Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TU reported a 2Q23 net profit at Bt1.0bn (-37% YoY, +1% QoQ). The earnings fell YoY because of a decline in sales as well as a dilution effect after ITC was listed to the SET.</li><li>The 2Q23 earnings beat our forecast by 25% as the GPM of 16.9% was better than our estimate of 16.2%.</li><li>Operating expenses to sales marked at 11.7%, lower than the expectation of 12.6% (approximately Bt400mn), and credit tax expenses exceeded our expectation (by around Bt100mn).</li></ul>

TU reported a 2Q23 net profit at Bt1.0bn (-37% YoY, +1% QoQ). The earnings fell YoY because of a decline in sales as well as a dilution effect after ITC was listed to the SET.The 2Q23 earnings beat our forecast by 25% as the GPM of 16.9% was better than our estimate of 16.2%.Operating expenses to sales marked at 11.7%, lower than the expectation of 12.6% (approximately Bt400mn), and credit tax expenses exceeded our expectation (by around Bt100mn).

Earnings Review - Thai Union Group Plc. (TU) - AUGUST 8, 2023

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.</li><li>In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.</li><li>Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. </li></ul>

The projected outlook for agricultural and food businesses in 2Q24E indicates a notable recovery both YoY and QoQ.In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits, with further growth expected from their reported better-than- expected operating results in 1Q24.Consequently, we have revised our profit forecasts upward for CPF, TFG and SAPPE. While acknowledging the sector's rebound in operating results, driving up share prices, we maintain a Neutral rating due to stretched valuations, as indicated by the earnings yield method. 

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.</li><li>During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.</li><li>In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.</li></ul>

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.During that period, major operators experienced losses due to rising costs and declining prices, exacerbated by an influx of illegal swine supply and further compounded by sluggish consumption.In 1H24E, domestic swine supply is projected to stabilize, with excess supply gradually diminishing.

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

<ul><li>We have a negative view on the information obtained from the recent analyst meeting.</li><li>The earnings outlook in 1Q23E seems gloomy, with the firm revising down its sales growth and gross profit margin targets.</li><li>This led us to trim our 2023-24E core profit projections by 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively.</li></ul>

We have a negative view on the information obtained from the recent analyst meeting.The earnings outlook in 1Q23E seems gloomy, with the firm revising down its sales growth and gross profit margin targets.This led us to trim our 2023-24E core profit projections by 4.6% and 4.8%, respectively.

Thai Union Group - 2023-24E Earnings Forecasts Revised Down

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.</li><li>Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.</li><li><div><div><p>The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.</p></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

Thailand

Sappe Public Company Limited manufactures and distributes health drinks. The Company manufactures dietary and fruit juice drinks. Sappe distributes their products internationally.

President Bakery PCL produces and distributes a wide variety of baked goods to fast food restaurants and convenient stores.  The company also sells its product through its own retail stores under Farmhouse shop and Deliya by Farmhouse.

Ichitan Group PCL operates in the beverage industry. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes a variety of tea beverages.

Thaitheparos PCL manufactures food seasoning products including flavor sauce, vinegar, chili sauce, tomato sauce, oyster sauce, chili and tomato sauce, soy sauce, and powdered sauce, under branded names.  The Company also produces canned fruits.

Thai Vegetable Oil Public Company Limited produces and markets soybean cooking oil under its A-ngoon brand name.  Additionally, the Company produced other soybean products including soymeal, full-fat soy, cooked and un-extracted soybeanseed, and lecithin.  Its products are also used in industrial applications such as the production of paint or canned food.

GFPT Public Company Limited produces frozen chicken parts and distributes its products under GFPT, Common Food, and Nichirei Core.  The Company sells its products to domestic and export markets.

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corp PCL produces and distributes sugar to domestic and international clients.  The Company also produces bio products, which are used by-products from sugar production as raw materials, such as paper pulp from bagasse, and, ethanol from molasses and electrical energy from biomass.

Kaset Thai International Sugar Corp (KTIS TB)

Exotic Food Public Company Limited manufactures Thai food products that are sold in independent food stores globally.

