Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tencent announced 3Q22 results on 16 Nov. Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.</li><li>9M22 revenue was down by 1.5% YoY. Quarterly Non-IFRS net income grew 1.6% YoY after the decline for 4 consecutive quarters, and reached RMB32.3bn in 3Q22, beating consensus estimate by 7%.</li><li>The earning beat was mostly helped by effective control in S&amp;M expenses (-32% YoY) &amp; staff costs (low single-digit YoY growth excl. one-off severance costs).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent announced 3Q22 results on 16 Nov. Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.9M22 revenue was down by 1.5% YoY. Quarterly Non-IFRS net income grew 1.6% YoY after the decline for 4 consecutive quarters, and reached RMB32.3bn in 3Q22, beating consensus estimate by 7%.The earning beat was mostly helped by effective control in S&amp;M expenses (-32% YoY) &amp; staff costs (low single-digit YoY growth excl. one-off severance costs).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent  (700 HK) – Return to earnings growth track

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market</li><li>Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20</li><li>Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation</li></ul>

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest marketXi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China IaaS + PaaS market grew 30.7% YoY in 1H22, according to IDC data.</li><li>However, this may have slowed to 10-20% YoY in 3Q22, reflected by China Telecom/ China Mobile sluggish cloud revenue growth. </li><li>China cloud spending in 2023E could remain conservative with structural changes</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China IaaS + PaaS market grew 30.7% YoY in 1H22, according to IDC data.However, this may have slowed to 10-20% YoY in 3Q22, reflected by China Telecom/ China Mobile sluggish cloud revenue growth. China cloud spending in 2023E could remain conservative with structural changesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Software & IT Services – China IaaS + PaaS growth slowed further in 3Q22

<ul><li>For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.</li><li>Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.</li><li>Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and margin expansion.Social entertainment platforms need to innovate their monetization methods and enhance operating efficiency in order to fend off competition and macro headwind, in our view.Platforms with concentrated revenue exposure to ad business like Weibo and loss-making platforms like BiliBili (Bili) might be more sensitive to the competition and macro environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Tencent (700 HK) – Return to earnings growth track

Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.

CMB International

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market. Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20.

Caixin Global

China Software & IT Services – China IaaS + PaaS growth slowed further in 3Q22

China IaaS + PaaS market grew 30.7% YoY in 1H22, according to IDC data. However, this may have slowed to 10-20% YoY in 3Q22, reflected by China...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Tencent (700 HK) – Return to earnings growth track

Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.

CMB International

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market. Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20.

Caixin Global

China Software & IT Services – China IaaS + PaaS growth slowed further in 3Q22

China IaaS + PaaS market grew 30.7% YoY in 1H22, according to IDC data. However, this may have slowed to 10-20% YoY in 3Q22, reflected by China...

CMB International

China Internet– Social Entertainment 3Q22 Preview: Remains Under Pressure

For 3Q22E, social entertainment platforms still face intensifying competition and macro challenges that can weigh on their revenue growth and...

CMB International