Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)</li>
<li>We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."</li>
<li>Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.</li>
</ul>


The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&amp;P 500, Japan's TOPIX, and Europe's EURO STOXX 50 to "roll over near current or marginally higher levels."
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.


Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In a notice to exchange, Pakistan Telecommunication Company - PTC (Market Cap of Rs49bn &amp; US$173mn) informed that its has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) with the shareholders of Telenor Pakistan for the acquisition of 100% shares at an Enterprise Value of Rs108bn (US$380mn) on a cash &amp; debt free basis.</li><li>The deal is subject to regulatory approvals &amp; other customary conditions and is expected to be complete in 2024.</li><li>PTC also informed that the transaction will be financed by external debt. We believe due to shortage of FX reserves in Pakistan, the debt raised by PTC will directly transferred to the current shareholders of Telenor Pakistan.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In a notice to exchange, Pakistan Telecommunication Company - PTC (Market Cap of Rs49bn &amp; US$173mn) informed that its has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (SPA) with the shareholders of Telenor Pakistan for the acquisition of 100% shares at an Enterprise Value of Rs108bn (US$380mn) on a cash &amp; debt free basis.The deal is subject to regulatory approvals &amp; other customary conditions and is expected to be complete in 2024.PTC also informed that the transaction will be financed by external debt. We believe due to shortage of FX reserves in Pakistan, the debt raised by PTC will directly transferred to the current shareholders of Telenor Pakistan.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Telecommunication: One of the Biggest Acquisition Deals in Pakistan

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

<ul><li>Comba Telecom Systems (Comba) has a global customer base including major telecommunication operators such as Vodafone, Ooredoo, Airtel, Telenor, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, and other major telecommunication equipment providers.</li><li>The company owns over 5,500 patents globally, and offers a comprehensive suite of innovative products and services including base station antennas, network products and wireless transmission services.</li><li>In China, the demand for 5G base station antennas is driven by the deployment of 5G medium-frequency network and stable demand from the 3 largest telecommunication operators in China.</li></ul>

Comba Telecom Systems (Comba) has a global customer base including major telecommunication operators such as Vodafone, Ooredoo, Airtel, Telenor, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, and other major telecommunication equipment providers.The company owns over 5,500 patents globally, and offers a comprehensive suite of innovative products and services including base station antennas, network products and wireless transmission services.In China, the demand for 5G base station antennas is driven by the deployment of 5G medium-frequency network and stable demand from the 3 largest telecommunication operators in China.

Comba Telecom – Global solutions & service provider of wireless and information communications systems – Lists on SGX

Norway

Telenor ASA is an international provider of tele, data and media communication services, and has mobile operations in 13 markets across the Nordic region, Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. The Group also offers fixed telephony, broadband and TV services in the Nordic region.

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Telenor ASA (TEL NO)

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Telecommunication: One of the Biggest Acquisition Deals in Pakistan

In a notice to exchange, Pakistan Telecommunication Company - PTC (Market Cap of Rs49bn & US$173mn) informed that its has entered into a Share...

Topline Securities

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

Comba Telecom – Global solutions & service provider of wireless and information communications systems – Lists on SGX

Comba Telecom Systems (Comba) has a global customer base including major telecommunication operators such as Vodafone, Ooredoo, Airtel, Telenor,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking Below 1.5-Year Support, Yet Another Recessionary Signal; Bearish Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside;...

Vermilion Research

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Telecommunication: One of the Biggest Acquisition Deals in Pakistan

In a notice to exchange, Pakistan Telecommunication Company - PTC (Market Cap of Rs49bn & US$173mn) informed that its has entered into a Share...

Topline Securities

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

Comba Telecom – Global solutions & service provider of wireless and information communications systems – Lists on SGX

Comba Telecom Systems (Comba) has a global customer base including major telecommunication operators such as Vodafone, Ooredoo, Airtel, Telenor,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....