Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TPL continues to use water as means to diversify from oil and gas. The low price of natural gas has put pressure on the BOE price TPL generates royalties from.   </li>
<li>TPL missed our total revenue estimate for the second quarter due to a decline in oil and gas royalties. However, TPL’s water business remains the bright spot of the business</li>
<li>We continue to believe TPL’s revenue sourced outside of oil and gas royalties could draw greater investor attention and result in a higher valuation for TPL’s stock. </li>
</ul>


TPL continues to use water as means to diversify from oil and gas. The low price of natural gas has put pressure on the BOE price TPL generates royalties from.   
TPL missed our total revenue estimate for the second quarter due to a decline in oil and gas royalties. However, TPL’s water business remains the bright spot of the business
We continue to believe TPL’s revenue sourced outside of oil and gas royalties could draw greater investor attention and result in a higher valuation for TPL’s stock. 


<ul>
<li>TPL reported first quarter results with a higher than expected revenue figure from water sales to go along with the Company’s disclosure of a new desalination technology</li>
<li>TPL’s quarterly results were better than we had projected due to the performance in water sales. Unlike second quarter 2023 results, TPL’s management referred to a pipeline of sales</li>
<li>TPL used the first quarter results to disclose a new method of desalination of produced water</li>
</ul>


TPL reported first quarter results with a higher than expected revenue figure from water sales to go along with the Company’s disclosure of a new desalination technology
TPL’s quarterly results were better than we had projected due to the performance in water sales. Unlike second quarter 2023 results, TPL’s management referred to a pipeline of sales
TPL used the first quarter results to disclose a new method of desalination of produced water


<ul>
<li>The return of higher crude oil prices could result in Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reporting higher than expected revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2023</li>
<li>TPL does not hedge its exposure to energy prices, which would have an outsize benefit when prices move higher like they have in the third quarter</li>
<li>Crude oil production has been rising even though total rig count has also declined from levels reached earlier in the year</li>
</ul>


The return of higher crude oil prices could result in Texas Pacific Land (TPL) reporting higher than expected revenue in the third and fourth quarters of 2023
TPL does not hedge its exposure to energy prices, which would have an outsize benefit when prices move higher like they have in the third quarter
Crude oil production has been rising even though total rig count has also declined from levels reached earlier in the year


<ul>
<li>The best combination of events for TPL is energy prices and production going up. This year, production levels in the Permian Basin recovered quickly from the seasonal decline.</li>
<li>The hinderance to TPL’s quarter could come from the price of natural gas, which declined throughout much of the first quarter due to the warmer winter weather</li>
<li>A majority of TPL’s revenue is from crude oil and natural gas royalties with production becoming the biggest factor in each quarter</li>
</ul>


The best combination of events for TPL is energy prices and production going up. This year, production levels in the Permian Basin recovered quickly from the seasonal decline.
The hinderance to TPL’s quarter could come from the price of natural gas, which declined throughout much of the first quarter due to the warmer winter weather
A majority of TPL’s revenue is from crude oil and natural gas royalties with production becoming the biggest factor in each quarter


<ul>
<li>TPL benefited from an increase in production rates in the Permian Basin to report better than expected fourth quarter results</li>
<li>Production has been volatile in recent quarters depending on multiple factors. The steady state of oil above $70 a barrel and improved supply chains has resulted in production rising. </li>
<li>The boost in earnings has led to TPL building a cash cushion of $725.2 million and creating anxiety for many investors as to what TPL’s management would do next</li>
</ul>


TPL benefited from an increase in production rates in the Permian Basin to report better than expected fourth quarter results
Production has been volatile in recent quarters depending on multiple factors. The steady state of oil above $70 a barrel and improved supply chains has resulted in production rising. 
The boost in earnings has led to TPL building a cash cushion of $725.2 million and creating anxiety for many investors as to what TPL’s management would do next


United States

Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns tracts of land in Texas, previously the property of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. The Trust issues transferable certificates of proprietary interest pro rata to the holders of certain debt securities of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. Texas's income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

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Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)

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The growing cash balance has raised anxiety levels as to what type of inorganic approach management could take towards expanding TPL's business....

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