Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost</li>
<li>Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter</li>
<li>The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024</li>
</ul>


The steep part of the chip collapse has run its course, and prices are now following cost
Revenues will rise once demand growth fully offsets price decreases, probably in the fourth quarter
The market will regain profitability only after a new shortage develops, which may be the middle of 2024


Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guidance for 1H of FY Mar-24 should be easy to beat. The sharp rebound that management is forecasting for 2H is open to question. </li>
<li>TSMC and Micron plan long-term expansion in Japan and Rapidus will be a new customer. But exports to China - the company's largest market - will be restricted.</li>
<li>The share price has spiked, but uncertainty is high, visibility is low and valuations are not compelling.Management's MAGIC medium-term targets look like ... magic. </li>
</ul>


Guidance for 1H of FY Mar-24 should be easy to beat. The sharp rebound that management is forecasting for 2H is open to question. 
TSMC and Micron plan long-term expansion in Japan and Rapidus will be a new customer. But exports to China - the company's largest market - will be restricted.
The share price has spiked, but uncertainty is high, visibility is low and valuations are not compelling.Management's MAGIC medium-term targets look like ... magic. 


Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): Dubious Guidance

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. </li>
<li>JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire</li>
<li>Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments</li>
</ul>


Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. 
JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire
Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments


Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

<ul>
<li>Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ</li>
<li>Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.</li>
<li>Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign</li>
</ul>


Q1’23 revenues of $6.63 billion, up 6 % YoY, down 2% QoQ
Q2'23 revenues of $6.15 billion at the midpoint, down 7.2% QoQ.
Tool push outs and cancellations are spreading to leading logic customers. That's not a good sign


Applied Materials ICAPS Grows Strongly But Leading Logic Ruins The Party

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. 
NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number


Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Where Are We in the Semiconductor Cycle?

Will the semiconductor market turn around? Revenues are likely to regain modest growth in the fourth quarter, but profits shouldn't return until...

Jim Handy