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL produces sugar, energy and agricultural products. The Company produces sugar and molasses, fertilizers, ethanol, and electricity.

Siam Food Products Public Company Limited produces canned pineapple, canned fruit salad, and concentrate pineapple juice under Siam Food brand name. Majority of its products are exported to North America, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Morinaga & Co., Ltd. produces confectionery products, canned soft drinks, and ice cream.  The Company also produces health foods and pharmaceutical products, and manages restaurant and real estate businesses.

FUJI OIL HOLDINGS INC. produces palm oil and coconut oil.  The Company also produces a variety of oil-related products, such as cooking oil, oil and fat products, and soybean protein products.

Zydus Wellness Ltd. processes dairy products.  The Company produces margarine, butter, and cheese.

TreeHouse Foods, Inc. is a food manufacturer servicing primarily the retail grocery and foodservice distribution channels. The Company's products include non-dairy powdered coffee creamer; canned soups, salad dressings and sauces; salsa and Mexican sauces; jams and pie fillings, pickles, and related products.

Established in 1992 and listed on the Singapore Exchange since 2007, First Resources is one of the leading palm oil producers in the region, managing over 200,000 hectares of oil palm plantations across the Riau, East Kalimantan and West Kalimantan provinces of Indonesia.

Our core business activities include cultivating oil palms, harvesting the fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and milling them into crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK). In addition to plantations and palm oil mills, the Group through its refinery, fractionation, biodiesel and kernel crushing plants, processes its CPO and PK production into higher value palm-based products such as biodiesel, refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) olein and RBD stearin, palm kernel oil and palm kernel expeller. This enables the Group to extract maximum value out of our upstream plantation assets. Our products are sold to both local and international markets.

First Resources is committed to the production of sustainable palm oil. Our sustainability strategy is centred upon maximising output while minimising the adverse environmental and social impact from our operations. We will constantly strengthen our sustainability framework through regular benchmarking against industry standards and best practices.

NIPPON SUISAN KAISHA, Ltd. fishes and purchases seafood, and produces seafood products including fresh, frozen, and canned fish.  The Company also produces fish oil and fish meal, and operates cold storage business.

House Foods Group Inc manufactures and sells spices and flavorings. The Company also produces snacks, instant noodles, and ingredients for cooking. House Foods Group serves both household and commercial buyers.

Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co., Ltd operates in farming, winery, and food businesses.  The Company manufactures meat products and white spirits, raises pigs, produces seeds, manufactures pharmaceuticals, as well as grows and processes vegetables and fruits.

Beijing Shunxin Agriculture A (000860 CH)

Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd. processes and sells milk and other dairy products. The Company's products include liquid milk, milk powder, yogurt, cheese, and juice. Shanghai Bright operates the Shanghai Kedi Convenience Store.

EZAKI GLICO CO., LTD. produces and sells confections including chocolate snacks, candy bars, cookies, and chilled desserts.  The Company also produces prepared foods such as retort pouches and curry powders.

Thai Union Group Public Company Limited produces and exports frozen and canned seafood products including frozen tuna loin, shrimp and cephalopod. The Company also produces canned pet foods from by products of its seafood process.  Additionally, the Company produces fish snack and canned tuna which are marketed locally.

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Thai Union Group (TU TB)

Earnings Review - Thai Union Group Plc. (TU) - AUGUST 8, 2023

TU reported a 2Q23 net profit at Bt1.0bn (-37% YoY, +1% QoQ). The earnings fell YoY because of a decline in sales as well as a dilution effect...

Krungthai XSpring

Agri & Food: Momentum in 2Q24E Expected to Grow YoY and QoQ

In particular, major meat operators, including those engaged in the swine business in Vietnam, are anticipated to shift from losses in 2Q23 to profits

Krungthai XSpring

Meat Sector – Thai Swine Prices to Recover in 2H24E

The Thai swine industry is anticipated to face continued challenges this year, though not as severe as the difficulties encountered in 2023.

Krungthai XSpring

Thai Union Group - 2023-24E Earnings Forecasts Revised Down

The earnings outlook in 1Q23E seems gloomy, with the firm revising down its sales growth and gross profit margin targets.

Krungthai XSpring

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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