Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Tata Motors’ Q4 and FY 2019-20 results were significantly worse than consensus estimates but were in line with our expectations, due to COVID-19 and high operating leverage. There will likely be a substantial deterioration in Q1/20-21, with the company's projected cash burn being in line with our expectations (JLR’s alone should be c. GBP 2 bn). The financial risk profile has also weakened. While the liquidity position seems large (as of FYE 2019-20), this would be driven by the extent of the impact from COVID-19 on sales going forward. We believe that the company's poor results are likely just the tip of the iceberg, as many countries were affected by the pandemic only from mid-March onwards. Hence, the worst effects should be felt in Q1/20-21 (ending in June). While various economies are starting to open up, many locations are suffering second waves of COVID-19 infections. Thus, we expect the global economy to take at least a few years to recover from the pandemic. As a result, we believe Tata Motors' credit profile may become stressed.

  Tata Motors’ Q4 and FY 2019-20 results were significantly worse than consensus estimates but were in line with our expectations, due to COVID-19 and high operating leverage. There will likely be a substantial deterioration in Q1/20-21, with the company's projected cash burn being in line with our expectations (JLR’s alone should be c. GBP 2 bn). The financial risk profile has also weakened. While the liquidity position seems large (as of FYE 2019-20), this would be driven by the extent of the impact from COVID-19 on sales going forward.   We believe that the company's poor results are likely just the tip of the iceberg, as many countries were affected by the pandemic only from mid-March onwards. Hence, the worst effects should be felt in Q1/20-21 (ending in June). While various economies are starting to open up, many locations are suffering second waves of COVID-19 infections. Thus, we expect the global economy to take at least a few years to recover from the pandemic. As a result, we believe Tata Motors' credit profile may become stressed. 

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-6159'>China SCE</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-9757'>Fantasia Holdings Group Co</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8717'>Geo Energy Resources</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8108'>Hopson Development</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14882'>Seazen (Formerly Future Land)</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.China SCEFantasia Holdings Group CoGeo Energy ResourcesHopson DevelopmentSeazen (Formerly Future Land)Tata Motors LtdVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Fantasia Holdings Group Co, Geo Energy Resources, Hopson Development

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-246'>Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14896'>Jingrui Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-216'>Tata Motors Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Ports & Special Economic ZoneJingrui HoldingsTata Motors Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Jingrui Holdings, Tata Motors Ltd

From an investor’s perspective, the month of May was dominated by two issues: the likely rate of the post-pandemic economic recovery, and mounting tensions between China and the US. In addition, China held its annual Two Sessions during the month after a delay due to COVID-19. In this report, we focus on the Government Working Report delivered at the meetings, looking for guidance on the trajectory of policy easing and the stimulus meant to drive a post-pandemic recovery. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  From an investor’s perspective, the month of May was dominated by two issues: the likely rate of the post-pandemic economic recovery, and mounting tensions between China and the US. In addition, China held its annual Two Sessions during the month after a delay due to COVID-19. In this report, we focus on the Government Working Report delivered at the meetings, looking for guidance on the trajectory of policy easing and the stimulus meant to drive a post-pandemic recovery.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Takeaways From China's Two Sessions (2020) - Lucror Analytics

India

Tata Motors Limited manufactures cars and commercial automotive vehicles. The Company designs, manufactures, and sells heavy, medium, and small commercial vehicles including trucks, tankers, vans, buses, ambulances and minibuses. Tata also manufactures small cars and sports utility vehicles.

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Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)

Tata Motors - Earnings Flash - FY 2019-20 Results - Lucror Analytics

Tata Motors’ Q4 and FY 2019-20 results were significantly worse than consensus estimates but were in line with our expectations, due to COVID-19...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, Fantasia Holdings Group Co, Geo Energy Resources, Hopson Development

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Jingrui Holdings, Tata Motors Ltd

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Takeaways From China's Two Sessions (2020) - Lucror Analytics

From an investor’s perspective, the month of May was dominated by two issues: the likely rate of the post-pandemic economic recovery, and mounting...

Lucror Analytics

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