Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

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Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0(from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22.TOP’s 3Q22 net profit declined to Bt12.0m (-99% YoY, -100% QoQ)</li>
<li>Weak GRM and stock loss dragged 3Q22 profit The 3Q22 net profit plunged to Bt12.0m,compared to Bt2.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt25.3bn in 2Q22.The result came our lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>Excluding the extra items (stock loss of Bt9.2bn), the operating profit stood at Bt5.5bn (+343%YoY, -75%QoQ).The YoY growth was underpinned by a 60% surge in GIM following improved refinery margin</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0(from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22.TOP’s 3Q22 net profit declined to Bt12.0m (-99% YoY, -100% QoQ)
Weak GRM and stock loss dragged 3Q22 profit The 3Q22 net profit plunged to Bt12.0m,compared to Bt2.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt25.3bn in 2Q22.The result came our lower than our expectation.
Excluding the extra items (stock loss of Bt9.2bn), the operating profit stood at Bt5.5bn (+343%YoY, -75%QoQ).The YoY growth was underpinned by a 60% surge in GIM following improved refinery margin


TOP : 3Q22 Earnings Hit by Weak GRM and Stock Loss

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a target price of Bt71. The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5x QoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high</li>
<li>Strong refinery performance drove 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5xQoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high.The result came out better than market expectation and 12% </li>
<li>Excluding the extra items viz, divestment of GPSC stake (Bt17.3bn), stock gain (Bt7.6bn), Hedging (-Bt10.3bn) and FX loss (-Bt1.3bn), the recurring profit stood at Bt14.7bn (+10x YoY, +2.5x QoQ). </li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a target price of Bt71. The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5x QoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high
Strong refinery performance drove 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5xQoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high.The result came out better than market expectation and 12% 
Excluding the extra items viz, divestment of GPSC stake (Bt17.3bn), stock gain (Bt7.6bn), Hedging (-Bt10.3bn) and FX loss (-Bt1.3bn), the recurring profit stood at Bt14.7bn (+10x YoY, +2.5x QoQ). 


TOP : Strong Refinery Performance & Extra Gain Drove 2Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>We have a positive view on the 2Q22 earnings performance as the net profit is expected to surge +10x YoY and+2xQoQ to Bt22.5bn, mainly driven by an all-time high GRM</li>
<li>Bright 2Q22 earnings outlook We estimate TOP to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt22.5bn (+962% YoY, +214% QoQ).The significant earnings growth will be supported by an all-time high gross refinery</li>
<li>The strong refinery performance should aid the group’s gross integrated margin rise to US$24/bbl (up from US$7.6/bbl in 1Q22),despite the weak contribution from aromatics &amp; LAB segment as the product </li>
</ul>


We have a positive view on the 2Q22 earnings performance as the net profit is expected to surge +10x YoY and+2xQoQ to Bt22.5bn, mainly driven by an all-time high GRM
Bright 2Q22 earnings outlook We estimate TOP to post 2Q22 net profit of Bt22.5bn (+962% YoY, +214% QoQ).The significant earnings growth will be supported by an all-time high gross refinery
The strong refinery performance should aid the group’s gross integrated margin rise to US$24/bbl (up from US$7.6/bbl in 1Q22),despite the weak contribution from aromatics &amp; LAB segment as the product 


<ul>
<li>TOP reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt7.2bn (+114% YoY, +43% QoQ),a 5-quarter high, driven by strong refinery segment performance and stock gain. The result came out better than our expectation.</li>
<li>The accounting EBITDA spiked to Bt13.0bn(+58% YoY,+114% QoQ).Despite the weak performance of petrochemical,power and other segments, the strong refinery segment (+124% YoY, +178% QoQ) operation under pinned the overall growth.</li>
<li>Positive 2Q22 outlook, The strong GRM should continue in 2Q22 and ahead backed by solid gasoline, jet fuel and diesel spreads from global economic recovery.</li>
</ul>


TOP reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt7.2bn (+114% YoY, +43% QoQ),a 5-quarter high, driven by strong refinery segment performance and stock gain. The result came out better than our expectation.
The accounting EBITDA spiked to Bt13.0bn(+58% YoY,+114% QoQ).Despite the weak performance of petrochemical,power and other segments, the strong refinery segment (+124% YoY, +178% QoQ) operation under pinned the overall growth.
Positive 2Q22 outlook, The strong GRM should continue in 2Q22 and ahead backed by solid gasoline, jet fuel and diesel spreads from global economic recovery.


