Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome.   Although expectations of easing are building (including, according to Nikkei reports, within the BOJ), we see reasons why the BOJ may choose to adopt more modest easing measures than markets expect.Earlier this week, markets were not greatly surprised by the Fed’s upbeat tone on 27 July, but as the FOMC left rates on hold, judging that  “[n<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160727a.htm" target="_blank">]ear-term risks to the economic outlook</a>…

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome.   Although expectations of easing are building (including, according to Nikkei reports, within the BOJ), we see reasons why the BOJ may choose to adopt more modest easing measures than markets expect.Earlier this week, markets were not greatly surprised by the Fed’s upbeat tone on 27 July, but as the FOMC left rates on hold, judging that  “[n]ear-term risks to the economic outlook…

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

<ul><li>At a time of growing unease about political and economic risks in major economies, and continued uncertainty over the strength of the US recovery and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, investors have flocked into assets in Asian EMs.</li><li>The question is whether this perception of the relative safety of Asian emerging markets will remain now that valuations in Asian markets have expanded so much. We think a moderation of such capital inflows is forthcoming.</li></ul>

At a time of growing unease about political and economic risks in major economies, and continued uncertainty over the strength of the US recovery and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, investors have flocked into assets in Asian EMs.The question is whether this perception of the relative safety of Asian emerging markets will remain now that valuations in Asian markets have expanded so much. We think a moderation of such capital inflows is forthcoming.

The combined monetary policy outlook suggests that Japanese megabanks’ window of US middle market acquisitions is limited, even despite the current “perfect storm” of conditions in the respective sectors.

The combined monetary policy outlook suggests that Japanese megabanks’ window of US middle market acquisitions is limited, even despite the current “perfect storm” of conditions in the respective sectors.

Fed, BOJ Could Rain on the Megabank Middle Market Acquisition Parade

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/010/306/original/Market-VIX-and-macroeconomic-volatility-GDPVol-CPIVol-VIX_chartbuilder.png?1468568433" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="10306"><figcaption class="figcaption">The Market and Macro Volatility (Source: FRED)</figcaption></figure> There are good surprises, and then there are the other kind, and the market of late has delivered quite a few of the latter. Fortunately, as we pointed out in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macro-chart-focus-brexit-and-the-yen" target="_blank">post-Brexit review</a>  the “chaos premium” was quick to subside as markets realized that an exit from Europe is not so rapidly orchestrated.  We also pointed out however that the circumstances underlying the event may be one contributor to a longer-term market risk premium to be imposed upon…

 The Market and Macro Volatility (Source: FRED) There are good surprises, and then there are the other kind, and the market of late has delivered quite a few of the latter.   Fortunately, as we pointed out in our post-Brexit review  the “chaos premium” was quick to subside as markets realized that an exit from Europe is not so rapidly orchestrated.  We also pointed out however that the circumstances underlying the event may be one contributor to a longer-term market risk premium to be imposed upon…

Macro Chart Focus: Surprises and Uncertainty Premia

In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan, otherwise not known for exciting electoral outcomes, of late. Indeed, we must go back to 2003 to cite an example of where dollar-yen moved more than 1% in either direction in the wake of a Japanese election (moreover, in 2003 this was a Lower House election, generally of greater impact upon Japanese legislation).  The Nikkei 225 has tended to be…

In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan, otherwise not known for exciting electoral outcomes, of late.   Indeed, we must go back to 2003 to cite an example of where dollar-yen moved more than 1% in either direction in the wake of a Japanese election (moreover, in 2003 this was a Lower House election, generally of greater impact upon Japanese legislation).  The Nikkei 225 has tended to be…

Japanese Elections: "Abenomics" Versus a Move to the Right

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

BOJ: The 80 Trillion Yen Question

The Bank of Japan July policy meeting ends tomorrow (Friday 29 July), and markets remain divided as to its outcome. Although expectations of...

Naomi Fink

Will Capital Still Flow into Asian EMs?

At a time of growing unease about political and economic risks in major economies, and continued uncertainty over the strength of the US recovery...

Manu Bhaskaran

Fed, BOJ Could Rain on the Megabank Middle Market Acquisition Parade

The combined monetary policy outlook suggests that Japanese megabanks’ window of US middle market acquisitions is limited, even despite the current...

Naomi Fink

Macro Chart Focus: Surprises and Uncertainty Premia

There are good surprises, and then there are the other kind, and the market of late has delivered quite a few of the latter. Fortunately, as we...

Naomi Fink

Japanese Elections: "Abenomics" Versus a Move to the Right

In the shadow of the EU referendum, rising support for conservative political factions among disaffected voters seems to have rubbed off on Japan,...

Naomi Fink

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