Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.</li>
<li>This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes. </li>
<li>Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.
This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes. 
Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September. 


Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C2Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, in-line, 10% vs. our estimates and in-line, in-line, 19% vs. consensus;</li>
<li>Weak fintech revenue, due to weak consumption, dragged down overall growth. But we see structural revenue acceleration and margin leverages in advertising, game and AI;</li>
<li>We raise TP to HK$485 and keep Tencent as our TOP PICK.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C2Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, in-line, 10% vs. our estimates and in-line, in-line, 19% vs. consensus;
Weak fintech revenue, due to weak consumption, dragged down overall growth. But we see structural revenue acceleration and margin leverages in advertising, game and AI;
We raise TP to HK$485 and keep Tencent as our TOP PICK.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$485) TP Change]: Revenue Acceleration and Margin Leverages to Come

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$16.6bn this week (now 28wks in a row of net buying), on VERY LOW two-way volumes. </li>
<li>Gross volumes were very low. Net volumes were decent. There were three ETFs in the top 5 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week suggesting position unwinding.</li>
<li>Top net buys other than the ETFs were China Mobile and Tencent (now 14 out of 15 days seeing net SOUTHBOUND buying)</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$16.6bn this week (now 28wks in a row of net buying), on VERY LOW two-way volumes. 
Gross volumes were very low. Net volumes were decent. There were three ETFs in the top 5 SOUTHBOUND net buys this past week suggesting position unwinding.
Top net buys other than the ETFs were China Mobile and Tencent (now 14 out of 15 days seeing net SOUTHBOUND buying)


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024); Big Net Buying On "Tiny" Overall Volume, ETFs Big

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Tencent reported 2Q24 results on 14 Aug: total revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB161.1bn, in line with our/consensus estimate of RMB160.9/161.4bn; nonIFRS operating profit grew by 27% YoY to RMB58.4bn, largely in line with our estimate of RMB57.7bn; non-IFRS net income increased by 53% YoY to RMB57.3bn and was 17/18% ahead of our/consensus estimate, mainly due to the increase in share of profit of associates (+RMB6.6bn YoY).</li><li>Underpinned by strong growth in game gross receipt, we are upbeat on the revenue growth acceleration and earnings growth in 2H24.</li><li>E-commerce ecosystem development will support consumer internet revenue growth in mid-to-long term, while FBS revenue should bounce back as economic momentum recovers. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tencent reported 2Q24 results on 14 Aug: total revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB161.1bn, in line with our/consensus estimate of RMB160.9/161.4bn; nonIFRS operating profit grew by 27% YoY to RMB58.4bn, largely in line with our estimate of RMB57.7bn; non-IFRS net income increased by 53% YoY to RMB57.3bn and was 17/18% ahead of our/consensus estimate, mainly due to the increase in share of profit of associates (+RMB6.6bn YoY).Underpinned by strong growth in game gross receipt, we are upbeat on the revenue growth acceleration and earnings growth in 2H24.E-commerce ecosystem development will support consumer internet revenue growth in mid-to-long term, while FBS revenue should bounce back as economic momentum recovers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - Inline 2Q24 Results; Games Business to Drive Revenue Growth Acceleration in 2H24E

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> reported 2Q2024 results today which beat consensus. Domestic gaming resumed growth driven by the successful launch of DnF Mobile which continues to dominate charts in China.</li>
<li>All three business segments saw improvement in margins driven by Tencent's high-margin businesses incl. mini-programs, video accounts, short-videos, etc.</li>
<li>We expect continued recovery in Tencent’s earnings, however, remain cautious given slowdown in consumption spending and macroeconomic uncertainties.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q2024 results today which beat consensus. Domestic gaming resumed growth driven by the successful launch of DnF Mobile which continues to dominate charts in China.
All three business segments saw improvement in margins driven by Tencent's high-margin businesses incl. mini-programs, video accounts, short-videos, etc.
We expect continued recovery in Tencent’s earnings, however, remain cautious given slowdown in consumption spending and macroeconomic uncertainties.


Tencent 2Q: Recent Launch of DnF Mobile Helps Domestic Gaming Return to Growth

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

The HSI committee promised changes to rebalance towards better sector representation and a move to 100 names. That was a couple years ago. Progress...

Travis Lundy

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$485) TP Change]: Revenue Acceleration and Margin Leverages to Come

Tencent's Q2 revenue and profit met expectations, with weak fintech revenue offset by growth in advertising, gaming, and AI. Analysts raise target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024); Big Net Buying On "Tiny" Overall Volume, ETFs Big

SOUTHBOUND volumes this past week were very low overall, but there was decent net buying aided by BIG buying of ETFs and large caps and very little...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - Inline 2Q24 Results; Games Business to Drive Revenue Growth Acceleration in 2H24E

Tencent reported 2Q24 results on 14 Aug: total revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB161.1bn, in line with our/consensus estimate of RMB160.9/161.4bn

CMB International

Tencent 2Q: Recent Launch of DnF Mobile Helps Domestic Gaming Return to Growth

Tencent's 2Q2024 results beats consensus, driven by growth in domestic gaming and high-margin businesses. Domestic gaming resumed growth driven by...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

The HSI committee promised changes to rebalance towards better sector representation and a move to 100 names. That was a couple years ago. Progress...

Travis Lundy

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$485) TP Change]: Revenue Acceleration and Margin Leverages to Come

​Tencent's Q2 revenue and profit met expectations, with weak fintech revenue offset by growth in advertising, gaming, and AI. Analysts raise target...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 Aug 2024); Big Net Buying On "Tiny" Overall Volume, ETFs Big

SOUTHBOUND volumes this past week were very low overall, but there was decent net buying aided by BIG buying of ETFs and large caps and very little...

Travis Lundy

Tencent (700 HK) - Inline 2Q24 Results; Games Business to Drive Revenue Growth Acceleration in 2H24E

Tencent reported 2Q24 results on 14 Aug: total revenue grew by 8% YoY to RMB161.1bn, in line with our/consensus estimate of RMB160.9/161.4bn

CMB International

Tencent 2Q: Recent Launch of DnF Mobile Helps Domestic Gaming Return to Growth

​Tencent's 2Q2024 results beats consensus, driven by growth in domestic gaming and high-margin businesses. Domestic gaming resumed growth driven by...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent's Q2 revenue and profit met expectations, with weak fintech revenue offset by growth in advertising, gaming, and AI. Analysts raise target...

Tencent's 2Q2024 results beats consensus, driven by growth in domestic gaming and high-margin businesses. Domestic gaming resumed growth driven by...