Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>Stock price increases only at the "TSE's request" are anticipatory, and conversely, the gap with JPX Prime 150 Index components, which attract the attention of overseas investors, may widen.</li>
<li>"TSE’s Request" effect is that TSE has changed the game by making it easier to compare managers of different companies according to P/B, thereby increasing managers' awareness of stock prices.</li>
<li>Just as all companies worked to "conserve energy" and become more competitive during the oil crisis, many companies' stock valuations will rise in environment where managers must change their mindset.</li>
</ul>


Stock price increases only at the "TSE's request" are anticipatory, and conversely, the gap with JPX Prime 150 Index components, which attract the attention of overseas investors, may widen.
"TSE’s Request" effect is that TSE has changed the game by making it easier to compare managers of different companies according to P/B, thereby increasing managers' awareness of stock prices.
Just as all companies worked to "conserve energy" and become more competitive during the oil crisis, many companies' stock valuations will rise in environment where managers must change their mindset.


"TSE's Request" Could Be a Harvest that Has Made It Easier to Compare Managers with Stock Valuations

<ul>
<li>TSE may be trying to dodge criticism that prime market, which includes many illiquid companies, has large gap with the concept of a "market that global investors can invest in."</li>
<li>JPX Prime 150 Index is expected to solve the problem of TOPIX buying up companies of low quality and not engaging with companies due to the large number of components.</li>
<li>Neither index is expected to differ much in performance since they are both market capitalization-weighted indices, but the difference in component stocks compared to TOPIX will provide investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


TSE may be trying to dodge criticism that prime market, which includes many illiquid companies, has large gap with the concept of a "market that global investors can invest in."
JPX Prime 150 Index is expected to solve the problem of TOPIX buying up companies of low quality and not engaging with companies due to the large number of components.
Neither index is expected to differ much in performance since they are both market capitalization-weighted indices, but the difference in component stocks compared to TOPIX will provide investment opportunities.


New Index Distracts from Prime Market Issues While Providing Long/Short Opportunities for Investors

<ul>
<li>While the listing criteria aren't consistent with the initial concept of the prime market, "investment targets for global investors," "transitional" companies that don't meet those listing criteria are allowed listing.</li>
<li>Delisting through TOB or MBO will lead to the metabolism of listed companies and maintain the quality of the TSE as an "investment target for global investors" market.</li>
<li>It is not about bringing "transitional" companies into compliance with the listing criteria of the prime market, but about modifying the listing criteria to the original concept of the market.</li>
</ul>


While the listing criteria aren't consistent with the initial concept of the prime market, "investment targets for global investors," "transitional" companies that don't meet those listing criteria are allowed listing.
Delisting through TOB or MBO will lead to the metabolism of listed companies and maintain the quality of the TSE as an "investment target for global investors" market.
It is not about bringing "transitional" companies into compliance with the listing criteria of the prime market, but about modifying the listing criteria to the original concept of the market.


Rather, Listing Criteria for Prime Market Should Be Modified to the Original Concept of the Market

<ul>
<li>As for "liquidity," one of the problems of TSE market restructuring, if the selection criteria for TOPIX components are raised, fewer companies will be forced to cling to prime market.</li>
<li>Regarding "engagement" challenge, a solution is reducing the number of TOPIX components, since low fees and many portfolio companies of passive funds prevent investment managers from devoting resources to engagements.</li>
<li>Regarding "sustainable growth" challenge, inflation would be a catalyst for learning from history, where an environment that forced all companies to change caused a change in the mindset of managers.</li>
</ul>


As for "liquidity," one of the problems of TSE market restructuring, if the selection criteria for TOPIX components are raised, fewer companies will be forced to cling to prime market.
Regarding "engagement" challenge, a solution is reducing the number of TOPIX components, since low fees and many portfolio companies of passive funds prevent investment managers from devoting resources to engagements.
Regarding "sustainable growth" challenge, inflation would be a catalyst for learning from history, where an environment that forced all companies to change caused a change in the mindset of managers.


To Make the TSE Prime Market in Line with the Original Concept of the Market

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

"TSE's Request" Could Be a Harvest that Has Made It Easier to Compare Managers with Stock Valuations

I would like to discuss the issues on the April 7 Nikkei article entitled "Cost-of-Capital Management, Chapter 2: Participation by All is Key to...

Metrical Inc

New Index Distracts from Prime Market Issues While Providing Long/Short Opportunities for Investors

I would like to discuss the issues on the outline of the document "Outline of the JPX Prime 150 Index, a new index focusing on value creation"...

Metrical Inc

Rather, Listing Criteria for Prime Market Should Be Modified to the Original Concept of the Market

I would like to discuss the issues on the April 5 Nikkei Shimbun article, "Only 20% of Companies Have "Graduated" from the Transitional Measures...

Metrical Inc

To Make the TSE Prime Market in Line with the Original Concept of the Market

I would like to discuss the issues on the April 3 Nikkei Shimbun article, "TSE Reforms: Improvement Requested for P/Bs Below 1x to Put Soul into...

Metrical Inc