Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Krungthai XSpring

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>Company Update</p>
<h2>Thai Oil Plc. (TOP)</h2>
<p>Energy &amp; Utilities</p>
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<h3>Moving into olefins value chain</h3>
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<p>We have a neutral view on TOP’s move into the olefins value chain via a 15.38% direct investment in CAP, expecting a negligible incremental contribution in the early years along with a possible 12% dilution effect from the company’s planned capital increase. But the investment will bear more fruit in the longer term upon the kick-off of the new petrochemical plant expansion (CAP2) in 2026E, increasing…</p>
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<p>Company Update</p>
<h2>Thai Oil Plc. (TOP)</h2>
<p>Energy &amp; Utilities</p>
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<h3>Refinery still a challenge, pursuing growth momentum</h3>
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<p>The spread of the Delta variant is likely to slow down the recovery of the refining market, posing a continuing challenge to TOP’s core earnings from the refinery. Meanwhile, the company’s pursuit of growth should create upside to its capital expenditures (Capex) cycle beyond the Clean Fuel Project (CFP), possibly tightening its financial position and leading to risk of a capital…</p>
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<p>Company Update</p>
<h2>Thai Oil Plc. (TOP)</h2>
<p>Energy &amp; Utilities</p>
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<h3>Resuming momentum, with the refinery still the challenge</h3>
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<p>We maintain our view that 2021E will be a stronger year for the company, with aromatics and lube base as the cushion and the refinery as the challenge. We see potential upside for its capital expenditures (Capex) cycle beyond Clean Fuel Project (CFP), possibly tightening its financial position and creating risk of a capital increase as an option. We retain a Hold rating on TOP…</p>
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<p>Company Update</p>
<h2>Thai Oil Plc. (TOP)</h2>
<p>Energy &amp; Utilities</p>
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<h3>Refinery to continue challenging earnings</h3>
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<p>We maintain our view that 2021E will be a stronger year for the company, with aromatics and lube base as the cushion and the refinery as the challenge. We expect its capital expenditures (Capex) cycle beyond CFP to have potential upside, possibly tightening its financial position and creating risk of a capital increase as an option. We maintain a Hold rating on TOP, with the newly revised…</p>
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<p>Earnings Review</p>
<h2>Thai Oil Plc. (TOP)</h2>
<p>Energy &amp; Utilities</p>
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<h3>2020 earnings in line; challenges remain in 2021E</h3>
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<p>The company’s soaring 4Q20 NP was mainly driven by one-off gain, stock gain and forex gain. Meanwhile, we expect stronger momentum for its core earnings in 2021E, but challenges remain as the refining margin will be weighed down by the slow recovery of crack spreads and a higher crude premium. Thus, we maintain a Hold rating on TOP and reaffirm our preference for downstream…</p>
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Thailand

Thai Oil Public Company Limited is an oil refinery company. The Company imports crude oil and refines it into gasoline.  It also produces oil related products including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, fuel oil and chemicals. Thai oil supplies its products to domestic market where its major customers include Shell, Caltex Oil and the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

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