Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The percentage of funds invested in Diageo and the average weight in UK portfolios have been on a downward trajectory since reaching a peak in late 2021.</li>
<li>Rotation within the Consumer Staples sector sees BATS and Reckitt's joining Diageo, whilst Tesco, Britvic and Cranswisk make sustained gains.</li>
<li>Significant exits from Axa Framlington, abrdn, and PrivilEdge have reduced average fund exposure to its lowest point since 2017</li>
</ul>


The percentage of funds invested in Diageo and the average weight in UK portfolios have been on a downward trajectory since reaching a peak in late 2021.
Rotation within the Consumer Staples sector sees BATS and Reckitt's joining Diageo, whilst Tesco, Britvic and Cranswisk make sustained gains.
Significant exits from Axa Framlington, abrdn, and PrivilEdge have reduced average fund exposure to its lowest point since 2017


Diageo PLC: Slide Continues as UK Funds Cut Stakes

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a> is a merger upon a merger combining the Makro wholesale business and the Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses, along with a hybrid mall operation. </li>
<li>The combined entity continues to realise operational synergies in sourcing and logistics, with a strong B2B element. Omnichannel makes up more than 16% of sales and is growing rapidly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a> provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be realised. Valuations look attractive relative to growth.  </li>
</ul>



CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) is a merger upon a merger combining the Makro wholesale business and the Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses, along with a hybrid mall operation. 
The combined entity continues to realise operational synergies in sourcing and logistics, with a strong B2B element. Omnichannel makes up more than 16% of sales and is growing rapidly.

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent CP ALL (CPALL TB) with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be realised. Valuations look attractive relative to growth.  


United Kingdom

Tesco plc is a food retailer.  The Group operates stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, China, Thailand, and the United States.

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Tesco PLC (TSCO LN)

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Diageo PLC: Slide Continues as UK Funds Cut Stakes

UK fund managers are continuing to reduce their positions in Diageo. The percentage of funds invested in Diageo and the average weight in UK...

Steven Holden

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) - Symbiotic Alliance

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent CP ALL (CPALL TB) with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be...

Angus Mackintosh

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