Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength </li></ul><ul><li>Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)</li></ul><ul><li>ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ</li></ul>

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

Macroeconomics

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the opportunities currently available from strategic currency allocations.  

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures.  But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the BoJ, and suggested that it was unlikely to target further declines in cash rates.  Its policies are more focused on boosting domestic asset prices and domestic bank lending and place less emphasis on a weaker exchange rate policy.  Since the ECB set its course to further ease policy at its 22-October 2015 policy meeting, the market has presumed that it favored lower interest rates.  It has now signaled it has reached bottom on this path, just as the BoJ has diverted its attention to negative interest rates.  As such, we see a case for a recovery in EUR/JPY, potentially retracing the significant fall since October last year.

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro...

Kay Van-Petersen

Portfolio Return Opportunity from Strategic Currency Allocations?

Strategic Portfolio returns available from strategic currency allocations. We review ClearMacro's expected returns methodology and the...

ClearMacro

AmpGFX - ECB and BoJ Policy Easing Paths Diverge

The ECB delivered a comprehensive set of further policy easing measures. But it eschewed the concept of a tiered rate policy, in contrast to the...

Greg Gibbs

Crowdfunding as an Investment Theme

Banking profits are under attack from FinTechOver the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their...

CM Research

Asian Banks – Risks Remain Plentiful

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking...

Daniel Tabbush

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