Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 25th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,561.1 million, led by materials, financials, and offset by communication services, utilities, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Luxshare Precision Industry, Longi Green, China Merchants Bank, Wuliangye Yibin, Ping An Insurance, Ping An Bank, East Money Information.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 25th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,561.1 million, led by materials, financials, and offset by communication services, utilities, energy.
We highlight flows for CATL, Luxshare Precision Industry, Longi Green, China Merchants Bank, Wuliangye Yibin, Ping An Insurance, Ping An Bank, East Money Information.


Northbound Flows (May 25th): CATL, Luxshare Precision, Longi Green, CMB, Wuliangye, East Money

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Mar 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week on week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and offset by real estate, information technology, industrials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom, CCCC, China Oilfield.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 143 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 111.9% as of Mar 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 0.3ppt week on week, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, financials and offset by real estate, information technology, industrials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom, CCCC, China Oilfield.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 3rd): Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.</li>
<li>The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.</li>
<li>We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.</li>
</ul>


To build on our earlier work on the insurance space -- and as we search for beta-neutral relative value plays -- we look at PICC Group-H's SOTP valuation.
The group's life and health business has historically traded at a steep implicit discount to China Life-H, perhaps deservedly so. But price dislocations do occur from time to time.
We share our cheat sheet on how we approach these opportunities, which are often good for a quick 10% trade. As usual, we highlight the potential risks as well.


PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

China

The People's Insurance Company (Group) of China Limited, through its subsidiaries, offers a range of property and casualty insurance products. The Company also offers asset management services for a variety of customers throughout China.

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People's Insurance Group of (601319 CH)

Northbound Flows (May 25th): CATL, Luxshare Precision, Longi Green, CMB, Wuliangye, East Money

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, Luxshare Precision, Longi Green, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 3rd): Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China Telecom

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Xinjiang Goldwind, ZTE, China Southern, CRRC, GWM, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

PICC Group / PICC P&C Pair: A Cheat Sheet to Improve Your Batting Average

PICC Group / PICC P&C are an interesting pair that often provides investors with short windows for relative value trades. From the group's SOTP...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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