Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> stock is has been in free fall for days now, in part because investors were alarmed at the report Monday night by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) that its October monthly sales in China were much lower than expected.Apparently folks haven’t been paying attention because, as I long have warned clients, Tesla has been losing ground in China for most of the past year—longer than that for MIC Model 3.

Tesla Motors (TSLA US) stock is has been in free fall for days now, in part because investors were alarmed at the report Monday night by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) that its October monthly sales in China were much lower than expected.Apparently folks haven’t been paying attention because, as I long have warned clients, Tesla has been losing ground in China for most of the past year—longer than that for MIC Model 3.

Tesla Model 3 Sales Crashed in China in October

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

China's resilient export performance in October was a pleasant surprise amid a confluence of bad news on the domestic front. But export strength may be dwindling and progressively tougher comps are not the only factor to blame.
A record trade surplus. Overseas shipments once again topped estimates in October, driving the country's monthly trade surplus to USD84.5bn, the highest on record. The 27.1% growth in exports was propelled by robust global trade activity. China has also been getting a greater share of export orders thanks to still sluggish outputs from competing nations that have yet to return to full capacity. Early Christmas orders to beat shipment delays provided an extra boost (Exhibit 1).
However, price inflation has become the dominant driver, while unit growth has tailed off. Average export prices began to tick up in July and jumped over 10% y/y in September. Overseas buyers will be feeling the pinch of China's surging factory gate prices this Christmas. But more importantly, rising unit prices may suggest that we are now much farther along in the reopening trade in China's key export markets. Demand has shifted considerably from essential to discretionary items. That story may run out of steam soon.
Europe presents additional uncertainties in the coming months, as a spike in infections threatens to throttle its recovery. The EU was pivotal to China's export strength last month, buffering the deceleration in US orders. It remains to be seen whether a wider outbreak on the continent will be a hit to export demand or a catalyst for resurgent sales of household / electronics merchandise. What's more certain is the eventual rebound of Southeast Asia, which will chip away at orders for Chinese exports, especially if power shortages escalate in the winter months.
Price effects will likely continue to drive exports in machinery, electronics and home appliances as we approach the holiday season. That is bad news for international consumers. The average household appliance unit shipped in September had an invoice price of USD26, up almost 55% from January 2020. On a lighter note, auto exports have been a bright spot all year despite supply chain disruptions, fueled by sales of new energy vehicles. And China has Elon Musk to thank for it. 
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 100%;">Exhibit 1: China's Export / Import Growth and Trade Balance</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 100%;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/449/original/image_225136958701636405007254.png?1636405007" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240449"></figure>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 100%;">Sources: General Administration of Customs, Our analysis </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

China's resilient export performance in October was a pleasant surprise amid a confluence of bad news on the domestic front. But export strength may be dwindling and progressively tougher comps are not the only factor to blame.
A record trade surplus. Overseas shipments once again topped estimates in October, driving the country's monthly trade surplus to USD84.5bn, the highest on record. The 27.1% growth in exports was propelled by robust global trade activity. China has also been getting a greater share of export orders thanks to still sluggish outputs from competing nations that have yet to return to full capacity. Early Christmas orders to beat shipment delays provided an extra boost (Exhibit 1).
However, price inflation has become the dominant driver, while unit growth has tailed off. Average export prices began to tick up in July and jumped over 10% y/y in September. Overseas buyers will be feeling the pinch of China's surging factory gate prices this Christmas. But more importantly, rising unit prices may suggest that we are now much farther along in the reopening trade in China's key export markets. Demand has shifted considerably from essential to discretionary items. That story may run out of steam soon.
Europe presents additional uncertainties in the coming months, as a spike in infections threatens to throttle its recovery. The EU was pivotal to China's export strength last month, buffering the deceleration in US orders. It remains to be seen whether a wider outbreak on the continent will be a hit to export demand or a catalyst for resurgent sales of household / electronics merchandise. What's more certain is the eventual rebound of Southeast Asia, which will chip away at orders for Chinese exports, especially if power shortages escalate in the winter months.
Price effects will likely continue to drive exports in machinery, electronics and home appliances as we approach the holiday season. That is bad news for international consumers. The average household appliance unit shipped in September had an invoice price of USD26, up almost 55% from January 2020. On a lighter note, auto exports have been a bright spot all year despite supply chain disruptions, fueled by sales of new energy vehicles. And China has Elon Musk to thank for it. 



