Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market cap of Vision Fund portfolio company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-we-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28061:1" rel="noopener">The We Company (WeWork) (WE US)</a> has fallen decisively below that of rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iwg-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28219:1" rel="noopener">IWG PLC (IWG LN)</a> for the first time</li>
<li>Still despite WeWork's constant drag on portfolio returns including c. $500mn this quarter, Vision Fund remains on track to end the quarter in the black (+$2bn QTD)</li>
<li>The holding company discount appears to have stabilized at 35% but this seems a bit steep with markets volatile again and a move to 40% would not surprise</li>
</ul>


The market cap of Vision Fund portfolio company The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) has fallen decisively below that of rival IWG PLC (IWG LN) for the first time
Still despite WeWork's constant drag on portfolio returns including c. $500mn this quarter, Vision Fund remains on track to end the quarter in the black (+$2bn QTD)
The holding company discount appears to have stabilized at 35% but this seems a bit steep with markets volatile again and a move to 40% would not surprise


Softbank Group - Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation

<ul>
<li>Softbank Group’s share price has been supported by the share buyback programme since late September, but 2Q FY2022 results are likely act as a negative catalyst for Softbank shares</li>
<li>Alibaba and its core listed holdings in the Vision Funds have seen market values go lower in recent months; see the diverging market price chart trends in this report</li>
<li>In addition, valuations among the unlisted holdings are also under pressure into October, so 2Q results may not capture the full extent of the down rounds</li>
</ul>


Softbank Group’s share price has been supported by the share buyback programme since late September, but 2Q FY2022 results are likely act as a negative catalyst for Softbank shares
Alibaba and its core listed holdings in the Vision Funds have seen market values go lower in recent months; see the diverging market price chart trends in this report
In addition, valuations among the unlisted holdings are also under pressure into October, so 2Q results may not capture the full extent of the down rounds


Softbank Group (9984 JP) – Defying Gravity into 4Q 2022

<ul>
<li>Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra will step down from Vision Fund 2 to take a new gig managing money for Midde Eastern partners. His VF1 role is unchanged for now</li>
<li>Structurally, this does not change very much as Son-san has always been the decision maker on investments and we never considered Misra as a candidate for succession</li>
<li>After surviving $47bn in public equity losses over the last year, it surprisingly looks like Misra's departure is voluntary</li>
</ul>


Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra will step down from Vision Fund 2 to take a new gig managing money for Midde Eastern partners. His VF1 role is unchanged for now
Structurally, this does not change very much as Son-san has always been the decision maker on investments and we never considered Misra as a candidate for succession
After surviving $47bn in public equity losses over the last year, it surprisingly looks like Misra's departure is voluntary


<ul>
<li>Didi shares jumped 24% on reports regulatory relief was at hand. That is good news for Softbank although the halo effect boosting Alibaba had more of a valuation impact</li>
<li>Less noticed but also relevant as a potential outcome is the de-listing of Zhangmen Education which fell 50% Monday and is down 97% for VF in total</li>
<li>Softbank shares trade at a 43% discount to fair value and remain range-bound.  Tech market sentiment remains the primary driver and we continue to be cautious</li>
</ul>


Didi shares jumped 24% on reports regulatory relief was at hand. That is good news for Softbank although the halo effect boosting Alibaba had more of a valuation impact
Less noticed but also relevant as a potential outcome is the de-listing of Zhangmen Education which fell 50% Monday and is down 97% for VF in total
Softbank shares trade at a 43% discount to fair value and remain range-bound.  Tech market sentiment remains the primary driver and we continue to be cautious


Softbank Group - Didi Relief and ZME Pain Highlight Multiple Potential Outcomes

United States

Anywhere Real Estate Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company through its subsidiaries, provides real estate, franchising, brokerage, relocation, and title and settlement services. Anywhere Real Estate offers its services worldwide.

Tejon Ranch Co. is a diversified real estate development and agri-business company owning land located in Los Angeles and Kern counties, California. The Company is in the process of developing its land holdings along transportation corridors into master-planned business and residential communities.

