Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Stocks down on gloomy industry outlook<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/164/original/Leasing%20Perf.JPG?1453688159" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5164"></figure> Source: Bloomberg, DMER<ul>
<li>Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of container leasing companies tumbled through the year with stocks extending declines until the beginning of the new year. While the stocks of the three companies under our coverage – Textainer, TAL and CAI – more than halved, the two indices of S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Transportation contracted by just 1% and 18%, respectively.</li>
<li>
Container shipping and leasing companies…</li>
</ul>

 Stocks down on gloomy industry outlook Source: Bloomberg, DMER
Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of container leasing companies tumbled through the year with stocks extending declines until the beginning of the new year. While the stocks of the three companies under our coverage – Textainer, TAL and CAI – more than halved, the two indices of S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Transportation contracted by just 1% and 18%, respectively.

Container shipping and leasing companies…


Container Leasing 2016 - Outlook Remains Placid

Expect bigger players with financial flexibility to grow inorganically<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/101/original/Gas%20Consol.JPG?1453260844" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5101"></figure>  Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The VLGC market is highly fragmented as 54% vessel capacity is owned by small market players. We believe bigger players with financial flexibility will prefer to grow inorganically and establish their leadership in the sector. In our view, a wave of consolidation will be good for the sector as a whole because it will rationalise the vessel supply and bring efficiency in the pricing mechanism. • Lower…

Expect bigger players with financial flexibility to grow inorganically  Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The VLGC market is highly fragmented as 54% vessel capacity is owned by small market players. We believe bigger players with financial flexibility will prefer to grow inorganically and establish their leadership in the sector. In our view, a wave of consolidation will be good for the sector as a whole because it will rationalise the vessel supply and bring efficiency in the pricing mechanism. • Lower…

LPG Shipping - Consolidation Wave Set to Begin in the VLGC Sector?

2015: LNG/LPG shipping stocks fall prey to low oil prices<img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/094/original/Gas%20Perf.JPG?1453257539" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5094"> Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The downward trend in share prices that started in 4Q14 intensified in 2015 as the rout in oil prices marred investor sentiment. The broad-based selloff in gas shipping stocks wiped out USD 5.7bn of cumulative market capitalisation of our coverage universe, translating into a 49% loss in 2015. • Underwhelmed by the downward spiralling stock prices, some market participants resorted to buying back shares to underpin…

2015: LNG/LPG shipping stocks fall prey to low oil prices Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The downward trend in share prices that started in 4Q14 intensified in 2015 as the rout in oil prices marred investor sentiment. The broad-based selloff in gas shipping stocks wiped out USD 5.7bn of cumulative market capitalisation of our coverage universe, translating into a 49% loss in 2015. • Underwhelmed by the downward spiralling stock prices, some market participants resorted to buying back shares to underpin…

Gas Shipping 2016 - Is Capitulation over for Gas Shipping Stocks?

<figure class="editor-figure">Moderation likely but it ain't over yet<img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/034/original/Tank%20Price%20Performance.JPG?1453075386" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5034"></figure> Source: Bloomberg, DMER<ul>
<li>The uptrend in share prices that started in the tail end of FY14 continued in 2015 mainly on prospects of improved profitability of companies in a demand-driven market. The market capitalisation of DMER’s tanker shipping index moved up by ~USD 1.8bn because of the upsurge in stock prices and generated a return of ~27% during the year.</li>
<li>
Nordic American Tanker enjoyed the benefits of full exposure to the spot market as day rates remained…</li>
</ul>

Moderation likely but it ain't over yet Source: Bloomberg, DMER
The uptrend in share prices that started in the tail end of FY14 continued in 2015 mainly on prospects of improved profitability of companies in a demand-driven market. The market capitalisation of DMER’s tanker shipping index moved up by ~USD 1.8bn because of the upsurge in stock prices and generated a return of ~27% during the year.

Nordic American Tanker enjoyed the benefits of full exposure to the spot market as day rates remained…


Tanker Shipping-2016 - Moderation Likely but It Ain't over Yet, The Preferred Investment In Shipping

United States

Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) designs, builds, and maintains nuclear and non-nuclear ships for the United States Navy and Coast Guard. The Company also provides after-market services for military ships worldwide. HII consists of two primary business divisions, Newport News Shipbuilding and Ingalls Shipbuilding.

BWX Technologies, Inc. supplies nuclear components and fuel to the U.S. government. The Company offers precision manufactured components and services for the commercial nuclear power industry. BWX Technologies also provides technical, management, and site services to support governments in the operation of complex facilities and environmental remediation activities.

Curtiss-Wright Corporation designs, manufactures, and overhauls precision components and systems. The Company's systems provides engineered services to the aerospace, automotive, shipbuilding, oil, petrochemical, agricultural equipment, power generation, metal working, and fire and rescue industries.

Axon Enterprise, Inc. is a public safety technology company. The Company offers law enforcement, military, and self defense solutions. Axon Enterprise serves customers worldwide.

