Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.</li>
<li>We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.</li>
</ul>


Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.


Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

<p>The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&amp;P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Manufacturing (Agricultural Equipment).</p>

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&amp;P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Manufacturing (Agricultural Equipment).

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

United States

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

DHT Holdings, Inc. is an independent crude oil tanker company.  The company provides transportation services to oil companies and trades internationally with a fleet of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments.

Sitio Royalties Corp. focuses on investing in mineral and royalty interests in oil basins. The Company acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across a diverse set of operators in unconventional basins within the United States with a specific focus on the Permian Basin.

Earthstone Energy, Inc. is a growth-oriented independent energy company engaged in developing and operating oil and gas properties.  The Company's primary assets are located in the Midland Basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford trend of south Texas.

Callon Petroleum Company is an independent energy company. The Company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties. Callon Petroleum serves customers in the United States.

NextDecade Corporation operates as a liquefied natural gas (LNG) company. The Company focuses on supply and trade of LNG, creation of new natural gas infrastructure, including pipeline and natural gas liquefaction facilities, and treatment of natural gas into LNG, as well as provides technical engineering and design services. NextDecade serves customers worldwide.

Uranium Energy Corporation is a uranium production, development and exploration company. The Company's fully licensed and permitted hobson processing facility is central to all of its projects in South Texas, including the Palangana in-situ recovery project, which is ramping up to full production this year, and the Goliad in-situ recovery project.

Viper Energy Partners LP owns, acquires, exploits, and develops oil and natural gas properties in North America.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates oil and gas refineries. Par Pacific refines, markets, transports, and distributes crude oil in the United States and Canada.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. provides oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company focuses on discovering new petroleum systems and to grow and mature discovered hydrocarbon basins, as well as development and production projects. Kosmos Energy serves customers worldwide.

Beach Energy Limited explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company holds interests in exploration and production tenements in Australia, USA, Egypt, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

Oriental Energy Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company produces LPG using oilfield associated gases, mainly including propane and butane. Zhangjiagang's products are mainly used as industrial gas, as well as chemical raw materials.

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

SFL Corporation Ltd. owns and charters out ships. The Company operates fleet includes crude oil tankers, bulk and ore vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, and jack up oil rigs. SFL serves customers worldwide.

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

The Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited owns and operates cargo ships. The Company's fleet of vessels includes bulk carriers, tankers and offshore supply vessels. The Company also acts as an agent for a number of foreign shipping companies.

Stanmore Coal Ltd. explores for coal in Australia. The Company's interests include a portfolio of coal assets within Queensland's Bowen and Surat Basin coal provinces.

PT Bumi Resources Tbk operates in the exploration and exploitation of coal deposits, including coal mining, and oil exploration activities. The Company offers its services to cement companies and power plants, as well as middle and large scale industrial companies that involve in chemical, mine, and textile businesses. Bumi Resources also has interest in mining gold, silver and copper.

Talos Energy Inc. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company engages in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. Talos Energy serves customers worldwide.

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Talos Energy Inc (TALO US)

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Expectations over the past two weeks for an oversold bounce in $SPX have played out. 4300-4325 (1.5-year support) remains solid floor, but could...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&P 500 is going through a consolidation phase.

Vermilion Research

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