Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, the December review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> added and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> deleted.</li>
<li>Buying on Wipro is 2.5 days of ADV and 8.2 days of delivery volume, while selling on Bajaj Auto is 4.5 days of ADV and 8.9 days of delivery volume.</li>
<li>The overweight of the Information Technology sector in the Sensex gets even bigger and the Consumer Discretionary sector gets even more underweighted vs the BSE All Cap Index.</li>
</ul>


As expected, the December review of the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) sees Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) added and Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) deleted.
Buying on Wipro is 2.5 days of ADV and 8.2 days of delivery volume, while selling on Bajaj Auto is 4.5 days of ADV and 8.9 days of delivery volume.
The overweight of the Information Technology sector in the Sensex gets even bigger and the Consumer Discretionary sector gets even more underweighted vs the BSE All Cap Index.


SENSEX Dec 21 Index Rebalance: Wipro Added, Bajaj Auto Deleted

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

India-based data management and analytics firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eclerx-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17312:1" rel="noopener">eClerx Services (ECLX IN)</a> released their public announcement document for their latest buyback after market close on 20th September 2021. The buyback was initially proposed in a board meeting on 13th August 2021 and later approved by shareholders (postal ballot) on 16th September 2021.  The buyback price has been set at INR2,850/share and eClerx expects to buy up to 1,063,157 shares through a Tender Offer. The total size of the buyback will be approximately INR3bn (~US$41mn). More below the fold. <hr><div class="content-remarks">For more on Indian Buybacks, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-india-buy-back-guide-2021-regulations-patterns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56892" rel="noopener">Quiddity India Buy-Back Guide 2021: Regulations &amp; Patterns</a> </div>

India-based data management and analytics firm eClerx Services (ECLX IN) released their public announcement document for their latest buyback after market close on 20th September 2021. The buyback was initially proposed in a board meeting on 13th August 2021 and later approved by shareholders (postal ballot) on 16th September 2021.  The buyback price has been set at INR2,850/share and eClerx expects to buy up to 1,063,157 shares through a Tender Offer. The total size of the buyback will be approximately INR3bn (~US$41mn). More below the fold. For more on Indian Buybacks, please see Quiddity India Buy-Back Guide 2021: Regulations &amp; Patterns 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Equity Bottom-Up

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Bottom-Up

On 21 June 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced (<a href="https://ir.nri.com/jp/ir/news/auto_20210621452515/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>) a buyback program of up to 20,000,000 shares (3.30% of shares out) spending up to ¥60 billion, with the program running from 22 June 2021 to 30 December 2021, with possible buying on market and on ToSTNeT-3, but excluding dates in the 10 days around the day after the quarterly results announcements. The company ALSO announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning for up to 16,925,200 shares at today's closing price of ¥3,545/share. That 16.925mm shares at that price = ¥59,999,834,000 so one can assume that if the ToSTNeT-3 buyback is completed to the full extent, that will mean the buyback program will be done tomorrow before the market opens.The announcement suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> intended to sell as many as 14.105 million shares in the buyback leaving 2.815mm shares for other holders if they want to sell Monday's close. But I remind readers that a) short selling is allowed, and b) it is entirely pro rata (with some niggling little procedural exceptions) so if people stepped in to sell, they would probably get a decent portion of their offer sold at that price. More below the fold.

On 21 June 2021, Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced (link) a buyback program of up to 20,000,000 shares (3.30% of shares out) spending up to ¥60 billion, with the program running from 22 June 2021 to 30 December 2021, with possible buying on market and on ToSTNeT-3, but excluding dates in the 10 days around the day after the quarterly results announcements. The company ALSO announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning for up to 16,925,200 shares at today's closing price of ¥3,545/share. That 16.925mm shares at that price = ¥59,999,834,000 so one can assume that if the ToSTNeT-3 buyback is completed to the full extent, that will mean the buyback program will be done tomorrow before the market opens.The announcement suggested that Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) intended to sell as many as 14.105 million shares in the buyback leaving 2.815mm shares for other holders if they want to sell Monday's close. But I remind readers that a) short selling is allowed, and b) it is entirely pro rata (with some niggling little procedural exceptions) so if people stepped in to sell, they would probably get a decent portion of their offer sold at that price. More below the fold. 

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

<div>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.</div><div>
The June review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 November to 30 April to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is made 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN)</a> as a high probability deletion, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> holds the edge over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> as an index inclusion.
There will be between 3-6 days of average delivery volume to trade from passive funds on the stocks that are included into and deleted from the index.
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 18 June.
The June review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 November to 30 April to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is made 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
We see Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) as a high probability deletion, while Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) holds the edge over Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) as an index inclusion.
There will be between 3-6 days of average delivery volume to trade from passive funds on the stocks that are included into and deleted from the index.


