CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

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His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to all our Thai friends in your time of grief.Thailand is sailing into unchartered waters, considering that nearly everyone alive has only known one King and that his fiat power was immense, built up over years of devotion to the country.We expect that the Thai stock market will be hurt in the near term, but will eventually stabilize.

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

Equity Bottom-Up

Thai Airways International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Cheap on a gross profit basis, low price-to-sales, and low correlation to the Thai market relative to its sector</li><li>THAI plans on replacing 23 of its aircraft, a quarter of its fleet, which should provide fuel efficiency together with comfort and quality for passengers. The delivery of two A350-900s should follow in 3Q16</li><li>THAI has plans for more rationalization of its network, including better connections for routes, which should help to improve profit margins</li><li>Trades below ASEAN Transportation at 16CE* 13.8x PE, with an expected massive rebound in earnings in 2016 as THAI has started to turn</li><li>Risks: A sudden strong rally in oil prices</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Cheap on a gross profit basis, low price-to-sales, and low correlation to the Thai market relative to its sectorTHAI plans on replacing 23 of its aircraft, a quarter of its fleet, which should provide fuel efficiency together with comfort and quality for passengers. The delivery of two A350-900s should follow in 3Q16THAI has plans for more rationalization of its network, including better connections for routes, which should help to improve profit marginsTrades below ASEAN Transportation at 16CE* 13.8x PE, with an expected massive rebound in earnings in 2016 as THAI has started to turnRisks: A sudden strong rally in oil prices* Consensus Estimates

THAI: Flag Carrier Plane Reboot to Save Fuel, Add Comfort

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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<ul>
<li>Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.</li>
<li>ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.</li>
<li>A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.</li>
<li>Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.</li>
<li>BUY…</li>
</ul>


Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos.
ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with the US and should be a united front in protesting Chinese intrusions into the South China Sea.
A high-profile spat with Philippine president Duterte was an unfortunate distraction and an unhelpful development for the Philippines which benefits from strong U.S. support.
Thailand and Malaysia look like the best opportunities in ASEAN in the medium-term.
BUY…


Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Samui Airport Property Fund / Equity Bottom-Up

Thailand accounts for almost half the ASEAN tourism receipts, but further expansion at AOT's key Suvanabhummi Airport will be slow due to the civil servant's culture still looming at large. We prefer to look at Samui Airports (SPF), a monopoly at one of Thailand's hottest tourist spot controlled by a much more expensive parent company Bangkok Airways (BA).In the airline space, check out Asia Aviation (AAV), which operates Air Asia in Thailand. The company is revolutionizing Thai airline industry, having grown low-cost travel tenfolds over the last decade and marginalizing legacy flag carrier Thai Airways (THAI). Also, we suspect Tony Fernandes has grand design of building his own airports in Thailand. Scroll down and find out: 1) why we sold BA, a really well run boutique airline; 2) why AAV is the only Thai-based airline stock being closely watched for potential investment at MCorp Review; and 3) what we think about the King Power deal with AAV.

Thailand accounts for almost half the ASEAN tourism receipts, but further expansion at AOT's key Suvanabhummi Airport will be slow due to the civil servant's culture still looming at large. We prefer to look at Samui Airports (SPF), a monopoly at one of Thailand's hottest tourist spot controlled by a much more expensive parent company Bangkok Airways (BA).In the airline space, check out Asia Aviation (AAV), which operates Air Asia in Thailand. The company is revolutionizing Thai airline industry, having grown low-cost travel tenfolds over the last decade and marginalizing legacy flag carrier Thai Airways (THAI). Also, we suspect Tony Fernandes has grand design of building his own airports in Thailand. Scroll down and find out: 1) why we sold BA, a really well run boutique airline; 2) why AAV is the only Thai-based airline stock being closely watched for potential investment at MCorp Review; and 3) what we think about the King Power deal with AAV.

Aviators & Airports: The Ongoing Revolution

Thailand

Thai Airways International Public Company Limited is Thailand's national airline providing air transportation, freight and mail services on domestic and international routes including Asia, Europe, North America, Africa and South West Pacific.  The Company is a state enterprise which is controlled by the government and partly owned by the public.

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Thai Airways International (THAI TB)

Thailand Mourns Fallen King, Healing Will Take Some Time

His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) passed away at Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok yesterday, 13 October 2016, at 3.52pm. Our condolences to...

A. Stotz Investment Research

THAI: Flag Carrier Plane Reboot to Save Fuel, Add Comfort

Cheap on a gross profit basis, low price-to-sales, and low correlation to the Thai market relative to its sector THAI plans on replacing 23 of its...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Takeaways from ASEAN - Investment Opportunities

Obama continues the 'pivot to Asia' by attending the ASEAN meeting in Laos. ASEAN is a critical component of SE Asian stability, partnership with...

David Riedel

Aviators & Airports: The Ongoing Revolution

Thailand accounts for almost half the ASEAN tourism receipts, but further expansion at AOT's key Suvanabhummi Airport will be slow due to the civil...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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Market Cap (USDm)

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