Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The rapid growth of remote work and home entertainment caused by COVID-19, 5G mobile telecom, the industrial internet of things and vehicle electrification have pushed the semiconductor industry close to full capacity.</p><ul>
<li>In recent weeks, Volkswagen, Bosch, Continental, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Subaru, VW, Ford and Fiat Chrysler have announced production cuts or shipment delays due to a shortage of semiconductors. </li>
<li>In December, Nvidia and AMD reported shortages of GDDR6 memory.</li>
<li>Samsung may invest more than $30 billion in its semiconductor business this year. On January 9, Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported that <em>Chipmaking equipment manufacturers say the company has provided order plans for 2021 that point to a further 20% to 30% increase in spending.</em>
</li>
</ul><p>This should support semiconductor pricing, cash flow and capital spending, possibly lifting sales of semiconductor equipment above SEMI's 4.4% growth forecast for 2021. It should also make concerns over December quarter results less relevant as market attention shifts to the year ahead.</p><p>Investors in Tokyo Electron (TEL) and other makers of semiconductor production, assembly and test equipment should benefit, even if the shares appear to be overbought.</p><p>TEL's 1H results were well ahead of guidance and full-year FY Mar-21 guidance was raised. But the new guidance implies a weaker 2H. In our estimation, it too is likely to prove conservative. </p>

The rapid growth of remote work and home entertainment caused by COVID-19, 5G mobile telecom, the industrial internet of things and vehicle electrification have pushed the semiconductor industry close to full capacity.
In recent weeks, Volkswagen, Bosch, Continental, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Subaru, VW, Ford and Fiat Chrysler have announced production cuts or shipment delays due to a shortage of semiconductors. 
In December, Nvidia and AMD reported shortages of GDDR6 memory.
Samsung may invest more than $30 billion in its semiconductor business this year. On January 9, Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported that Chipmaking equipment manufacturers say the company has provided order plans for 2021 that point to a further 20% to 30% increase in spending.

This should support semiconductor pricing, cash flow and capital spending, possibly lifting sales of semiconductor equipment above SEMI's 4.4% growth forecast for 2021. It should also make concerns over December quarter results less relevant as market attention shifts to the year ahead.Investors in Tokyo Electron (TEL) and other makers of semiconductor production, assembly and test equipment should benefit, even if the shares appear to be overbought.TEL's 1H results were well ahead of guidance and full-year FY Mar-21 guidance was raised. But the new guidance implies a weaker 2H. In our estimation, it too is likely to prove conservative. 

Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Semiconductor Shortage Points to Stronger Year Ahead

<p>Advantest enters the new year with its share price back to its pre-Lehman Shock high, but lagging Tokyo Electron and other high-flying Japanese semiconductor production equipment (SPE) stocks.</p><p>But orders, sales and profits turned up in 2Q of FY Mar-21 and the medium-to-long-term outlook for both memory and system-on-chip (SoC) test requirements is favorable.</p><p>5G is likely to add about 10% to SoC test demand over the next 2-3 years. Smart-phone complexity, high-performance computing, data traffic, memory and storage requirements, and industrial applications are the underlying drivers of test system demand.</p><div><p>Sales should rise by about 25% and operating profit by nearly 40% in the two and a half years to Mar-23, in our estimation, with operating and net profits regaining and then exceeding the peaks recorded in FY Mar-19 despite substantial investments in new technology.</p></div><p>Valuations have risen, but not radically so, and Japan Analytics calculations indicate that the shares are nowhere near being oversold. SPE comparables suggest potential upside of 30% to ¥10,000-plus. </p><p>The primary threats to Advantest's prospects are macro-economic and political, in our opinion. Risk to the important China market should decline with the departure of Donald Trump. </p><div><div><div><div></div></div></div></div><div><div></div></div>

Advantest enters the new year with its share price back to its pre-Lehman Shock high, but lagging Tokyo Electron and other high-flying Japanese semiconductor production equipment (SPE) stocks.But orders, sales and profits turned up in 2Q of FY Mar-21 and the medium-to-long-term outlook for both memory and system-on-chip (SoC) test requirements is favorable.5G is likely to add about 10% to SoC test demand over the next 2-3 years. Smart-phone complexity, high-performance computing, data traffic, memory and storage requirements, and industrial applications are the underlying drivers of test system demand.Sales should rise by about 25% and operating profit by nearly 40% in the two and a half years to Mar-23, in our estimation, with operating and net profits regaining and then exceeding the peaks recorded in FY Mar-19 despite substantial investments in new technology.Valuations have risen, but not radically so, and Japan Analytics calculations indicate that the shares are nowhere near being oversold. SPE comparables suggest potential upside of 30% to ¥10,000-plus. The primary threats to Advantest's prospects are macro-economic and political, in our opinion. Risk to the important China market should decline with the departure of Donald Trump. 

Advantest (6857 JP): 5G Keeps the Ball Rolling

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>There has been talks that Sammy capital expenditure ("capex) will be lower vs. their original guide due to an equipment manufacturers conservative guidance due to uncertainty in 2H21.   Is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> cutting up to 20% of their original capital expenditure guidance or is there something else to this? The latter in my view. </p>

There has been talks that Sammy capital expenditure ("capex) will be lower vs. their original guide due to an equipment manufacturers conservative guidance due to uncertainty in 2H21.   Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) cutting up to 20% of their original capital expenditure guidance or is there something else to this? The latter in my view. 

Is Samsung Electronics Cutting 2021 Capex with Its New Leadership Change?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>. Shorts decreased in most sectors led by Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Real Estate, Energy and Utilities.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ana-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5308:1" rel="noopener">Ana Holdings (9202 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK Corp (6762 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Industrials, Health Care, Financials and Consumer Discretionary names.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, there was large short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6450:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compeq-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9306:1" rel="noopener">Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) while there was short covering on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK), Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) and HSBC Holdings (5 HK). Shorts decreased in most sectors led by Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Real Estate, Energy and Utilities.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Ana Holdings (9202 JP), Suzuki Motor (7269 JP), Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) while shorts decreased on Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Tokyo Electron (8035 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP) and TDK Corp (6762 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Industrials, Health Care, Financials and Consumer Discretionary names.In Korea, there was large short covering on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and SK Hynix (000660 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT), United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT) and Compeq Manufacturing (2313 TT) while shorts were covered on TSMC (2330 TT), Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), Unimicron Technology (3037 TT) and Nanya Technology (2408 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: BIG Covering in HK & Korea

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.</p>

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)