Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e</li>
<li>Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi</a>, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.</li>
<li>1911 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.</li>
</ul>


Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e
Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.
1911 Sumitomo Forestry business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.


Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Isetan Shinjuku expects to post sales in excess of ¥400 billion this year, a record for a single retail store, although most of the growth is from inbound tourists. </li>
<li>But Isetan-Mitsukoshi is working to ensure longer term stability through more sophisticated databases and personalised marketing.</li>
<li>At the same time, it will make better use of real estate assets, investing ¥500 billion around Isetan Shinjuku alone.</li>
</ul>


Isetan Shinjuku expects to post sales in excess of ¥400 billion this year, a record for a single retail store, although most of the growth is from inbound tourists. 
But Isetan-Mitsukoshi is working to ensure longer term stability through more sophisticated databases and personalised marketing.
At the same time, it will make better use of real estate assets, investing ¥500 billion around Isetan Shinjuku alone.


Isetan-Mitsukoshi Bets on Flagships and Real Estate

<ul>
<li>We have long forecast the demise of regional department stores and the emergence of an elite group of luxury emporiums in big cities and this had been happening gradually. </li>
<li>Until the last year. Now the gap between the two is widening sharply, boosted in part by tourists flocking to big city stores, resulting in both record sales and profits.</li>
<li>At Matsuya Ginza for example, duty-free sales accounted for an historic 33% of sales last year. Further growth is expected.</li>
</ul>


We have long forecast the demise of regional department stores and the emergence of an elite group of luxury emporiums in big cities and this had been happening gradually. 
Until the last year. Now the gap between the two is widening sharply, boosted in part by tourists flocking to big city stores, resulting in both record sales and profits.
At Matsuya Ginza for example, duty-free sales accounted for an historic 33% of sales last year. Further growth is expected.


<ul>
<li>The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.</li>
<li>But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).</li>
<li>Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.</li>
</ul>


The rebound in tourist numbers to Japan after Covid was inevitable given the latent demand and ongoing popularity of the country as a destination.
But more surprising has been the huge diversity of nationalities, making up for the lag in Chinese visitors, boosting traffic at key retailers (as listed below).
Also new is the higher spend per visitor thanks to the cheap Yen, boosting retailers across the spectrum. Data from Google and Qunar suggests much more growth to come.


Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.</li>
<li>Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.</li>
<li>Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.
Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.
Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Japan

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

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Takashimaya (8233 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Isetan-Mitsukoshi Bets on Flagships and Real Estate

Isetan Shinjuku anticipates record sales exceeding ¥400 billion, while focusing on long-term stability and higher margins through improved...

Michael Causton

New Records For (Some) Dept. Stores

Regional department stores are declining while luxury emporiums in big cities are thriving, with a widening gap between the two due to tourist...

Michael Causton

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Michael Causton

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

​Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Isetan-Mitsukoshi Bets on Flagships and Real Estate

​Isetan Shinjuku anticipates record sales exceeding ¥400 billion, while focusing on long-term stability and higher margins through improved...

Michael Causton

New Records For (Some) Dept. Stores

​Regional department stores are declining while luxury emporiums in big cities are thriving, with a widening gap between the two due to tourist...

Michael Causton

Japan Tourist Spending Per Head up 50% on 2019 Amid Record Arrivals

​Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Michael Causton

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

​Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Isetan Shinjuku anticipates record sales exceeding ¥400 billion, while focusing on long-term stability and higher margins through improved...

Regional department stores are declining while luxury emporiums in big cities are thriving, with a widening gap between the two due to tourist...

Japan's tourism rebound post-Covid was expected due to high demand, but diverse nationalities and increased spending per visitor are boosting...

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...