Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 8 adds and 9 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 22% and will result in a one-way trade of US$490m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 1x ADV.</li>
<li>The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in stocks today and over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Lithium Index. There are 8 adds and 9 deletes with implementation at the close on 31 October.
Estimated one-way turnover is in excess of 22% and will result in a one-way trade of US$490m. There are 11 stocks with estimated passive flows greater than 1x ADV.
The index is not very widely tracked and there could be big moves in stocks today and over the next few days - especially where there is multiple days ADV.


Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>New owner Elon Musk is blowing up Twitter in record time by driving away revenue, gutting headcount to levels unable to sustain the platform, and accelerating its legal jeopardy. </li>
<li>With Twitter now hurling toward bankruptcy, it's also running out of cash as well as places to get it.</li>
<li>Too bad Elon also has already has caused hundreds of millions in losses for Twitter's beleaguered bankers and his fellow equity buyers who he caused to "obviously" overpay. </li>
</ul>


New owner Elon Musk is blowing up Twitter in record time by driving away revenue, gutting headcount to levels unable to sustain the platform, and accelerating its legal jeopardy. 
With Twitter now hurling toward bankruptcy, it's also running out of cash as well as places to get it.
Too bad Elon also has already has caused hundreds of millions in losses for Twitter's beleaguered bankers and his fellow equity buyers who he caused to "obviously" overpay. 


<ul>
<li>Tesla's Q3 10-Q reveals CFO Zach Kirkhorn was suddenly out because he was fired.</li>
<li>The company also made Kirkhorn reveal any whistleblower efforts he pursued—and then declare Tesla broke no laws. Tesla threatened "legal action" if he talks to the press. </li>
<li>Is Tesla setting up its ex-CFO to take a fall?</li>
</ul>


Tesla's Q3 10-Q reveals CFO Zach Kirkhorn was suddenly out because he was fired.
The company also made Kirkhorn reveal any whistleblower efforts he pursued—and then declare Tesla broke no laws. Tesla threatened "legal action" if he talks to the press. 
Is Tesla setting up its ex-CFO to take a fall?


What Really Happened to Tesla's Latest Ex-CFO?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.</li>
<li>TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.</li>
<li>Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reported 3Q23 results yesterday -- Gross margin beat expectations and remains near historical highs.
TSMC maintains expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. Gross margin guided to remain near all-time highs.
Accumulate TSMC as a Structural Long position -- Undemanding multiple can drive Target Price NT$760 for ~40% Upside.


TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$980m Trade

There are 8 adds/9 deletes for the Solactive Global Lithium Index resulting in an estimated one-way turnover of 22% and in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Elon Is "Saving" Twitter To Death

I warned last year Elon Musk would siphon cash & resources from his other companies, especially Tesla, to fund his failing Twitter operation—likely...

Vicki Bryan

What Really Happened to Tesla's Latest Ex-CFO?

Tesla's Q3 10-Q reveals CFO Zach Kirkhorn was fired. It also made Kirkhorn reveal any whistleblower efforts, threatened him if he talks—then...

Vicki Bryan

TSMC Results Highlight PC, Smartphone, Auto Turn-Arounds; Undemanding Valuation Can Drive 40% Upside

TSMC maintained its expectation of a 15-20% earnings CAGR through 2026E. It also reiterated its view that it can maintain its gross margin near all...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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