Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

The source of the global recovery in 2017 was an upturn in the profit cycle. With monetary and exchange rate policies in the major economies now more stable we expect this to continue in 2018 and beyond. Along with profits,  an appropriate real lending rate is a necessary condition for full economic recovery. Real lending rates play a key signaling role in transforming profits into increased investment spending, the critical stage in the renewed boom. At a later stage in the cycle increased demand for credit may well kick in to take the cycle to its peak (followed by the inevitable bust).There is nothing to stop the profit and investment cycles from driving economic growth for most of Asia in the coming year. We particularly like China, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.

The source of the global recovery in 2017 was an upturn in the profit cycle. With monetary and exchange rate policies in the major economies now more stable we expect this to continue in 2018 and beyond. Along with profits,  an appropriate real lending rate is a necessary condition for full economic recovery. Real lending rates play a key signaling role in transforming profits into increased investment spending, the critical stage in the renewed boom. At a later stage in the cycle increased demand for credit may well kick in to take the cycle to its peak (followed by the inevitable bust).There is nothing to stop the profit and investment cycles from driving economic growth for most of Asia in the coming year. We particularly like China, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical.  Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs along with the US, assuming the action in the Dollar/Yen does not hinder that bullish influence.  However, of the 11 indicators we follow which give directional signals, only one (13-week ADX) is signalling that a new high is likely.  The others all contain divergence warnings to some degree.

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical.  Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs along with the US, assuming the action in the Dollar/Yen does not hinder that bullish influence.  However, of the 11 indicators we follow which give directional signals, only one (13-week ADX) is signalling that a new high is likely.  The others all contain divergence warnings to some degree.

Topix: Why 1,680 Is Critical to the 20-Month Uptrend

With our post-2009 wave counts nearing completion (and acceptably complete in NASDAQ 100), we have been watching nervously to see if the S&amp;P would produce a sharp sell-off along the lines of Q2 2000 or Q3 2007, providing an initial warning that it might have begun top-building.  The recent decline certainly qualifies.

With our post-2009 wave counts nearing completion (and acceptably complete in NASDAQ 100), we have been watching nervously to see if the S&amp;P would produce a sharp sell-off along the lines of Q2 2000 or Q3 2007, providing an initial warning that it might have begun top-building.  The recent decline certainly qualifies. 

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest policy shift in three decades? US dollar weakness has always gone hand-in-hand with a surging Yen, but in the latest USD sell-off the Yen has been largely unmoved and, as the chart of a peer-weighted Yen basket (USD, Yuan, Sing$ and Won) suggests, over the past year the Yen has effectively flat-lined. This brief note summarises a series of recently…

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

We follow our warning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mr-trump-s-black-elephant" target="_blank">Mr Trump’s Black Elephant </a>- which argues that the last thing the US stock market needs is a revival in real economic activity (see the last few days' market action) - with positive news. Regardless of events in US markets, we are confident of yet another year of Asian equity outperformance.While the US economy may hold the ‘black swan’ key to US stock market performance there are a couple of non-consensus events in Asia this year that we think are highly likely.

We follow our warning in Mr Trump’s Black Elephant - which argues that the last thing the US stock market needs is a revival in real economic activity (see the last few days' market action) - with positive news. Regardless of events in US markets, we are confident of yet another year of Asian equity outperformance.While the US economy may hold the ‘black swan’ key to US stock market performance there are a couple of non-consensus events in Asia this year that we think are highly likely.

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Real Lending Rates and the Investment Cycle

The source of the global recovery in 2017 was an upturn in the profit cycle. With monetary and exchange rate policies in the major economies now...

Dr. Jim Walker

Topix: Why 1,680 Is Critical to the 20-Month Uptrend

For Elliott wave reasons, the area around Topix 1,680 has become critical. Whilst that broadly holds, the odds favour a final fun to new highs...

Peter Beuttell

S&P 500: The First Phase of Top-Building

With our post-2009 wave counts nearing completion (and acceptably complete in NASDAQ 100), we have been watching nervously to see if the S&P...

Peter Beuttell

Is This Asia’s Biggest Policy Shift in Three-Decades?

‘The dog that didn’t bark’, the famous Sherlock Holmes clue, may help us understand the Yen and evaluate whether we are seeing Asia’s biggest...

Michael J. Howell

Asia's Grey Swans

We follow our warning in Mr Trump’s Black Elephant - which argues that the last thing the US stock market needs is a revival in real economic...

Dr. Jim Walker