HEICO Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells aerospace products and services through its subsidiaries. The Company's customers include airlines and airmotive, as well as defense contractors and military agencies worldwide, including the United States Air Force, the United States Navy, and the National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA).

Teledyne Technologies Inc. provides electronic subsystems and instrumentation. The Company provides aerospace and defense electronics, digital imaging products & software, monitoring instrumentation for marine & environmental applications, harsh environment interconnect products, and subsystems for satellite communications.  Teledyne also provides engineered systems.

Moog Inc. manufactures precision motion control components and systems. The Company's actuation products control military and commercial aircraft, satellites and space vehicles, missiles, launch vehicles, automated industrial machinery, and medical equipment.

Hexcel Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets reinforcement products, composite materials, and engineered products.  The Company's products are used in the commercial aerospace, space and defense, electronics, general industrial, and recreation markets for a variety of end products.  Hexcel operates around the world.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. operates as a defense contractor and security systems integrator for the federal government and for state and local agencies. The Company offers services in weapon systems lifecycle support, military weapon range, security and surveillance systems, IT engineering, etc.

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, and produces small unmanned aircraft and fast charge systems for electric industrial vehicle batteries. The Company offers long range tracking antenna, sensors, and missile systems. AeroVironment markets its products in the United States.

Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. operates as an aircraft parts manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells aircraft gas turbine engine products, aircraft compressors, low pressure turbines, and other products. Hanwha Aerospace markets its products worldwide.

ST Engineering is a global technology, defence and engineering group with offices across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the U.S., serving customers in more than 100 countries. The Group uses technology and innovation to solve real-world problems and improve lives through its diverse portfolio of businesses across the aerospace, smart city, defence and public security segments. Headquartered in Singapore, ST Engineering reported revenue of $7.9b in FY2019 and it ranks among the largest companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. It is a component stock of the FTSE Straits Times Index, MSCI Singapore, iEdge SG ESG Transparency Index and iEdge SG ESG Leaders Index.

AECC Aviation Power Co. Ltd. manufactures and distributes aerospace products. The Company produces aircraft power devices, aerospace turbines, aerospace engines, and other products. AECC Aviation Power also provides equipment testing, equipment maintenance, and other services.


AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited manufactures aviation products. The Company mainly develops, produces, and sells aircrafts. AVIC Shenyang Aircraft also offers foreign investment, electronic products development, and other services.

AVIC Aircraft Co., Ltd. manufactures large and mid size aircraft components and aluminum materials. The Company primarily contracts and produces vertical stable board, horizontal stable board, front inspection door for Boeing 737, and components for Boeing 747 and ATR-42. AVIC Aircraft also produces decorating materials and automobile parts.

Leonardo SpA operates as a technology company. The Company provides its services to the aerospace, defense, and security sectors globally. Leonardo works on helicopters, aircrafts, aerostructures, airborne and space systems, land and naval defense electronics, and defense systems.

MTU Aero Engines AG develops and manufactures engines and offers commercial engine services and support.  The Company sells to manufacturers and operators of engines and industrial gas turbines across the world.

Melrose Industries PLC operates as a global aerospace business. The Company acquires and holds securities of under performing businesses primarily in the manufacturing sector.

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA develops, manufactures and markets high-technology aerospace and defense products, as well as systems for armed forces in Norway and other countries.  The Company produces anti-ship missiles, launchers, missile control systems, weapon control systems, and maritime and air traffic surveillance systems.

Saab AB is a high technology company.  The Company develops, manufactures, and delivers advanced products for the defense market.  Saab's operations include defense technology, command and control systems, military and commercial aircraft, and technical services, as well as missiles, space equipment, and aviation services.  The Company sells and markets its products internationally.

Textron Inc. is a global, multi-industry company with operations in aircraft, defense, industrial products, and finance.  The Company's products include airplanes, helicopters, weapons, and automotive products. Textron's finance division offers asset based lending, aviation, distribution, golf, and resort finance, as well as structured capital.

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Textron Inc (TXT US)

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Container Leasing 2016 - Outlook Remains Placid

Stocks down on gloomy industry outlook Source: Bloomberg, DMER Investors suffered massive wealth erosion in 2015, as share prices of container...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

LPG Shipping - Consolidation Wave Set to Begin in the VLGC Sector?

Expect bigger players with financial flexibility to grow inorganically Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The VLGC market is highly fragmented as 54% vessel...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Gas Shipping 2016 - Is Capitulation over for Gas Shipping Stocks?

2015: LNG/LPG shipping stocks fall prey to low oil prices Source: Bloomberg, DMER• The downward trend in share prices that started in 4Q14...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Tanker Shipping-2016 - Moderation Likely but It Ain't over Yet, The Preferred Investment In Shipping

Moderation likely but it ain't over yet Source: Bloomberg, DMER The uptrend in share prices that started in the tail end of FY14 continued in 2015...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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