Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. </p>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Jul 2019

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2><strong>China News That Matters</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle</li>
<li>Worried homebuyers – and developers</li>
<li>Forging those new Silk Roads</li>
<li>Copycats no more?</li>
<li>And another thing… Central bank reaches out</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks">
<p>In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</p>
</div>

China News That Matters

Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle
Worried homebuyers – and developers
Forging those new Silk Roads
Copycats no more?
And another thing… Central bank reaches out


In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.


Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 07 Nov 2018

Debt Capital Markets

Thaihot Group Co Ltd A / Debt Capital Markets

<p>Tahoe Group Co Ltd is conducting a roadshow for a Reg S-only USD bond issuance. The proceeds will be used for onshore property development and general corporate purposes. The issuance amount and tenor are to be announced.<br /><br />Established in 1996, the property developer has a focus on mid-range and high-end projects in T1 and T2 cities. We view Tahoe as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, due to its: [1] weak financial profile, with very high leverage; [2] opaque parent entity with inadequate disclosure; [3] poor cash collection; and [4] questionable access to capital. That said, Tahoe is growing quickly, with a well-regarded brand and relatively high-quality products. The company's operations are geographically diversified, with a good mix of residential and commercial projects.<br /><br />We see fair value in the 8%-8.5% range (incorporating a new-issuer premium), and do not recommend that investors participate below this range. That said, the company may be targetting levels as low as 6.5%-7.5%, based on other single B rated credits.<br /></p>

Tahoe Group Co Ltd is conducting a roadshow for a Reg S-only USD bond issuance. The proceeds will be used for onshore property development and general corporate purposes. The issuance amount and tenor are to be announced.  Established in 1996, the property developer has a focus on mid-range and high-end projects in T1 and T2 cities. We view Tahoe as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, due to its: [1] weak financial profile, with very high leverage; [2] opaque parent entity with inadequate disclosure; [3] poor cash collection; and [4] questionable access to capital. That said, Tahoe is growing quickly, with a well-regarded brand and relatively high-quality products. The company's operations are geographically diversified, with a good mix of residential and commercial projects.  We see fair value in the 8%-8.5% range (incorporating a new-issuer premium), and do not recommend that investors participate below this range. That said, the company may be targetting levels as low as 6.5%-7.5%, based on other single B rated credits. 

Tahoe Group - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.2% in January to +11.8% in February, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up from +0.2% to +0.3%.</p><p>Top risers on a 12-month basis now show some of the more significant declines on the month-on-month basis, while there are more cities with house prices rising.</p><p>The biggest…</p>

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +12.2% in January to +11.8% in February, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up from +0.2% to +0.3%.Top risers on a 12-month basis now show some of the more significant declines on the month-on-month basis, while there are more cities with house prices rising.The biggest…

China Property: What's Going On With House Prices... Based On The Latest NBS Data

China

Thaihot Group Co Ltd manufactures and markets organic phosphorus pesticides and fine chemicals.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures pharmaceuticals and provides network information services as well as operates general trading business.

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Thaihot Group Co Ltd A (000732 CH)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Jul 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Tech War/Property Woes/BRI/IPR/PBoC Speaks

China News That Matters Tech tycoon’s daughter trapped in US-China struggle Worried homebuyers – and developers Forging those new Silk...

Diana Choyleva

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 07 Nov 2018

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Tahoe Group - New Issue Assessment - Lucror Analytics

Tahoe Group Co Ltd is conducting a roadshow for a Reg S-only USD bond issuance. The proceeds will be used for onshore property development and...

Lucror Analytics

China Property: What's Going On With House Prices... Based On The Latest NBS Data

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for February for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate show a further gradual...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)