Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters</li>
<li>The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters</li>
<li>We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels</li>
</ul>


TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters
The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters
We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels


<ul>
<li>TPL reported second quarter results exceeding our expectations as the increase in activity in the Permian Basin resulted in higher revenue across all segments. </li>
<li>TPL is benefiting from higher oil and gas prices enticing energy companies to boost production</li>
<li>The second quarter results did not show a rebound in overall barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) as we had hoped would be the case from the first quarter results.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported second quarter results exceeding our expectations as the increase in activity in the Permian Basin resulted in higher revenue across all segments. 
TPL is benefiting from higher oil and gas prices enticing energy companies to boost production
The second quarter results did not show a rebound in overall barrels of oil equivalent (“BOE”) as we had hoped would be the case from the first quarter results.


<ul>
<li>TPL reported a decrease in daily production in the first quarter as energy producers had difficulty sourcing adequate amounts of sand</li>
<li>The lower daily production resulted in TPL reporting lower than expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter than we were expecting</li>
<li>The delay in production rates should not alter TPL’s stock trajectory as earnings should bounce with daily production ramping again.</li>
</ul>


TPL reported a decrease in daily production in the first quarter as energy producers had difficulty sourcing adequate amounts of sand
The lower daily production resulted in TPL reporting lower than expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter than we were expecting
The delay in production rates should not alter TPL’s stock trajectory as earnings should bounce with daily production ramping again.


TPL: Special Dividend While Production Re-Ramps

<ul>
<li>TPL utilizing an unhedged strategy for its oil and gas royalties is set to announce first quarter results that should exceed expectations</li>
<li>Higher energy prices and more production should result in TPL reporting oil and gas royalties materially higher than the fourth quarter.</li>
<li>The increase in production benefits TPL’s water business. Oil producers need water during the fracking process. TPL’s water source is closer to producing oil wells</li>
</ul>


TPL utilizing an unhedged strategy for its oil and gas royalties is set to announce first quarter results that should exceed expectations
Higher energy prices and more production should result in TPL reporting oil and gas royalties materially higher than the fourth quarter.
The increase in production benefits TPL’s water business. Oil producers need water during the fracking process. TPL’s water source is closer to producing oil wells


<ul>
<li>TPL remains unhedged to the price of crude oil with Permian Basin output rising. Total output in the Permian Basin is projected to surpass 5 million barrels per day </li>
<li>The increase in output would have an immediate benefit to TPL in the form of royalties and could generate incremental water and surface land easement revenue</li>
<li>TPL’s stock has been selling off with the broader market in what we speculate could have to do with no action from TPL’s Board after the annual shareholder meeting</li>
</ul>


TPL remains unhedged to the price of crude oil with Permian Basin output rising. Total output in the Permian Basin is projected to surpass 5 million barrels per day 
The increase in output would have an immediate benefit to TPL in the form of royalties and could generate incremental water and surface land easement revenue
TPL’s stock has been selling off with the broader market in what we speculate could have to do with no action from TPL’s Board after the annual shareholder meeting


TPL: Rising Production, Raising Estimates

United States

APA Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on exploration and production of oil and gas properties. APA serves clients worldwide.

Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent international energy company engaged in exploration and production, oil sands mining and integrated gas. The Company's operations are focused in North America, Africa and Europe.

EQT Corporation is an integrated energy company with emphasis on Appalachian area natural-gas supply, transmission and distribution. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offer natural gas products to wholesale and retail customers.

Coterra Energy Inc. operates as a diversified energy company. The Company develops of oil and natural gas with a focus on protecting and preserving air quality, water resources, and the land on which we operate. Coterra Energy serves clients in the United States.

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. is a provider of clean liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Company offers services such as developing, operating, and constructing natural gas liquefaction and regasification facilities, as well as pipelines and LNG terminals. Cheniere Energy Partners serves energy, utilities, and other trading companies worldwide.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. is involved in intrastate crude oil pipeline transportation and terminalling storage activities. The Partnership is also involved in gathering and marketing activities. Plains owns and operates a seasonally heated, common carrier crude oil pipe-line extending from CA to TX, and an oil gathering system in CA.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA US)

Ecopetrol SA is an integrated oil company. The Company owns interests in  oil producing fields in the central area, south, west and north of Colombia as well as refineries, ports for fuel exports and imports on both coasts and the transportation network of pipelines and polyducts throughout the Colombian territory.

Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. is primarily involved in the storage, transportation, and distribution of refined petroleum products and ammonia.  The Company's asset portfolio includes a pipe line system serving the mid-continent region of the United States, petroleum products marine terminal facilities, petroleum products terminals, and an ammonia pipeline system.

Western Midstream Partners, LP (WES) acquires, owns, develops, and operates midstream energy assets. The Company engages in gathering, compressing, treating, processing, and transporting natural gas and crude oil. WES serves customers in the State of Texas.

Range Resources Corporation is an independent oil and gas company  that explore, develops, and acquires oil and gas properties. The Company conducts operations primarily in the Southwestern, Appalachian and Gulf Coast regions of the United States.

PTT Public Company Limited operates as an oil and gas company. The Company produces, transports, and sells natural gas, crude oil, lubricants, aviation and marine, and petrochemical products. PTT offers fleet cards, storage, electronic bill presentment, and other related services. PTT serves customers in Thailand.

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

ENEOS Holdings, Inc. operates refining and marketing businesses. The Company refines and distributes petroleum and petroleum chemical products. ENEOS Holdings also provides non ferrous metals, electronic materials, and other products.

Santos Limited explores for and produces natural gas, crude oil, condensate, naphtha and liquid petroleum gas.  The Company conducts major onshore and offshore petroleum exploration activities at oil and gas fields in Australia (Cooper/Eromanga Basins), the United States (Gulf of Mexico), Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. The Company also transports crude oil by pipeline.

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil. The Company manufactures petroleum, petroleum products, lubricants, liquefied petroleum gas, aromatics like benzene and toluene, and other related products. Bharat has retail outlets throughout the country.

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

Formosa Petrochemical Corp. refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products.  The Company operates refineries and naphtha cracking plants that provide products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, naphtha, ethylene, and liquefied petroleum gas.  FPCC also owns three utility centers and generates electricity.

Repsol S.A., through subsidiaries, explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum, and transports petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company retails gasoline and other products through its chain of gasoline filling stations.  Repsol's petroleum reserves are in Spain, Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East and United States.

Texas Pacific Land Corporation owns tracts of land in Texas, previously the property of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. The Trust issues transferable certificates of proprietary interest pro rata to the holders of certain debt securities of the Texas and Pacific Railway Co. Texas's income is derived from land sales, oil and gas royalties, grazing leases, and interest.

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The increase in production at the Permian Basin would have positive implications for the firm. TPL should realize higher royalty revenue and EPS

BWS Financial Inc

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