European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).
Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.</li>
<li>Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.
Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report

Italy

Telecom Italia S.p.A., through subsidiaries, offers fixed line and mobile telephone and data transmission services in Italy and abroad.  The Company offers local and long-distance telephone, satellite communications, Internet access, and teleconferencing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Telecom Italia SPA (TIT IM)

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report

Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

​European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report

Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...