Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).</li>
<li>The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. </li>
<li>We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  </li>
</ul>


Like other automotive/industrial semi vendors, Diodes guides 4Q23 sales of 20% q/q and 35% y/y decline (miss by 21%) and weaker gross margin/operating margin of 35%/7% (miss by 5ppts).
The company sees 4Q23 sales decline of 20% mainly from 19% of automotive and 26% of industrial customers due to customer inventory cut coupled with year-end distributor inventory management. 
We expect this adjustment for automotive/industrial IDMs to last for at least 6 months and suggest our clients to avoid these names unless valuation becoming attractive.  


With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. </li>
<li>Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? </li>
<li>Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.</li>
</ul>


Tesla is facing a dilemma whether to aggressively cut price to boost shipment but lose margins or to keep price stable with a more moderated shipment growth like 10-20% y/y. 
Three challenges ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for key competitors? 2. Cybertruck is selling at a loss, more margin downside? 3. Valuation reset for lower sales CAGR? 
Cautious on Tesla as its sales/earnings CAGR is falling below 20% with a rich valuation until we see cost cut on Cybertruck, FSD AI breakthrough, and low price model introduction.


Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. </li>
<li>The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. </li>
<li>In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.</li>
</ul>


The fact that Tesla Korea is losing its market share significantly in Korea portends increased challenges for Tesla Motors on a global basis. 
The number of new Tesla vehicles registered in Korea was 1,303 units in 1Q 2023, down 52% YoY. 
In this insight, we provide three major reasons for Tesla's market share losses in Korea. We also provide Tesla Korea's 2022 results analysis.


Market Share Loss for Tesla Korea Accelerating in 1Q 2023

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  </li>
<li>Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. </li>
<li>What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. </li>
</ul>


Tesla reported a 6% Q4 EPS beat, but stripping out a one-off deferred revenue booking &amp; higher than expected regulatory credits, Q4 results missed by 9%.  
Tesla rose +5.5% post market close after Musk said YTD orders are "2x" output. None of the data we have seen implies such demand, especially weekly China sales. 
What went unnoticed on the earnings call is that Tesla created a $7bn credit facility this month, which should dash all hopes of them doing a share buyback in 2023. 


Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal Thursday as confirmed today via a filing with the SEC to delist its stock. </li>
<li>We don't know if Elon sold more Tesla to cover his cash shortfall. If not, where did he get it? </li>
<li>He also sent Tesla's engineers to assess how to fix Twitter. Like, sharing resources. Establishing synergies. Maybe creating an excuse to direct Tesla to "invest" into Twitter, as I suspected.</li>
</ul>


Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal Thursday as confirmed today via a filing with the SEC to delist its stock. 
We don't know if Elon sold more Tesla to cover his cash shortfall. If not, where did he get it? 
He also sent Tesla's engineers to assess how to fix Twitter. Like, sharing resources. Establishing synergies. Maybe creating an excuse to direct Tesla to "invest" into Twitter, as I suspected.


Elon Has "Freed" Twitter: Send The Ravens

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q

With No Surprise, Diodes Guides Automotive/Industrial Semi Demand to Fall over 20% Q/Q, margin contraction, and rising months of inventory. We see...

Andrew Lu

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Tesla No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Three Touch Challenges Ahead: 1. Collapsing margin vs. rising margin for peers; 2. Cybertruck is selling at...

Andrew Lu

Tesla Q4 Miss Is Big & Sets the Stage for a Drop in 2023 Profits

Tesla sees a 9% earnings miss and warns that raw material headwinds remain in 2023. Recent consensus estimates for 2023 now imply at least a 2%...

SC Capital

Elon Has "Freed" Twitter: Send The Ravens

Elon Musk closed his Twitter deal yesterday as confirmed today via SEC filing to delist its stock. Still no filing that Elon sold Tesla to cover...

Vicki Bryan

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