Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Summary</h2><ul>
<li>
Tesla announced a miss on production challenges: Tesla delivered a miss with approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4 due to short-term production challenges starting at the end of October and lasting through early December from the transition to new Autopilot hardware.</li>
<li>
Missing delivery by 12%: Tesla earlier guided 4Q delivery of 25.18k vehicles and 50k in 2H16 but delivered 22.2k vehicles in 4Q16 and 47.02k in 2H16, missing by 12% in 4Q16 due to changing vendors from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22927" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22927:1">Mobileye</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5891" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1">Nvidia</a>'s PX2…</li>
</ul>

Summary

Tesla announced a miss on production challenges: Tesla delivered a miss with approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4 due to short-term production challenges starting at the end of October and lasting through early December from the transition to new Autopilot hardware.

Missing delivery by 12%: Tesla earlier guided 4Q delivery of 25.18k vehicles and 50k in 2H16 but delivered 22.2k vehicles in 4Q16 and 47.02k in 2H16, missing by 12% in 4Q16 due to changing vendors from Mobileye to Nvidia's PX2…


Risks to Suppy Chain and Consensus Estimates Due to Tesla's Miss

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The use of intermarket analysis is a practical method of assessing the future inflection points in the economy and the stock market.  Intermarket analysis is intuitive and logical. For example, we take two widely followed consumer ETFs, including XLY (discretionary) and XLP (staples). We use the US ETFs since they are the most liquid and have the deepest…

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The use of intermarket analysis is a practical method of assessing the future inflection points in the economy and the stock market.  Intermarket analysis is intuitive and logical. For example, we take two widely followed consumer ETFs, including XLY (discretionary) and XLP (staples). We use the US ETFs since they are the most liquid and have the deepest…

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Yet another year, yet another decent miss on deliveries for Tesla.  This in spite of a lot of reported discounting activity for Q4 2016 on its cars. This is a fork to my previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/will-tesla-resume-discounting-for-q4-2016-or-miss" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7454">Will Tesla Resume Discounting for Q4 2016 or Miss ?</a> The answer to this question is, that it looks like they just did both.To summarize, at the start of the year Tesla promised to deliver 85,000-90,000 cars for 2017.  By the end of Q3 2016, the number was down to 80,000. After market, Tesla have come in with an…

Yet another year, yet another decent miss on deliveries for Tesla.  This in spite of a lot of reported discounting activity for Q4 2016 on its cars. This is a fork to my previous insight Will Tesla Resume Discounting for Q4 2016 or Miss ? The answer to this question is, that it looks like they just did both.To summarize, at the start of the year Tesla promised to deliver 85,000-90,000 cars for 2017.  By the end of Q3 2016, the number was down to 80,000. After market, Tesla have come in with an…

Tesla Miss Delivery Guidance by 10% for Q4 2016, Blame Production Again?

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

<ul>
<li>GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.</li>
<li>The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.</li>
<li>The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.</li>
<li>Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.</li>
<li>This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.</li>
<li>Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.</li>
<li>
Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…</li>
</ul>


GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models.
The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for a 1-10% penalty.
The fine is small at 1.3% of profits and levied by the Shanghai government.
Shanghai Auto (SAIC) is the JV partner for GM in China.
This probe began in 2014 though investigations began in 2011 upon receiving auto dealer complaints.
Price fixing is a practice common by foreign automakers in China.

Audi and Chrysler were fined for price fixing…


Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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<ul>
<li>
Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.</li>
<li>
Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.</li>
<li>
China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.</li>
</ul>The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…



Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia.

Mexico: Fitch downgrades outlook to ‘negative; on concerns about growth and challenges to public finances.

China: CPI of 2.3% was higher than expected but still below 3% target.
The US Fed outlook for three rate hikes in 2017 is based on flawed assumptions.  They are expecting that the US economy in 2017 is similar to the back half of 2016.  We believe this is a flawed assumption as…

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

Risks to Suppy Chain and Consensus Estimates Due to Tesla's Miss

Summary Tesla announced a miss on production challenges: Tesla delivered a miss with approximately 22,200 vehicles in Q4 due to short-term...

Andrew Lu

Intermarket Analysis (1): XLY Versus XLP

In this report, we use intermarket analysis to analyze XLY (Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF) vs. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR ETF). The...

Douglas Kim

Tesla Miss Delivery Guidance by 10% for Q4 2016, Blame Production Again?

Yet another year, yet another decent miss on deliveries for Tesla. This in spite of a lot of reported discounting activity for Q4 2016 on its...

Sameer Taneja

GM Fined for Price Fixing in China

GM and Shanghai Auto fined Rmb201mn for fixing prices on certain car models. The fine was set at 4% of the models in question, the law allows for...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

US Fed 2017 Rate Hike Outlook Based on Flawed Assumptions

Russia: Trump presidency, likely lifting of western sanctions and a stabilizing economy boost prospects for Russia. Mexico: Fitch downgrades...

David Riedel

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