Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) / Equity Capital Markets

In this insight, we analyze <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)</a> 's IPO by valuing its two distinctly different businesses - Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion - separately, based on two sets of peer valuation. We also share our GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa)</a> based on a bottom-up analysis using key operational metrics of Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion retail. We also ran a rationality check on our projections by comparing them with top-down analysis. See detailed tables in the report below.A key challenge that investors face in valuing Nykaa is the lack of listed comparable peers. We note that Nykaa's established BPC business is comparable to any high growth-high margin branded consumer, retail play in India given a similar operating structure. However, its emerging fashion retail is run as a marketplace with much stronger growth potential but at lower margins. Hence online consumer marketplace operators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-media-pvt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> could be a better fit for its peer comparison.For background read on the company's key strengths, concerns, and competitive landscape, please refer to our earlier insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fsn-ecommerce-nykaa-ipo-glowing-beauty-growing-fashion-a-primer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55547" rel="noopener">FSN ECommerce (Nykaa) IPO: Glowing Beauty, Growing Fashion. A Primer.</a>

In this insight, we analyze FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) 's IPO by valuing its two distinctly different businesses - Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion - separately, based on two sets of peer valuation. We also share our GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) projections for FSN E-Commerce Ventures (Nykaa) based on a bottom-up analysis using key operational metrics of Beauty &amp; Personal care (BPC) and Fashion retail. We also ran a rationality check on our projections by comparing them with top-down analysis. See detailed tables in the report below.A key challenge that investors face in valuing Nykaa is the lack of listed comparable peers. We note that Nykaa's established BPC business is comparable to any high growth-high margin branded consumer, retail play in India given a similar operating structure. However, its emerging fashion retail is run as a marketplace with much stronger growth potential but at lower margins. Hence online consumer marketplace operators like Zomato (ZOMATO IN) could be a better fit for its peer comparison.For background read on the company's key strengths, concerns, and competitive landscape, please refer to our earlier insight FSN ECommerce (Nykaa) IPO: Glowing Beauty, Growing Fashion. A Primer.

FSN Ecommerce IPO Valuation: Nykaa Can Be Appetizing if You Liked Zomato

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Building on our earlier insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-channel-insight-a-tier-2-city-s-battle-with-the-second-wave-welcome-to-the-jungle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50005" rel="noopener">India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle</a> on India's fight with the second wave, in this insight, we present our takeaways from interactions and experiences of 10 COVID positive patients (including self) with an objective to understand and estimate the impact on discretionary spending, the possibility of job losses and stress if any on small and medium scale businesses.

Building on our earlier insight India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle on India's fight with the second wave, in this insight, we present our takeaways from interactions and experiences of 10 COVID positive patients (including self) with an objective to understand and estimate the impact on discretionary spending, the possibility of job losses and stress if any on small and medium scale businesses.  

India Channel Insight | Living in the Second Wave | The Battle Is On

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle.

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle. 

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kalyan Jewellers / Equity Capital Markets

Kalyan Jewellers raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993 and is backed by Warburg Pincus.We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalyan-jewellers-pre-ipo-strategy-missteps-led-to-earnings-flatlining" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers Pre-IPO - Strategy missteps led to earnings flatlining </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalyan-jewellers-ipo-no-glitter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers IPO - No Glitter</a>.In this note, we'll talk about deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.

Kalyan Jewellers raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993 and is backed by Warburg Pincus.We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, Kalyan Jewellers Pre-IPO - Strategy missteps led to earnings flatlining and Kalyan Jewellers IPO - No Glitter.In this note, we'll talk about deal updates and provide a table with implied valuations at different share price levels.

Kalyan Jewellers IPO Trading - Subdued Demand

India

Titan Co. Ltd. manufactures and retails jewelry and watches. The Company also produces perfume for men and women.

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Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN)

FSN Ecommerce IPO Valuation: Nykaa Can Be Appetizing if You Liked Zomato

Segment-wise valuation analysis based on separate peer set to better reflect the distinct operating structures and margin/growth profiles of...

Devi Subhakesan

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

India Channel Insight | Living in the Second Wave | The Battle Is On

in this insight, we present our takeaways from interactions and experiences of 10 COVID positive patients with an objective to understand and...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharastra, the situation is no better in the rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out...

Pranav Bhavsar

Kalyan Jewellers IPO Trading - Subdued Demand

Kalyan Jewellers raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. In this note, we'll talk about deal updates.

Sumeet Singh

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