CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Solid short-term sales momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low correlation relative to its sector</li><li>Consolidation in the Chinese coal production sector has reduced total global supply, leading to improved pricing prospects for coal over the longer term; average selling price for LANNA was up by 28% in 2017</li><li>In February, LANNA entered an agreement for one of its Indonesian subsidiaries’ concessions that should effectively reduce the US$1.25 per tonnes service fee by 41% over the next eight years</li><li>LANNA has seen great profitability improvements in 2017, has a solid net-cash position and a track record of consistently high dividend yield</li><li>Risk: Sudden fall in Chinese demand</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Solid short-term sales momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low correlation relative to its sectorConsolidation in the Chinese coal production sector has reduced total global supply, leading to improved pricing prospects for coal over the longer term; average selling price for LANNA was up by 28% in 2017In February, LANNA entered an agreement for one of its Indonesian subsidiaries’ concessions that should effectively reduce the US$1.25 per tonnes service fee by 41% over the next eight yearsLANNA has seen great profitability improvements in 2017, has a solid net-cash position and a track record of consistently high dividend yieldRisk: Sudden fall in Chinese demand* Consensus Estimates

LANNA (LANNA TB): Improving Margins in Indonesia

<ul><li>Strong stock price momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low correlation relative to its sector</li><li>Consolidation in the Chinese coal production sector has reduced total global supply, leading to improved pricing prospects for coal over the longer term</li><li>The company’s less noxious low-sulphur coal mined in Indonesia should also see better demand compared to Chinese domestic high-sulphur coal</li><li>LANNA has seen great profitability improvements in 9M17, has a solid net-cash position and a track record of consistently high dividend yield</li><li>Risk: Sudden fall in Chinese demand</li></ul>

Strong stock price momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low correlation relative to its sectorConsolidation in the Chinese coal production sector has reduced total global supply, leading to improved pricing prospects for coal over the longer termThe company’s less noxious low-sulphur coal mined in Indonesia should also see better demand compared to Chinese domestic high-sulphur coalLANNA has seen great profitability improvements in 9M17, has a solid net-cash position and a track record of consistently high dividend yieldRisk: Sudden fall in Chinese demand

LANNA (LANNA TB): Doubled Earnings so Far in 2017

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think logically about the macro picture, since those may have an impact on whether companies can recover or would lose relevance in the marketplace altogether.From our observations, the companies in Thailand that do turn around tend to follow one or more of these four measures, namely: 1) operations: a complete transformation rather than minor patch-ups (eg. KARMART, IVL); 2) competitive strategy: changing the frame of reference (PIZZA...now part of MINT); 3) debt restructuring (BLAND, TPI); and 4) marketing: re-branding (eg. DTAC, BTS). Whether you are stuck with certain investments or thinking about investing in potential turnaround plays, observing these four traits or steps could be helpful.

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think logically about the macro picture, since those may have an impact on whether companies can recover or would lose relevance in the marketplace altogether.From our observations, the companies in Thailand that do turn around tend to follow one or more of these four measures, namely: 1) operations: a complete transformation rather than minor patch-ups (eg. KARMART, IVL); 2) competitive strategy: changing the frame of reference (PIZZA...now part of MINT); 3) debt restructuring (BLAND, TPI); and 4) marketing: re-branding (eg. DTAC, BTS). Whether you are stuck with certain investments or thinking about investing in potential turnaround plays, observing these four traits or steps could be helpful.

Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy &amp; Resources.Geo Energy Resources has been the strongest performer among the four upstream plays in the 2016 year to date with a 37.9% gain. On 12 August,  Geo Energy Group reported that for the six months ending 30 June 2016, company revenue was US$33 million compared to US$10 million for the same period a year ago.

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy &amp; Resources.Geo Energy Resources has been the strongest performer among the four upstream plays in the 2016 year to date with a 37.9% gain. On 12 August,  Geo Energy Group reported that for the six months ending 30 June 2016, company revenue was US$33 million compared to US$10 million for the same period a year ago.

Geo Energy Resources Led Upstream Coal Plays in 2016 YTD

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Thailand

Thai Agro Energy Public Co., Ltd. produces and distributes ethanol for fuel.

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Thai Agro Energy (TAE TB)

LANNA (LANNA TB): Improving Margins in Indonesia

Solid short-term sales momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low correlation relative to its sector Consolidation in the Chinese coal...

A. Stotz Investment Research

LANNA (LANNA TB): Doubled Earnings so Far in 2017

Strong stock price momentum, sales on an upcycle trend, and low correlation relative to its sector Consolidation in the Chinese coal production...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Geo Energy Resources Led Upstream Coal Plays in 2016 YTD

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy & Resources.Geo...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

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