Exhibit 1: China's Export / Import Growth and Trade Balance







Sources: General Administration of Customs, Our analysis 




China Macro: Surging Export Prices and An Incredibly Expensive X'mas

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In a recently published report (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cop26-u-n-climate-conference-to-address-mitigation-financing-and-carbon-pricing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59779" rel="noopener">COP26: U.N. Climate Conference to Address Mitigation, Financing, and Carbon Pricing</a>) I mentioned how the COP26 international climate conference (31 October to 12 November) will have far-reaching implications for global capital markets and investing.That Insight was largely about the COP26 conference itself – background, objectives, three critical agenda items with trillions of dollars at stake, and that will influence global financial markets from today (headlines coming out of the conference) through the end of this century.That report was necessary context for this Insight and others that will follow; successively deeper dives into country-specific climate action plans, and investment themes and trading ideas around the COP26 conference and climate change in general. This is the first of those follow-up reports.Herein, I present a brief overview of investment themes and angles directly linked to the three key COP26 agenda items: 1) mitigation of global warming, 2) climate finance, and 3) the development of international carbon markets and pricing mechanisms. Themes and subthemes such as:<ul>
<li>
Climate Transition: "Green" utilities, renewable energy, cleantech, electric vehicles and other areas of smart mobility, green buildings, and related. The "buy solar, sell coal" kinds of stuff.</li>
<li>
Climate Financing: Financial sector stocks poised to benefit from climate change mitigation, reduced risk from portfolio debarbonisation, and new inflows into sustainable/ESG funds.</li>
<li>
Carbon Markets: Pure-play (or close thereto) carbon capture and storage/sequestration (CCS) stocks, plus a few financial sector overlaps (e.g., related to carbon markets, futures, etc.)</li>
</ul>

In a recently published report (COP26: U.N. Climate Conference to Address Mitigation, Financing, and Carbon Pricing) I mentioned how the COP26 international climate conference (31 October to 12 November) will have far-reaching implications for global capital markets and investing.That Insight was largely about the COP26 conference itself – background, objectives, three critical agenda items with trillions of dollars at stake, and that will influence global financial markets from today (headlines coming out of the conference) through the end of this century.That report was necessary context for this Insight and others that will follow; successively deeper dives into country-specific climate action plans, and investment themes and trading ideas around the COP26 conference and climate change in general. This is the first of those follow-up reports.Herein, I present a brief overview of investment themes and angles directly linked to the three key COP26 agenda items: 1) mitigation of global warming, 2) climate finance, and 3) the development of international carbon markets and pricing mechanisms. Themes and subthemes such as:

Climate Transition: "Green" utilities, renewable energy, cleantech, electric vehicles and other areas of smart mobility, green buildings, and related. The "buy solar, sell coal" kinds of stuff.

Climate Financing: Financial sector stocks poised to benefit from climate change mitigation, reduced risk from portfolio debarbonisation, and new inflows into sustainable/ESG funds.

Carbon Markets: Pure-play (or close thereto) carbon capture and storage/sequestration (CCS) stocks, plus a few financial sector overlaps (e.g., related to carbon markets, futures, etc.)


COP26: An Overview of Investment Themes and Catalysts Related to COP26 Conference

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Headline Development</h2>Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go to Uber (UBER) drivers.  On top of this, Hertz will also invest significantly in EV charging infrastructure across its global operations.

Headline DevelopmentHertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go to Uber (UBER) drivers.  On top of this, Hertz will also invest significantly in EV charging infrastructure across its global operations.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Tesla has been one of the hottest stocks this week after the major announcement from Hertz of ordering 100,000 Teslas by the end of 2022.</li><li>The company’s recent financial performance has also been strong with a 57% top-line growth and a 73% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries.</li><li>We are optimistic about Tesla and give it an ‘Outperform’ rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Tesla has been one of the hottest stocks this week after the major announcement from Hertz of ordering 100,000 Teslas by the end of 2022.The company’s recent financial performance has also been strong with a 57% top-line growth and a 73% year-over-year increase in vehicle deliveries.We are optimistic about Tesla and give it an ‘Outperform’ rating with a revised target price.

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Tesla Model 3 Sales Crashed in China in October

Tesla stock is has been in free fall for days now, in part because investors were alarmed that October monthly sales in China were weaker than...

Vicki Bryan

China Macro: Surging Export Prices and An Incredibly Expensive X'mas

China's resilient export performance last month was a pleasant surprise amid a confluence of bad news at home. But export strength may be dwindling...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #55

Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go...

Granite Bay Capital

Tesla Inc - Investment Thesis

Tesla has been one of the hottest stocks this week after the major announcement from Hertz of ordering 100,000 Teslas by the end of 2022. The...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tesla Model 3 Sales Crashed in China in October

Tesla stock is has been in free fall for days now, in part because investors were alarmed that October monthly sales in China were weaker than...

Vicki Bryan

China Macro: Surging Export Prices and An Incredibly Expensive X'mas

China's resilient export performance last month was a pleasant surprise amid a confluence of bad news at home. But export strength may be dwindling...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

COP26: An Overview of Investment Themes and Catalysts Related to COP26 Conference

COP26, the climate conference happening now, will impact global capital markets. Perhaps over the next two weeks, depending on headlines, but...

Kyle Rudden

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #55

Hertz (HTZZ) just made the largest EV purchase ever, acquiring 100k Teslas (TLSA) for a reported $4.2b - half of which will go...

Granite Bay Capital

Tesla Inc - Investment Thesis

Tesla has been one of the hottest stocks this week after the major announcement from Hertz of ordering 100,000 Teslas by the end of 2022. The...

Baptista Research