Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. </p>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Jul 2019

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>China News That Matters</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle</li>
<li>Worried homebuyers – and developers</li>
<li>Forging those new Silk Roads</li>
<li>Copycats no more?</li>
<li>And another thing… Central bank reaches out</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle
Worried homebuyers – and developers
Forging those new Silk Roads
Copycats no more?
And another thing… Central bank reaches out


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 07 Nov 2018

Debt Capital Markets

Thaihot Group Co Ltd A / Debt Capital Markets

<p>Tahoe Group Co Ltd is conducting a roadshow for a Reg S-only USD bond issuance. The proceeds will be used for onshore property development and general corporate purposes. The issuance amount and tenor are to be announced.<br /><br />Established in 1996, the property developer has a focus on mid-range and high-end projects in T1 and T2 cities. We view Tahoe as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, due to its: [1] weak financial profile, with very high leverage; [2] opaque parent entity with inadequate disclosure; [3] poor cash collection; and [4] questionable access to capital. That said, Tahoe is growing quickly, with a well-regarded brand and relatively high-quality products. The company's operations are geographically diversified, with a good mix of residential and commercial projects.<br /><br />We see fair value in the 8%-8.5% range (incorporating a new-issuer premium), and do not recommend that investors participate below this range. That said, the company may be targetting levels as low as 6.5%-7.5%, based on other single B rated credits.<br /></p>

Tahoe Group Co Ltd is conducting a roadshow for a Reg S-only USD bond issuance. The proceeds will be used for onshore property development and general corporate purposes. The issuance amount and tenor are to be announced.  Established in 1996, the property developer has a focus on mid-range and high-end projects in T1 and T2 cities. We view Tahoe as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, due to its: [1] weak financial profile, with very high leverage; [2] opaque parent entity with inadequate disclosure; [3] poor cash collection; and [4] questionable access to capital. That said, Tahoe is growing quickly, with a well-regarded brand and relatively high-quality products. The company's operations are geographically diversified, with a good mix of residential and commercial projects.  We see fair value in the 8%-8.5% range (incorporating a new-issuer premium), and do not recommend that investors participate below this range. That said, the company may be targetting levels as low as 6.5%-7.5%, based on other single B rated credits. 

Tahoe Group - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.2% in January to +11.8% in February, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up from +0.2% to +0.3%.</p><p>Top risers on a 12-month basis now show some of the more significant declines on the month-on-month basis, while there are more cities with house prices rising.</p><p>The biggest…</p>

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.2% in January to +11.8% in February, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up from +0.2% to +0.3%.Top risers on a 12-month basis now show some of the more significant declines on the month-on-month basis, while there are more cities with house prices rising.The biggest…

China Property: What's Going On With House Prices... Based On The Latest NBS Data

China

Langfang Development Co Ltd designs, manufactures, and markets mill  rolls. The Company's products include centrifuged iron rolls, forged steel rolls, grain rolls, and other mill rolls.

Guangzhou Donghua Enterprise Co., Ltd. invests in, owns, and develops real estate properties, including a portfolio of office and residential developments. The Company also sells and leases properties, as well as operates businesses in the residential communities.  Guangzhou Donghua holds interests in companies that provide food and tourism services.

Guangzhou Donghua Enterprise Co, Ltd. (600393 CH)

Yangguang Co., Ltd. develops, leases, manages, and sells residential properties mainly located in Beijing.

Zhongrun Resources Investment Corporation invests in real estate and explores for and produces minerals.

Zhongrun Resources Investment (000506 CH)

KWG Group Holdings Limited operates real estate development businesses. The Company develops and markets residential areas, office buildings, hotels, restaurants, and other related areas. KWG Group Holdings offers services in Hong Kong.

HNA Investment Group Co., Ltd. invests in real estate development, provides education services , and operates hotel. The Company also has operation in tourism and food services.

Henan Oriental Silver Star Investment Co., Ltd. develops mid-high end residential property in China Chongqing and nearby. It also provides property management services.

Henan Oriental Silver Star Inv (600753 CH)

Rongfeng Holding Group Co., Ltd. engages in sales of processed oil, development of real estate properties and property management.

Rongfeng Holding Group Co Ltd (000668 CH)

DongGuan Winnerway Industrial Zone Ltd. develops and manages Hongyuan Industrial Zone in Guangdong province.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates parks management, electric power and water distribution, bioengineering, and futures trading.

Dongguan Winnerway Industrial Zone Ltd (000573 CH)

China Calxon Group Co. Ltd. is a property development company.

SHL Consolidated Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, develops commercial and residential properties as well as general building construction, manufactures clay bricks and building materials, and provides professional construction management. SHL also operates a golf resort, and provides geo-technical services.

Sun Fun Construction Co Ltd develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial buildings.  The Company operates in the construction business through its subsidiary.

Paramount Corporation Berhad is an investment holding company that is primarily involved in property development and investment of residential and commercial properties.  The Company is also engaged in the provision of building and engineering contractor services along with providing private educational services.

PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is a full service real estate company. The Company develops and manages, residential, commercial, leisure, and recreational projects.

Lalin Property Public Company Limited builds single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, as well as commercial buildings in planned residential communities.  Most of the Company's projects are located in Bangkok suburbs.

CDL Investments New Zealand Limited operates as a property investment and development company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide land-based investment and development, management and the provision of property services. CDL Investments New Zealand serves clients in New Zealand.

Singha Estate PCL is a property developer specializing in residential projects in the Bangkok area.

Cheuk Nang (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests and develops properties in Hong Kong and Malaysia.  The Company also provides property management services and mortgage lending services.

Naim Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates property development and investment as well as provides construction and civil engineering and construction works.  Naim also manufactures and sells reinforced concrete piles, trades cement,  steel bar, and wire mesh, as well as provides earthwork contractor services.

MKH Berhad is a property development company. The Company's current portfolio comprises a range of developments across all property sectors which are mainly located in Kajang, Damansara, Semenyih, Serdang and Melawati. MKH is also involved in oil palm plantation, project management, property investment, construction and furniture manufacturing.

Thaihot Group Co Ltd manufactures and markets organic phosphorus pesticides and fine chemicals.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures pharmaceuticals and provides network information services as well as operates general trading business.

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Thaihot Group Co Ltd A (000732 CH)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Jul 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

China News That Matters Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle Worried homebuyers – and developers Forging those new Silk...

Diana Choyleva

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 07 Nov 2018

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Tahoe Group - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics

Tahoe Group Co Ltd is conducting a roadshow for a Reg S-only USD bond issuance. The proceeds will be used for onshore property development and...

Lucror Analytics

China Property: What's Going On With House Prices... Based On The Latest NBS Data

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)