Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing </li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance
TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing 
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Former TSMC R&amp;D director Konrad Young advocates for a partnership between Taiwan and the UK in quantum technology.</li><li>Chinese car brands attract young Thai consumers with innovative smart cockpit features, winning over the market.</li><li>Xiaomi implements strategic changes in India after a decade of entering the market, adapting to new trends and demands.</li></ul>

Former TSMC R&amp;D director Konrad Young advocates for a partnership between Taiwan and the UK in quantum technology.Chinese car brands attract young Thai consumers with innovative smart cockpit features, winning over the market.Xiaomi implements strategic changes in India after a decade of entering the market, adapting to new trends and demands.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Jun-2024): Konrad Young pushes Taiwan-UK collab in quantum tech

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +16.1% Premium, After Sharp Drop, Will Be Interesting to See If Spread Will Remain Within the Recent ~15-25% Range</li>
<li>ASE: +7.4% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread Given Recent Trading Range</li>
<li>ChipMOS: -2.4% Discount Repesents Extreme Low of End of Range; Can Consider Going Long the Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +16.1% Premium, After Sharp Drop, Will Be Interesting to See If Spread Will Remain Within the Recent ~15-25% Range
ASE: +7.4% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread Given Recent Trading Range
ChipMOS: -2.4% Discount Repesents Extreme Low of End of Range; Can Consider Going Long the Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot</li>
<li>Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E </li>
<li>Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech and Nvidia Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings Next Week; Microsoft Build Conference Could Showcase Edge AI Copilot
Hon Hai: Traditional Server Market Now Adding to AI Growth; Expects Market Share Gains in 2024E 
Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Jun-2024): Konrad Young pushes Taiwan-UK collab in quantum tech

Konrad Young advocates for Taiwan-UK quantum tech partnership, Chinese car brands captivate Thai buyers, Xiaomi adapts strategy in India, Microsoft...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount

TSMC and ASE's ADR premiums have both dropped sharply. It will be interesting to see if TSMC's premium will drop further to below 15%. ChipMOS's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Jun-2024): Konrad Young pushes Taiwan-UK collab in quantum tech

Konrad Young advocates for Taiwan-UK quantum tech partnership, Chinese car brands captivate Thai buyers, Xiaomi adapts strategy in India, Microsoft...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC & ASE Premiums Drop Sharply; ChipMOS Extreme Discount

TSMC and ASE's ADR premiums have both dropped sharply. It will be interesting to see if TSMC's premium will drop further to below 15%. ChipMOS's...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: All Eyes on Nvidia Results Next Week; Microsoft Copilot Edge AI To Be Showcased?

​Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan's earnings season is wrapping up but one of the most important companies for the market, Nvidia, is set to release results next week.