'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 13th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/386/original/image_36527959121618346539491.png?1618346540" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200386"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a> cinemas has yet to bottom out but is still in profit. 'New wave' software companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28112:1" rel="noopener">Sansan (4443 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> are growing into their extreme valuations, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona's</a> under-appreciated margin transformation continues. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/403/original/image_63727914331618348873715.png?1618348877" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/404/original/image_12260447541618348911606.png?1618348912" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200404"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/405/original/image_35233699051618348944141.png?1618348944" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200405"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/406/original/image_14670185761618348969100.png?1618348969" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200406"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 13th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/407/original/image_58511005871618349036093.png?1618349036" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200407"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Two-thirds of annual forecasts/revisions were positive, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> the leading largest-cap optimists. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/santen-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8602:1" rel="noopener">Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP)</a> revised down following a delay in the approval of glaucoma implant DE-128.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/408/original/image_63605452481618349380112.png?1618349381" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200408"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/409/original/image_46822562891618349413296.png?1618349413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200409"></figure>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 13th APRIL •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to bottom out but is still in profit. 'New wave' software companies Sansan (4443 JP) and Money Forward (3994 JP) are growing into their extreme valuations, while Pasona's under-appreciated margin transformation continues. • LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 13th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Two-thirds of annual forecasts/revisions were positive, with Toho (9602 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) the leading largest-cap optimists. Santen Pharmaceutical (4536 JP) revised down following a delay in the approval of glaucoma implant DE-128.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi (8273 JP) </a>and movie house <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7806:1" rel="noopener">Toho (9602 JP)</a>. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/091/original/2020-10-14_06-31-16.png?1602624693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165091"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/090/original/2020-10-14_06-29-48.png?1602624602" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165090"></figure><p></p></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>49 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 55% Positive / 8% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>+1.6 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.6% Quarter YoY / -1.8% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 24%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>25 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 50% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.1 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer Izumi (8273 JP) and movie house Toho (9602 JP). 

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS49 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 55% Positive / 8% Neutral / 37% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +1.6 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.6% Quarter YoY / -1.8% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 24%
25 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 50% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.1 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/854/original/2020-09-09_04-55-21.png?1599594979" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157854"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stream-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10256:1" rel="noopener">Stream (3071 JP)</a></strong>- Micro-cap internet mail-order platform Stream produced the best of Tuesday's results. Quarterly sales rose by 36% year-on-year, taking quarterly margins to a record-high 3.4% and making the 180-day old full-year forecasts obsolete. If sustained for the second half, EV/OP falls to an attractive 4.8 times. Given the low liquidity, the shares should enjoy a nice 'pop'.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/855/original/2020-09-09_05-01-17.png?1599595294" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157855"></figure><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p><strong>NET POSITIVE</strong> - Mostly due to the mix of businesses, Tuesday's results were net-positive and, for the first time in many months, none of the companies reporting saw a quarterly loss. Of the two forecasts, the net score was also positive. </p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> 1.8 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue</strong>: 7.7% Quarter YoY / 3.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.2 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</li>
</ul></div><div>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div>

Source for all charts: Japan AnalyticsStream (3071 JP)- Micro-cap internet mail-order platform Stream produced the best of Tuesday's results. Quarterly sales rose by 36% year-on-year, taking quarterly margins to a record-high 3.4% and making the 180-day old full-year forecasts obsolete. If sustained for the second half, EV/OP falls to an attractive 4.8 times. Given the low liquidity, the shares should enjoy a nice 'pop'.   

DAILY STATS
NET POSITIVE - Mostly due to the mix of businesses, Tuesday's results were net-positive and, for the first time in many months, none of the companies reporting saw a quarterly loss. Of the two forecasts, the net score was also positive. 10 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 50% Positive / 10% Neutral / 40% Negative

Average Results Score Change: 1.8 points

Average % Change in Revenue: 7.7% Quarter YoY / 3.2% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.2 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%





🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/689/original/2020-08-20_08-32-43.png?1597879991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153689"></figure><div class="content-caption">All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.</div><p><strong>BRUTAL</strong> - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/694/original/2020-08-20_09-02-34.png?1597881766" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153694"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/695/original/2020-08-20_09-03-07.png?1597881801" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153695"></figure><p><strong>TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS</strong> - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/727/original/2020-08-20_10-57-21.png?1597888653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153727"></figure><p><strong>DAMN THE TORPEDOES</strong> - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.</p></div>

All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.DAMN THE TORPEDOES - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/170/original/2020-07-15_06-47-59.png?1594763291" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146170"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/171/original/2020-07-15_06-49-16.png?1594763379" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/izumi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13173:1" rel="noopener">Izumi (8273 JP)</a></strong>- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial full-year forecast suggests a bottoming out of the margin deterioration of the last seven quarters. The market-implied growth rate is now negative, and with the Relative Price Score more than half that of the 2017 peak, the shares now offer good value if the margin recovery is to continue. </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>74 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 23 Positive / 10 Neutral / 41 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.9% Quarter YoY / -2.1% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-2.3ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 35%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 16 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -3.1</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial full-year forecast suggests a bottoming out of the margin deterioration of the last seven quarters. The market-implied growth rate is now negative, and with the Relative Price Score more than half that of the 2017 peak, the shares now offer good value if the margin recovery is to continue. 
DAILY STATS
74 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 23 Positive / 10 Neutral / 41 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.9% Quarter YoY / -2.1% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 35%
 33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 16 Positive / 4 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 3 Positive / 1 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.1


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Japan

TOHO CO., LTD. produces and distributes motion pictures for cinema, television, and video.  The Company also sells character merchandise based on their media productions, distributes foreign films, operates musical theaters, and produces musical shows. In addition, Toho manages movie theaters in urban areas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Toho Co Ltd (9602 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

RESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer Izumi (8273 JP) and movie house Toho (9602 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial...

Campbell Gunn

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52-week Range

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

RESULTS - Only 38% of Tuesdays 69 results announcements scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Toho (9602 JP) cinemas has yet to...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is general retailer Izumi (8273 JP) and movie house Toho (9602 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

Source for all charts: Japan Analytics

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

Izumi (8273 JP)- General merchandise retailer Izumi saw an unchanged Results Score and slightly improved Forecast/Revision Score as their initial...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/13 - Pasona (Grata) & J Front Retailing

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/13 - Toho, Izumi, J Front Retailing, Koshidaka

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos