Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As we have long predicted LVMH is making a cheap and sneaky offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tod-s-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21231:1" rel="noopener">Tod's SpA (TOD IM).</a>
</li>
<li>LVMH is doing it via wholly controlled L Catterton to confuse minority holders</li>
<li>L Catterton = LVMH,  and the only reason for the current proposal is to be able to pay Della Valle a much higher price in a private transaction later on.</li>
</ul>


As we have long predicted LVMH is making a cheap and sneaky offer for Tod's SpA (TOD IM).

LVMH is doing it via wholly controlled L Catterton to confuse minority holders
L Catterton = LVMH,  and the only reason for the current proposal is to be able to pay Della Valle a much higher price in a private transaction later on.


Tod's: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

<ul>
<li>Tod's founder Diego Della Valle is undoubtedly frustrated his bid to privatize Tod's at 40 EUR failed in 4Q22</li>
<li>It was the ideal time to privatize in order to maximize value for his family before selling to LVMH, the most logical buyer since 2017</li>
<li>Our conviction that Tod's ends up in the LVMH stable of brands is stronger than ever, an exit offer of 60 EUR per share would be a reasonable assumption</li>
</ul>


Tod's founder Diego Della Valle is undoubtedly frustrated his bid to privatize Tod's at 40 EUR failed in 4Q22
It was the ideal time to privatize in order to maximize value for his family before selling to LVMH, the most logical buyer since 2017
Our conviction that Tod's ends up in the LVMH stable of brands is stronger than ever, an exit offer of 60 EUR per share would be a reasonable assumption


Tod's: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid

<ul>
<li>The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plover-bay-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24191:1" rel="noopener">Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK)</a> which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> down over 60%.</li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tod-s-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21231:1" rel="noopener">Tod's SpA (TOD IM)</a> at €43/share to take it private.</li>
<li>In spite of the 31% premium to the 3-month VWAP, and the loss of brand equity by Tod's the offer seems cheap on a multiples basis, considering turnaround potential.</li>
<li>Considering a 95% squeeze-out threshold, 80.4% of the float must tender, which is high. A sweetening may be needed, although the offeror threatens with a merger with itself to delist.</li>
</ul>


The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod's SpA (TOD IM) at €43/share to take it private.
In spite of the 31% premium to the 3-month VWAP, and the loss of brand equity by Tod's the offer seems cheap on a multiples basis, considering turnaround potential.
Considering a 95% squeeze-out threshold, 80.4% of the float must tender, which is high. A sweetening may be needed, although the offeror threatens with a merger with itself to delist.


Italy

Tod's S.p.A. manufactures and retails men's, women's, and sports shoes.  The Company's signature shoe is a loafer with rubber spikes on the sole and heel. Brand names include Tod's, Hogan, and Fay.  The Company operates owned and franchised stores in Europe, the United States, Asia, and the Middle East.

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Tod's SpA (TOD IM)

Tod's: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022

Tod's has received another privatization offer at 43 EUR per share. This is the second privatization attempt in two years. The offer is highly...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Tod's: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid

Diego Della Valle failed to privatize Tod's in 4Q22. His failed bid now opens the way for LVMH to finally take control of the brand and give it the...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Second Time Around

The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod's at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tod's: Another Cheap Shot at Privatization After Failed Attempt in 2022

Tod's has received another privatization offer at 43 EUR per share. This is the second privatization attempt in two years. The offer is highly...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Tod's: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid

Diego Della Valle failed to privatize Tod's in 4Q22. His failed bid now opens the way for LVMH to finally take control of the brand and give it the...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

​2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Second Time Around

The Della Valles and LVMH-backed L Catterton announced an agreement to launch a voluntary tender offer to buy 36% of Italian luxury group Tod's at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...