Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Peloton Interactive  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>In our earlier report, we covered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peloton-interactive-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28014:1" rel="noopener">Peloton Interactive (PTON US)</a>’s background, its business model, the growth prospects and risks it faces in the market. We concluded that the company is in the early stages of growth, but its current business model does not appear sustainable or capable of continued double-digit growth levels. Peloton announced last Tuesday that it aims to raise around USD1.16bn or more, offering 40 million Class A shares between a low-end price of USD26 and a high-end price of USD29 each. This insight covers the financial performance of the company and its valuation. Our views are:</p>
<ul>
<li>Although we have provided a financial outlook and valuation, we note that the financial figures may not be relied upon due to the company’s internal control deficiencies.</li>
<li>Revenue has shown significant growth over the last three years, but whether growth will continue over the mid to long term continues to be a concern.</li>
<li>Revenue was looked at in two possible scenarios, based on Peloton’s ability to secure demand for its bikes and keep users engaged with its app. We see that even in the best-case scenario the company would still seem expensive on EV/sales trading significantly above its appropriate peers.</li>
<li>Peloton’s path to profitability is unclear even in a best-case scenario for revenue, raising the question of whether a premium is justifiable for a loss-making firm with doubts on demand continuity.</li>
<li>We would not subscribe to this expensive issue, as the investment also requires a high tolerance for risk and volatility</li>
</ul>

In our earlier report, we covered Peloton Interactive (PTON US)’s background, its business model, the growth prospects and risks it faces in the market. We concluded that the company is in the early stages of growth, but its current business model does not appear sustainable or capable of continued double-digit growth levels. Peloton announced last Tuesday that it aims to raise around USD1.16bn or more, offering 40 million Class A shares between a low-end price of USD26 and a high-end price of USD29 each. This insight covers the financial performance of the company and its valuation. Our views are:

Although we have provided a financial outlook and valuation, we note that the financial figures may not be relied upon due to the company’s internal control deficiencies.
Revenue has shown significant growth over the last three years, but whether growth will continue over the mid to long term continues to be a concern.
Revenue was looked at in two possible scenarios, based on Peloton’s ability to secure demand for its bikes and keep users engaged with its app. We see that even in the best-case scenario the company would still seem expensive on EV/sales trading significantly above its appropriate peers.
Peloton’s path to profitability is unclear even in a best-case scenario for revenue, raising the question of whether a premium is justifiable for a loss-making firm with doubts on demand continuity.
We would not subscribe to this expensive issue, as the investment also requires a high tolerance for risk and volatility


Peloton IPO (Part 2): Pedalling Furiously to Go Nowhere

Italy

Technogym S.p.A. designs, manufactures, and sells fitness equipment. The Company offers cardiovascular and padding products, exercise balls, weights and weights racks, multi-functional machines, aerobic, and sports equipment. Technogym distributes products worldwide.

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Technogym SpA (TGYM IM)

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

Peloton IPO (Part 2): Pedalling Furiously to Go Nowhere

In our earlier report, we covered Peloton Interactive (PTON US)’s background, its business model, the growth prospects and risks it faces in the...

Aqila Ali

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