'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 6th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/143/original/image_48903433121617743112480.png?1617743113" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199143"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi (7649 JP)</a> should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-a-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20755:1" rel="noopener">San-A (2659 JP)</a> continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/144/original/image_43671087431617743435802.png?1617743436" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199144"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/145/original/image_77617965041617743669042.png?1617743669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199145"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/146/original/image_76585369451617743732286.png?1617743732" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199146"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>  revises up but to below TTM, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/147/original/image_68585463461617743969672.png?1617743970" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199147"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/149/original/image_25082609781617744023412.png?1617744024" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199149"></figure>

• RESULTS - 6th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, San-A (2659 JP) continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Lawson (2651 JP)  revises up but to below TTM, while Takashimaya (8233 JP) expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06  -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.</p><p>Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.</p>

Department store sales in 2020 dropped to levels not seen since 1975 and the latest state of emergency has led to more store closures. In some ways, the remaining department stores did well to achieve CY2020 sales only 25% lower than the year before and city centre stores should revive once traffic returns.Meanwhile, there are opportunities to rethink how former department store buildings can be redeveloped.

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The retail theme continues in Monday's best and worst pairing - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a>. The former is a 'sleeper' that has been unduly overlooked, while the latter's earnings momentum has turned negative again.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/324/original/2020-12-29_06-26-11.png?1609190783" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180324"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/325/original/2020-12-29_06-27-27.png?1609190862" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180325"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST • The retail theme continues in Monday's best and worst pairing - Shimamura (8227 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP). The former is a 'sleeper' that has been unduly overlooked, while the latter's earnings momentum has turned negative again.Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​28 -

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p></div><div>
<p>We resume our results &amp; revision updates after a Christmas break as the February/May/ August/November year-end cohort of companies kick off disclosure. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP) </a>although we would note that earnings momentum is fading for the former and bottoming out for the latter. With Nitori mean-reverting from being Overbought in August, Takashimaya has outperformed Nitori by 8% over the last three months. As the impact of COVID wanes by the Sroing, we expect this performance 'gap' to close further in 2021.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/167/original/2020-12-28_06-14-04.png?1609103740" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180167"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/168/original/2020-12-28_06-16-21.png?1609103792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180168"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/180/169/original/2020-12-28_06-22-11.png?1609104143" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="180169"></figure></section><p></p>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST • 
We resume our results &amp; revision updates after a Christmas break as the February/May/ August/November year-end cohort of companies kick off disclosure. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers Nitori (9843 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP) although we would note that earnings momentum is fading for the former and bottoming out for the latter. With Nitori mean-reverting from being Overbought in August, Takashimaya has outperformed Nitori by 8% over the last three months. As the impact of COVID wanes by the Sroing, we expect this performance 'gap' to close further in 2021.



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​25 - Nitori & Takashimaya

<p>Last month’s confirmation that Sogo Seibu is closing five more stores ends a terrible six months for department store chains.</p>
<p>Things started to look bad for the sector well before the lockdown as falling tourist numbers from South Korea, the impact of the consumption tax hike, and cautious consumers at home stole the gains made in the previous year.</p>
<p>A survey of 10,000 consumers earlier this year between the ages of 20 and 70 and <strong>65% replied that they rarely visited department stores, if at all.</strong> This is up from 53.4% in 2011.</p>
<p>That the sector is in trouble is well-known but the shake out will be both accelerated and intensified by the current crisis, meaning that even fewer stores will survive, leaving just 100 or so true department stores, 50% less than now.</p>
<p>The good news is that the survivors will likely thrive, particularly <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a>. While the entire sector is currently a sell, investors looking at the long-term may see value in a few of the leading firms.</p>
<p><strong>The following is an in-depth review of the sector with the following sections:</strong></p>
<ol>
<li>Summary of key trends</li>
<li>Overview of Sales and analysis of strong and weak categories now and in the future</li>
<li>Rankings of chains and stores by category sales</li>
<li>Analysis of regional differences</li>
<li>Ranking of Top 30 firms by Sales and OPM and analysis of strong vs weak chains</li>
<li>Ranking of Top 50 stores and analysis of sales density performance</li>
<li>Review of solutions to decline and which firms will survive and thrive.</li>
</ol>
<p><em>This insight is labelled bearish because the sector will continue to decline but a small number of firms will have a sustained future and see higher growth in operating margins once the current crisis is over.</em></p>

Last month’s confirmation that Sogo Seibu is closing five more stores ends a terrible six months for department store chains.
Things started to look bad for the sector well before the lockdown as falling tourist numbers from South Korea, the impact of the consumption tax hike, and cautious consumers at home stole the gains made in the previous year.
A survey of 10,000 consumers earlier this year between the ages of 20 and 70 and 65% replied that they rarely visited department stores, if at all. This is up from 53.4% in 2011.
That the sector is in trouble is well-known but the shake out will be both accelerated and intensified by the current crisis, meaning that even fewer stores will survive, leaving just 100 or so true department stores, 50% less than now.
The good news is that the survivors will likely thrive, particularly J Front Retailing (3086 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP). While the entire sector is currently a sell, investors looking at the long-term may see value in a few of the leading firms.
The following is an in-depth review of the sector with the following sections:

Summary of key trends
Overview of Sales and analysis of strong and weak categories now and in the future
Rankings of chains and stores by category sales
Analysis of regional differences
Ranking of Top 30 firms by Sales and OPM and analysis of strong vs weak chains
Ranking of Top 50 stores and analysis of sales density performance
Review of solutions to decline and which firms will survive and thrive.

This insight is labelled bearish because the sector will continue to decline but a small number of firms will have a sustained future and see higher growth in operating margins once the current crisis is over.

Japan's Department Stores in 2020: The Biggest Crisis Since World War II

Japan

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

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Takashimaya (8233 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/28 -

The retail theme continues in Monday's best and worst pairing - Shimamura (8227 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP)._____

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/25 - Nitori & Takashimaya

We resume our results & revision updates after a Christmas break. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers Nitori (9843 JP) and Takashimaya...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Stores in 2020: The Biggest Crisis Since World War II

Japan's department store sector will continue to contract so it is right to be bearish on the sector. However, the clear out will allow some firms...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Store Sales Drop to 1975 Levels

Department stores have been hit hard by the current crisis but were struggling before that. As a result, sales have fallen to 1975 levels. Sales...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​28 -

The retail theme continues in Monday's best and worst pairing - Shimamura (8227 JP) and J Front Retailing (3086 JP)._____

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​25 - Nitori & Takashimaya

We resume our results & revision updates after a Christmas break. Friday's best and worst pair are retailers Nitori (9843 JP) and Takashimaya...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Department Stores in 2020: The Biggest Crisis Since World War II

Japan's department store sector will continue to contract so it is right to be bearish on the sector. However, the clear out will allow some firms...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/28 -

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/25 - Nitori & Takashimaya