TOP: Solid Refinery Performance Drove 1Q22 Profit

<ul>
<li>The BOD approved TOP’s recapitalization plan which includes 1)disposal of GPSC stake (by 2Q22) and 2) capital increase (within 2022). The proceeds will be used for repaying bridge loans raised</li>
<li>The company will raise around Bt22.4bn by sale of its 10.78% stake in GPSC. And around Bt12-to-14bn by equity offering of up to 239.2m newly issued shares with green shoe</li>
<li>Positive view on recapitalization plan, given the investment in CAP will provide an entry to high potential Olefin's business segment. Also,We see the net EPS dilution to be below 5%</li>
</ul>


The BOD approved TOP’s recapitalization plan which includes 1)disposal of GPSC stake (by 2Q22) and 2) capital increase (within 2022). The proceeds will be used for repaying bridge loans raised
The company will raise around Bt22.4bn by sale of its 10.78% stake in GPSC. And around Bt12-to-14bn by equity offering of up to 239.2m newly issued shares with green shoe
Positive view on recapitalization plan, given the investment in CAP will provide an entry to high potential Olefin's business segment. Also,We see the net EPS dilution to be below 5%


Thailand

Banpu Public Company Limited mines for coal and other minerals. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal, and have expertise in open-pit and underground coal mining operations, as well as coal-fired power generation.  Banpu PCL has business bases in Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, China, Australia and Mongolia.

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

Esso Thailand PCL is a fully integrated oil business, including oil refinery and production. The Company provides liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, marine fuel, lubricants, aromatic products and other related products such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), solvents, plasticizers, and benzene concentrate stream.

IRPC PCL produces a variety of petrochemical products including polypropylene, high density polyethylene and expandable polystyrene primarily used in packaging materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company produces and distributes gasoline, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), asphalt, as well as electricity and construction materials.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

Prima Marine Public Company Limited operates as a marine vessel management firm. The Company offers oil-tanker, crude oil, liquefied petrochemicals, and petroleum products transportation services. Prima Marine also provides shipbuilding, shipping, and storage services. Prima Marine serves customers in the Asia Pacific region.

Siamgas & Petrochemicals PCL distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The Company provides LPG, ammonia and other related petrochemical products such as propane, butane and propellant. Siamgas is also involved in the logistics services for LPG and petrochemical products.

The Lanna Resources Public Company Limited mines and distributes lignite and granite products in Thailand.  The Company produces two types of granite products, polished granite slab and granite block.  Its lignite is supplied to power generation, cement, paper, and food industries.  Additionally, Lanna imports coal for domestic distribution.

SUSCO Pcl distributes petroleum products including unleaded and regular gasoline and diesel oil through its gasoline filling stations and directly to large end-users.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as an oil agent and offers marine freight transportation services.

Asian Insulators Public Company Limited manufactures electrical porcelain insulators for use in low, medium and high voltage applications such as underground power lines, overhead power lines, and power distribution systems and sub-stations.

Shanxi Meijin Energy Co., Ltd. produces coal and related products.

Shanxi Meijin Energy Co, Ltd. (000723 CH)

New Hope Corporation Limited is a thermal coal production company based in Australia. The Company also has interests in logistics and infrastructure operations in Australia as well.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. provides oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company focuses on discovering new petroleum systems and to grow and mature discovered hydrocarbon basins, as well as development and production projects. Kosmos Energy serves customers worldwide.

Peabody Energy Corporation mines and markets low sulfur coal, primarily for use by electric utilities. The Company also trades coal and emission allowances. Peabody owns and operates mines in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, Illinois, Indiana, and Australia.

Paladin Energy Ltd operates as a mining company. The Company explores and mines uranium. Paladin Energy serves customers worldwide.

Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. operates underground coal mining, coal washing and processing. The company also provides ground transportation services.

Jizhong Energy Resources Co., Ltd. produces and markets coal products, generates electric power, and manufactures cement.

CVR Energy, Inc. is an independent refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. The Company, also through a limited partnership produces ammonia and urea ammonia nitrate, or UAN, fertilizers.

Gulfport Energy Corporation operates as an energy exploration and production company. The Company focuses on oil and natural gas exploration and production services. Gulfport Energy serves clients in the United States.

PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, (GEMS) operates as a holding company. Through its  s ubsidiaries, the Company mines for coal. GEMS' supplies paper mills and export energy markets including China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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Thai Oil Pcl (TOP TB)

TOP : 3Q22 Earnings Hit by Weak GRM and Stock Loss

We maintain the BUY call with a new target price of Bt64.0 (from Bt71.0), incorporating the capital increase completed in 3Q22. TOP’s 3Q22 net...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP : Strong Refinery Performance & Extra Gain Drove 2Q22 Profit

We maintain the BUY call with a target price of Bt71. The 2Q22 net profit rose +10x YoY and +2.5x QoQ to Bt25.3bn, a new quarterly high, mainly...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP : Strong 2Q22 Performance Outlook

We have a positive view on the 2Q22 earnings performance as the net profit is expected to surge +10x YoY and +2x QoQ to Bt22.5bn, mainly driven by...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP: Solid Refinery Performance Drove 1Q22 Profit

TOP reported 1Q22 net profit of Bt7.2bn (+114% YoY, +43% QoQ), a 5-quarter high, driven by strong refinery segment performance and stock gain. The...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

TOP: Capital Increase Within 2022

The BOD approved TOP’s recapitalization plan which includes 1) disposal of GPSC stake (by 2Q22) and 2) capital increase (within 2022). The proceeds...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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