Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters</li>
<li>The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters</li>
<li>We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels</li>
</ul>


TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters
The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters
We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels


<ul>
<li>TPL reported second quarter results exceeding our expectations as the increase in activity in the Permian Basin resulted in higher revenue across all segments. </li>
<li>TPL is benefiting from higher oil and gas prices enticing energy companies to boost production</li>
<li>The second quarter results did not show a rebound in overall barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) as we had hoped would be the case from the first quarter results.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported second quarter results exceeding our expectations as the increase in activity in the Permian Basin resulted in higher revenue across all segments. 
TPL is benefiting from higher oil and gas prices enticing energy companies to boost production
The second quarter results did not show a rebound in overall barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) as we had hoped would be the case from the first quarter results.


<ul>
<li>TPL reported a decrease in daily production in the first quarter as energy producers had difficulty sourcing adequate amounts of sand</li>
<li>The lower daily production resulted in TPL reporting lower than expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter than we were expecting</li>
<li>The delay in production rates should not alter TPL’s stock trajectory as earnings should bounce with daily production ramping again.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported a decrease in daily production in the first quarter as energy producers had difficulty sourcing adequate amounts of sand
The lower daily production resulted in TPL reporting lower than expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter than we were expecting
The delay in production rates should not alter TPL’s stock trajectory as earnings should bounce with daily production ramping again.


TPL: Special Dividend While Production Re-Ramps

<ul>
<li>TPL utilizing an unhedged strategy for its oil and gas royalties is set to announce first quarter results that should exceed expectations</li>
<li>Higher energy prices and more production should result in TPL reporting oil and gas royalties materially higher than the fourth quarter.</li>
<li>The increase in production benefits TPL’s water business. Oil producers need water during the fracking process. TPL’s water source is closer to producing oil wells</li>
</ul>


TPL utilizing an unhedged strategy for its oil and gas royalties is set to announce first quarter results that should exceed expectations
Higher energy prices and more production should result in TPL reporting oil and gas royalties materially higher than the fourth quarter.
The increase in production benefits TPL’s water business. Oil producers need water during the fracking process. TPL’s water source is closer to producing oil wells


<ul>
<li>TPL remains unhedged to the price of crude oil with Permian Basin output rising. Total output in the Permian Basin is projected to surpass 5 million barrels per day </li>
<li>The increase in output would have an immediate benefit to TPL in the form of royalties and could generate incremental water and surface land easement revenue</li>
<li>TPL’s stock has been selling off with the broader market in what we speculate could have to do with no action from TPL’s Board after the annual shareholder meeting</li>
</ul>


TPL remains unhedged to the price of crude oil with Permian Basin output rising. Total output in the Permian Basin is projected to surpass 5 million barrels per day 
The increase in output would have an immediate benefit to TPL in the form of royalties and could generate incremental water and surface land easement revenue
TPL’s stock has been selling off with the broader market in what we speculate could have to do with no action from TPL’s Board after the annual shareholder meeting


TPL: Rising Production, Raising Estimates

United States

Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns tracts of land in Texas, previously the property of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. The Trust issues transferable certificates of proprietary interest pro rata to the holders of certain debt securities of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. Texas's income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

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Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)

TPL: Rising Production, Raising PT

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TPL: Multiple Revenue Streams

TPL has multiple revenue streams, which energy producers are taking advantage of, especially when it comes to water sourcing and disposal.

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TPL: Special Dividend While Production Re-Ramps

A lower daily production rate on TPL's land resulted in Q1 results missing our estimates. The decline was due to operators having difficulty...

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TPL: Not High Enough, Raising Estimates

The continued rally in energy prices should have greater positive contribution to TPL's Q1 numbers than we had been forecasting.

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TPL: Rising Production, Raising Estimates

The increase in production at the Permian Basin would have positive implications for the firm. TPL should realize higher royalty revenue and EPS

BWS Financial Inc

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