Forestar Group Inc. operates as a residential lot development company. The Company acquires entitled real estate and develops it into finished residential lots for sale to homebuilders with a strategic focus on asset turns. Forestar Group serves customers in the United States.

CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company primarily owns  midstream and downstream U.S. energy infrastructure assets subject to long-term triple net participating leases with energy companies. These assets include pipelines, storage tanks, transmission lines and gathering systems.

Trinity Place Holdings, Inc. owns real estate and intellectual property assets from the Syms Corporation Chapter 11. The company's current business plan includes the monetization of 16 commercial real estate properties and the development of 28-42 Trinity Place in Lower Manhattan.

Cushman & Wakefield plc operates as a commercial real estate company. The Company develops commercial properties, as well as provides property leasing, facilities management, tenant representation, and valuation services. Cushman & Wakefield serves clients worldwide.

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. operates as a self-advised real estate investment trust focusing on the lodging industry. The Company owns several hotel properties in primary, secondary, and resort markets throughout the United States.

Clipper Realty Inc. operates as a real estate investment company. The Company acquires, owns, manages, operates, and repositions multi-family residential and commercial properties in the New York metropolitan area.

Office Properties Income Trust operates as a real estate investment trust. The Company focuses on ownership and leasing of office properties. Office Properties Income Trust serves customers in the United States.

The Howard Hughes Corporation develops real estate. The Company manages master planned communities, shopping malls, and mixed-use developments throughout the United States.

Luminor Financial Holdings Limited is a property developer engaged in developing integrated residential and commercial properties in the PRC. The Company's projects are integrated residential and commercial properties in Chongqing and other second and third tier cities in the PRC, which are mainly large-scale, mid to high end and multi-phased projects.

Luminor Financial Holdings Limited (STHL SP)

Boill Healthcare Holdings Limited operates non residential building construction. The Company develops and constructs club houses, parking lots, and other projects. Boill Healthcare Holdings also operates property development, health resort development, securities investment, foundation piling subcontracting, and other businesses.

The Agency Group Australia Ltd provides real estate services. The Company buys, sells, and rents commercial and residential real estate spaces, as well as social media campaigns and market research services. Agency Group serves customers worldwide.

GPS Alliance Holdings Limited is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in real estate, property development and interior design.

Zodiac Ventures Ltd. develops real estate and offers construction services.

Grand Field Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.

Eminence Enterprise Limited provides real estates services. The Company engages in property investment and development, as well as invests in listed securities and money lending business. Eminence Enterprise serves investors in in Hong Kong.

International Equities Corporation Limited is a property developer and operates a hotel in Perth, Western Australia.

Yincheng International Holding Co., Ltd. operates as a property service provider. The Company offers development and sale of residential and commercial properties, leasing of investment properties, and other real estate services. Yincheng International Holding serves clients in China.

KC Property Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries develop land and real estate in Thailand. The Company develops commercial buildings, apartment buildings, condominiums, single houses, townhouses, cluster houses, and garden resorts. The Company's projects include Ban Klang Buri, Modern Home  Place, and Modern Home Garden Village.

WeWork Inc. provides co-working spaces for individuals and entrepreneurs. The Company offers private offices, office suites, headquarters, and custom build out options to fit a variety of office needs, as well as desk spaces and conference rooms. WeWork serves customers worldwide.

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WeWork (WEWKQ US)

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

Softbank Group - Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation

WeWork’s market cap has fallen decisively below that of rival IWG for the first time as concerns on operating losses and free cash flow rise. It’s...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group (9984 JP) – Defying Gravity into 4Q 2022

Softbank's share price has defied gravity of late, diverging from the trends of its listed holdings but we see clear hurdles going forward from the...

Victor Galliano

Softbank Group - Business as Usual

Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra is departing to run Middle Eastern money. Operationally, not much changes as Son-san has always been the Softbank...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - Didi Relief and ZME Pain Highlight Multiple Potential Outcomes

Good news on Didi and recent gains for Coupang and Goto highlight the potential for Vision Fund companies to re-rate although the delisting of...

Kirk Boodry

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