for the December 2023 index review will be published in a couple of weeks.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The index changes and the indicative component weights for the December 2023 index review will be published in a couple of weeks.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.


Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: US$512mn One-Way Flows if the Expected Change Takes Place

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.</li>
<li>There could be one ADD and one DELETE for HSTECH in December 2023 but I would treat them as low-conviction changes.</li>
<li>At present, I see one-way flows for the December 2023 rebalance to be around US$250mn but as prices change, our index change and flow expectations will change too.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in December 2023.
There could be one ADD and one DELETE for HSTECH in December 2023 but I would treat them as low-conviction changes.
At present, I see one-way flows for the December 2023 rebalance to be around US$250mn but as prices change, our index change and flow expectations will change too.


Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.</li>
<li>While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.</li>
<li>We like OTAs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> stays as the top pick.</li>
</ul>


Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY</li>
<li>If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery </li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound and domestic air traffic activity improved sharply Y/Y in the January-February LNY travel period, but activity remains far below pre-Covid levels
Given constrained outbound air capacity, we're surprised to see relatively low (65-66%) passenger load factors reported by the leading Chinese airlines during LNY
If planes don't begin to fill up with Chinese tourists soon, we believe some investors may become disappointed in the pace of China's travel recovery 


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: US$512mn One-Way Flows if the Expected Change Takes Place

If Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) gets added Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) could get deleted but I see these as low-conviction index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way

I see Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) as a low-conviction ADD and Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) as a low-conviction DEL for HSTECH in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: US$512mn One-Way Flows if the Expected Change Takes Place

If Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) gets added Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) could get deleted but I see these as low-conviction index...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity HSTECH Dec 23 Flow Expectations: One Low-Conviction Change, US$250mn One-Way

I see Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) as a low-conviction ADD and Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) as a low-conviction DEL for HSTECH in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

​China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Tourism: LNY Traffic Points to Slow Recovery in 2023

Jan-Feb air traffic shows the beginnings of a recovery in Chinese travel activity, but we're surprised to see outbound flights with load factors of...

Tracking Traffic

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...