Sensex June21 Index Rebalance Preview: Index Committee Has a Decision to Make

In 2016, a Blackstone fund purchased 60.5% of India-based IT Solutions Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> from Hewlett Packard (which had been looking to sell its stake for quite a while after having purchased it in 2008 when it bought out EDS) at Rs 430/share, then conducted an Open Offer to buy more shares at Rs 457 and change. The deal was to purchase 106.2mm shares from the sellers and another 26% or 54.93mm shares via an Open Offer, and if no shares were acquired in the Open Offer, the Blackstone fund would buy the other 20.9mm shares from the HPE entity selling and HPE would own no more shares. 
When the deal was announced, the price was just below Rs 500/share and during the course of the summer the price rose further so that the Open Offer at the time obtained only 0.001% of shares out. 
The shares rose, doubling reasonably quickly as Blackstone quickly revamped operations. Over the years, Blackstone opportunistically bought and sold small slices of the company in market operations. Late last year, it became clear that Blackstone was weighing the possibility of selling its 56.16% stake in the company as the valuation had run and shares were three times where they were when they bought. There were suggestions it might also be related to the possible departure of Blackstone India senior managing director Amit Jain who was rumored to be quitting to take up the co-head spot at Carlyle India. By January, seller due diligence had been conducted, banks were engaged, and Blackstone was en route to selling its stake (and the Buyer would be liable to launch an Open Offer) in its largest India investment to date to one of the four PE houses which were expected to put in bids - Brookfield, Bain, Carlyle, and Permira. 
Final round bids were due 24 February and by early March, the sale had been called off as the prospective lead buyer Carlyle and Blackstone as seller couldn't come to terms.
Today, we have a deal. But it's not Carlyle.
Blackstone is selling to Blackstone.

In 2016, a Blackstone fund purchased 60.5% of India-based IT Solutions Provider Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) from Hewlett Packard (which had been looking to sell its stake for quite a while after having purchased it in 2008 when it bought out EDS) at Rs 430/share, then conducted an Open Offer to buy more shares at Rs 457 and change. The deal was to purchase 106.2mm shares from the sellers and another 26% or 54.93mm shares via an Open Offer, and if no shares were acquired in the Open Offer, the Blackstone fund would buy the other 20.9mm shares from the HPE entity selling and HPE would own no more shares. 
When the deal was announced, the price was just below Rs 500/share and during the course of the summer the price rose further so that the Open Offer at the time obtained only 0.001% of shares out. 
The shares rose, doubling reasonably quickly as Blackstone quickly revamped operations. Over the years, Blackstone opportunistically bought and sold small slices of the company in market operations. Late last year, it became clear that Blackstone was weighing the possibility of selling its 56.16% stake in the company as the valuation had run and shares were three times where they were when they bought. There were suggestions it might also be related to the possible departure of Blackstone India senior managing director Amit Jain who was rumored to be quitting to take up the co-head spot at Carlyle India. By January, seller due diligence had been conducted, banks were engaged, and Blackstone was en route to selling its stake (and the Buyer would be liable to launch an Open Offer) in its largest India investment to date to one of the four PE houses which were expected to put in bids - Brookfield, Bain, Carlyle, and Permira. 
Final round bids were due 24 February and by early March, the sale had been called off as the prospective lead buyer Carlyle and Blackstone as seller couldn't come to terms.
Today, we have a deal. But it's not Carlyle.
Blackstone is selling to Blackstone. 

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

India

Tech Mahindra Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company markets software for telecommunications equipment manufacturers, telecom service providers, software vendors, and systems integrators.

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Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN)

SENSEX Dec 21 Index Rebalance: Wipro Added, Bajaj Auto Deleted

Wipro will be added to the Sensex in December while Bajaj Auto will be deleted. Impact on both stocks is over 8 days of delivery volume to trade....

Brian Freitas

EClerx Buyback: Adding Fuel to Momentum

India based data management firm eClerx Services launched a US$40mn buyback which is expected to open next month. Fundamentally, the stock appears...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

NRI is one of the higher-multiple (forward consensus EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA) Japanese IT service companies. There is a PRE-OPEN ToSTNeT-3 buyback...

Travis Lundy

Sensex June21 Index Rebalance Preview: Index Committee Has a Decision to Make

ONGC is a high probability deletion from the Sensex at the June review. The index committee needs to decide whether to include Wipro or Tata Steel....

Brian Freitas

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

Blackstone is selling its large stake in Mphasis purchased in 2016 to another Blackstone consortium. Price is 3% below here. There may be a 2% div...

Travis Lundy

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SENSEX Dec 21 Index Rebalance: Wipro Added, Bajaj Auto Deleted

Wipro will be added to the Sensex in December while Bajaj Auto will be deleted. Impact on both stocks is over 8 days of delivery volume to trade....

Brian Freitas

EClerx Buyback: Adding Fuel to Momentum

India based data management firm eClerx Services launched a US$40mn buyback which is expected to open next month. Fundamentally, the stock appears...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

NRI is one of the higher-multiple (forward consensus EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA) Japanese IT service companies. There is a *PRE-OPEN* ToSTNeT-3 buyback...

Travis Lundy

Sensex June21 Index Rebalance Preview: Index Committee Has a Decision to Make

ONGC is a high probability deletion from the Sensex at the June review. The index committee needs to decide whether to include Wipro or Tata Steel....

Brian Freitas

Blackstone Sells Mphasis Stake To.... Blackstone and Investors Get a CHEAP Option

Blackstone is selling its large stake in Mphasis purchased in 2016 to another Blackstone consortium. Price is 3% below here. There may be a 2% div...

Travis Lundy

NRI is one of the higher-multiple (forward consensus EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA) Japanese IT service companies. There is a PRE-OPEN ToSTNeT-3 buyback...