Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income (2.4%), 8.9% and 17% versus our estimates. The bottom-line beat was mainly due to the growth of high-margin businesses;  </li>
<li>We view commercialization of Video Accounts and expansion of overseas gaming are still at early stage.</li>
<li>Progression of these high-margin, high-quality business will persist into 2024;  We maintain BUY but raise target price to HK$ 432. </li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C3Q23 revenue, non-IFRS operating profit and IFRS net income (2.4%), 8.9% and 17% versus our estimates. The bottom-line beat was mainly due to the growth of high-margin businesses;  
We view commercialization of Video Accounts and expansion of overseas gaming are still at early stage.
Progression of these high-margin, high-quality business will persist into 2024;  We maintain BUY but raise target price to HK$ 432. 


[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.</li>
<li>Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.</li>
<li>Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) ’s 3Q2023 revenues fell marginally below consensus, however, OP beat consensus estimates. Domestic games returned to growth after a flat quarter in 2Q2023.
Both Online Advertising and Fintech businesses have seen strong increase in top line with GPM approaching new highs for the two businesses.
Though Tencent’s earnings show a recovery, we would remain cautious given the slowdown in Chinese economy and Tencent failing to make into new game approval list since July 2023.


Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.</li>
<li>The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.</li>
</ul>


Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant.
The gross margins of all business lines improved and admin expense as percentage of total revenue decreased.
We believe the stock has an upside of 30% for the year end of 2024.


Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.</li>
<li>Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.
Tencent and three ETFs see the top net buys as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$18.4bn this past week. Energy and Telco net sales persist. And persist. And persist.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.</li>
<li>Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI post market close.</li>
<li>Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.</li>
</ul>


Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.
Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI post market close.
Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant. The gross margins of all business lines...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

In last week's SOUTHBOUND flows, high dividend SOEs such as China Mobile and CNOOC again saw net selling while Tencent and three major listed ETFs...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Tencent(700 HK, BUY, TP HK$432)Target Price Change]: More Sustained Growth Doesn’t Mean Slow Growth

​Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tencent: Domestic Gaming Returns to Growth

​Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent (700 HK): Raise Margin Estimates After 3Q23 Results, 30% Upside, Buy

Advertising, international game, and Fintech grew by two digits, but domestic entertainments were stagnant. The gross margins of all business lines...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 10 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs AGAIN See Outflows, Tencent and ETFs Big Buys

In last week's SOUTHBOUND flows, high dividend SOEs such as China Mobile and CNOOC again saw net selling while Tencent and three major listed ETFs...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Tencent beats revenue and profit estimates, driven by high-margin businesses. Video Accounts and overseas gaming expansion still in early stages....

Tencent's domestic games returned to growth in 3Q2023 after a flat 2Q, social networks remained flat. Key highlight of the quarter was strong...