Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The founder and former chairman and CEO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a> passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.</li>
<li>NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. </li>
<li>The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.</li>
</ul>


The founder and former chairman and CEO of Nexon (3659 JP) passed away according to both Nexon and his holding company NXC. Both announced it late afternoon 1 March.
NXC - the near-parent  (47+% stake) of Nexon tried to sell Nexon/NXC in H1 2019 to no avail. Since then, profits have rebounded somewhat, and investments have multiplied. 
The estate may wish to sell Nexon shares, or its entire stake, at some point near-term.


Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul>
<li>Tech titans foresee the obsolescence of AI PC by Computex 2024, sparking anticipation for new technological advancements.</li>
<li>Disney and Warner's collaboration in the streaming market introduces fresh competition, shaking up the industry landscape.</li>
<li>ASML's thriving in the Angstrom Era credits its success to relentless innovation and adaptability within the semiconductor sector.</li>
</ul>


Tech titans foresee the obsolescence of AI PC by Computex 2024, sparking anticipation for new technological advancements.
Disney and Warner's collaboration in the streaming market introduces fresh competition, shaking up the industry landscape.
ASML's thriving in the Angstrom Era credits its success to relentless innovation and adaptability within the semiconductor sector.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>We summarize our gleanings from the conference call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> to better understand growth opportunities and future expansion plans.</li>
<li>The company is expanding in Indonesia to increase its capacity by 30 million USD ( over 830 million USD). (capacity utilization for FY23:83%).</li>
<li>Trading at 4x FY24e PE, with an 11.4% dividend yield and a 15-year average ROE of 20%, this is a stock worth exploring. </li>
</ul>


We summarize our gleanings from the conference call with Dream International (1126 HK) to better understand growth opportunities and future expansion plans.
The company is expanding in Indonesia to increase its capacity by 30 million USD ( over 830 million USD). (capacity utilization for FY23:83%).
Trading at 4x FY24e PE, with an 11.4% dividend yield and a 15-year average ROE of 20%, this is a stock worth exploring. 


Dream International (1126 HK)  Management Concall: 4x PE,11.4% Div Yield,40% of Mkt Cap in Cash

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kayou" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40875:1" rel="noopener">Kayou</a> is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Kayou is a Chinese pan-entertainment product retailer of toys, with trading cards in particular as its core product.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Kayou Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Unexplained 9M23 Slump

United States

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. broadcasts various channels of audio from its satellites. The Company provides its services throughout the continental United States for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius delivers various streams of commercial-free music in every genre, as well as streams of  news, sports, weather, talk, comedy, and public radio.

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. produces live concerts and sells tickets to those events over the Internet. The Company also offers ticketing services for leading arenas, stadiums, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums and theaters.

The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is an organization of advertising agencies and marketing service companies.  The Company operates globally in the sectors of advertising, independent media buying, direct marketing, healthcare communications, interactive consulting services, marketing research, promotions, experiential marketing, public relations, and sports marketing.

Omnicom Group Inc. provides advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The Company's agencies, which operate in major markets around the world, provide a comprehensive range of services including traditional media advertising; customer relationship management ("CRM"); public relations; and specialty communications.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. is a professional sports company that owns and operates sports franchises.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS US)

The New York Times Company operates media businesses.  The Company publishes daily newspapers and operates Internet websites.  The newspapers and websites distribute news and entertainment.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Liberty Broadband Corporation invests in communication companies. The Company has principal assets in TruePosition and Time Warner Cable.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc, is a television broadcasting company focused on the acquisition, development, and operation of television stations in medium using traditional media, e-MEDIA, digital and mobile media platforms. Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc offers its services in the central east part of United States.

Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc (NXST US)

REA Group Limited provides online property listings, web development and internet related technology services to the real estate industry along with providing advertising services to Australian companies.  The Company also offers online real estate search services to the Australian public.

Publicis Groupe SA offers advertising services.  The Company develops advertising campaigns and sells advertising on billboards and urban furniture, in newspapers and magazines, on radio, and in movie theaters.  Publicis offers direct marketing, customer relationship marketing, sales promotion, public relations and human resources services, and operates retail drugstores.

Informa PLC provides business information on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides information in the finance and insurance, maritime transport and trade, law and tax, telecom and media, commodities and energy, and biomedical and pharmaceutical global markets.  Informa provides its information through newspapers, magazines, electronic media, books, and journals.

Pearson plc provides education products and services to institutions, governments and individual learners in over 80 countries. The Company's major revenue markets are North America, 'Core' including the UK, Italy and Australia and 'Growth' including Brazil, China and South Africa. It also owns the Financial Times, 50% of the Economist and 47% of Penguin Random House.

TOHO CO., LTD. produces and distributes motion pictures for cinema, television, and video.  The Company also sells character merchandise based on their media productions, distributes foreign films, operates musical theaters, and produces musical shows. In addition, Toho manages movie theaters in urban areas.

DENTSU INC. mainly provides comprehensive advertising services.  The Company also provides marketing and event planning & promotion services.  Dentsu has associated companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

Compagnie du Cambodge is an investment holding company that invests in companies active in agriculture, industry, real estate and finance.  The Company owns and operates plantations in Malaysia and forests in Cameroon.

JC Decaux SA offers advertising services.  The Company sells advertising on street furniture such as bus shelters, free standing panels, columns, and automatic toilets, billboards, and posters on buses, trains, and subways, and at railroad stations and airports.

CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA produces, sells, brokers and distributes entry tickets for concerts, theater productions, artistic, sporting and similar events. The Company operates an online booking system that allows event promoters to sell their tickets over a variety of distribution channels. CTS also sells tickets directly over the Internet and a call center and offers system support services.

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

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The Walt Disney Co (DIS US)

Nexon - Founder Kim Jung-Ju Passes, Raises Question if Nexon Deal Is Back In Play

Nexon's founder Kim Jung-ju has passed away. This raises the question of the disposition of the 47+% stake belonging to his holding company NXC. If...

Travis Lundy

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-May-2024): AI PC term will be obsolete soon, tech titans predict at pre-Computex event.

Tech titans foresee AI PCs replacing current technology; Disney and Warner's streaming partnership shakes up the market; ASML's innovation drives...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Dream International (1126 HK) Management Concall: 4x PE,11.4% Div Yield,40% of Mkt Cap in Cash

We summarize our gleanings from a concall with the mgmt of Dream International (1126 HK) recently. It trades at mouth watering 3.9x FY23 PE and a...

Sameer Taneja

Kayou Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Unexplained 9M23 Slump

Kayou is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

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